The US Realtor magazine produced a list of 25 trends in its December 2004 issue â€“ starting with a note that the National Association of Realtors now has more than one million members â€“ up more than 40% in 3 years.
Added to the increase in sales teams, one of the trends is for them to have coaches.
The magazine doesn’t see any shortage of work for all these extra agents & sales people â€“ it quoted a May 2004 report by 5 housing industry economists who said there had never been a national house price bubble in the US and, with falling unemployment, low mortgage rates & an accelerating economy “the likelihood of a decline in home prices at the national level is quite remote.”
All 3 bases for the conclusion above are suspect, given the expanding US deficit may cut job prospects or wage levels or both, and loan rates are likely to rise.
That report, America‘s home forecast:The next decade for housing & mortgage finance, was compiled by senior economists at Government lenders Fanny Mae & Freddy Mac, the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Home Builders and Independent Community Bankers of America.
Among their conclusions:
Robust demand will require the production of about 2 million new housing units/year
Total home sales will average about 8.5 million/year
The national home ownership rate will rise above today’s record level and will most likely exceed 70% by 2013
Home price appreciation should average around 5%/year from 2004-2013 but could be above 6% if supply constraints continue to tighten, and
Mortgage originations are projected to average nearly $US3 trillion/year and residential mortgage debt is projected to grow by nearly 8.25%/year.
The US Home Ownership Alliance will run an update conference on the forecasts on Wednesday 19 January (Thursday 20 January NZ time).
Condos top the trend list
Back to the Realtor trends â€“ first on the list is condos, particularly in top brackets (condominiums, which, according to the definition just entered in the BD Central glossary, equates to strata-title ownership of an apartment, accompanied by interest in the overall apartment property’s body corporate).
“Condos now account for 12.8% of the housing market, a 33.3% rise over the last decade, and they’ve appreciated at an unprecedented double-digit pace for the last 4 years.
“By the end of the 3rd quarter of 2004, the median existing condo/co-op price was $US197,000, an 18% increase over the same period in 2003 and higher than the $US188,500 3rd-quarter median price for a single-family home. Credit the concentration of condos in expensive coastal areas and a spate of luxury condo construction & conversion in cities big & small,” US Realtor said.
There’s no distinction here between owner-occupier apartments and the investment market for ownership of individual apartments. US statistics tend to treat rentals as whole blocks with long-term tenants.
Anytime anywhere internet access
Security measures to increase safeguards for sales & property information stored on that mobile computer
Teaming up of sales staff
2nd homes (sales of 2nd homes rose 24% from 2001 to 2003)
New homes continue to get bigger, though the trend is slowing (the US average has gone from 140mÂ² in 1970 to 217mÂ² in 2004; the average new home in New Zealand has also been rising, to 181mÂ² in 2004)
“Different mousetraps,” as Realtor puts it. Nontraditional agency models include brokerages operating largely on the web, companies that charge separate fees for different parts of a transaction instead of an overall commission, and “freedom shops”, where there’s a licence holder but few resources.
Websites: Realtor Magazine, 25 hot trends