Tag Archives | QV

QV says rise in average Auckland home value just $4583 for year

The average residential property value rose by 6.6% ($41,660) nationally last year, according to Quotable Value Ltd’s index.

In Auckland, the rise was just $4583 (0.4%) for the year.

In a few places the movement over the year was downward, including a 0.1% fall in Christchurch.

QV recaps

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said the general trend was for slowing in the rate of growth due to loan:value ratio (LVR) speed limits, stricter retail bank lending criteria & uncertainty ahead of the election, but in some areas values rose rapidly while decreasing in others.

Ms Rush said sales volumes fell every month from the 2016 figures. From February-October the drop in sales exceeded 20%/month, before picking up in November, when a post-election late spring surge saw them jump to just 10% lower than November 2016 levels.

“A slowdown in the rate of value growth in the housing market that began in the latter part of 2016 with the introduction of LVR speed limits, requiring a 40% deposit by investors, continued throughout 2017.

“The frenzy in the market of the previous 3 years, induced by high numbers of investors in the market, subsided and we saw a return to more normal levels of activity in housing markets around the country.

“By October, nationwide annual value growth had slowed to 3.9%, the lowest rate of growth seen in 5 years, and for the Auckland region it slowed to -0.6%, the slowest annual rate of growth seen there since Mach 2011.

“High prices, constraints on finance caused by tightening in retail banks lending criteria and higher deposit requirements removed many buyers from the market and sales volumes plummeted.

“Potential housing policy changes in the lead-up to the election also caused uncertainty and people took a wait-&-see approach, causing activity to slow dramatically over the winter quarter, and this resulted in value decreases in many areas.

“The usual annual spring surge was very slow to arrive and listing levels and market activity did not pick up until November and December and this can be seen in both sales volumes and value growth recovering in the last two months of the year.

“The annual rate of value growth recovered to 6.4% in November & 6.6% in December, and sales volumes for November lifted 21.0% higher than in October. This was partly due to buyers delaying purchasing until the election result was decided, and may also have been in part due to some buyers racing to purchase before the new foreign buyers’ ban in December.

“The slight easing in LVR restrictions by the Reserve Bank due this month is likely to help improve activity & demand in the market as we move through the summer months.

“Low interest rates, relatively high net migration & lack of supply means market drivers remain, and we are likely to see values hold for the most part during 2018 in the main centres, but the trend of lower rates of growth is likely to continue.

“However, areas where investors were previously very active may continue to see values drop back where prices remain too high for first-homebuyers, particularly in Auckland, Hamilton & surrounding districts.

“Some regional areas may continue to see stronger value growth than the main centres during the year.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for December. The first percentage is for the 3 months to December, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries:

Auckland region, $1,051,762, 1.2%, 0.4%, 92.5%
Rodney, $941,029, 0.1%, 1.3%, 60.4%
North, $961,471, 1.6%, 0.4%, 60.1%
Hibiscus Coast, $921,890, -1.7%, 2.0%, 57.0%
North Shore, $1,226,509, 2.6%, 0.7%, 90.1%
Coastal, $1,405,509, 3.1%, 0.7%, 86.5%
Onewa, $981,844, 2.1%, 0.6%, 97.9%
North Harbour, $1,192,164, 2.1%, 0.6%, 96.2%
Waitakere, $824,271, 1.0%, -1.9%, 94.4%
Auckland City, $1,245,536, 1.6%, 2.2%, 100.1%
Central, $1,085,314, 0.6%, 2.2%, 90.6%
East, $1,575,133, 2.8%, 3.6%, 97.7%
South, $1,100,710, 0.1%, -0.4%, 104.5%
Islands (low volume), $1,161,110, 6.6%, 13.7%, 81.6%
Manukau, $895,606, -0.3%, -1.0%, 95.7%
East, $1,150,996, -0.7%, -0.9%, 93.1%
Central, $695,724, 1.1%, 1.1%, 85.1%
North-west, $769,615, -0.3%, -1.5%, 108.3%
Papakura, $696,713, 2.6%, 2.2%, 93.7%
Franklin, $666,676, 0.5%, 1.0%, 68.5%

Northern border, down country & national:

Far North, $421,582, 3.0%, 11.8%, 5.9%
Kaipara (low volume), $496,551, -3.7%, 6.2%, 25.2%
Hamilton, $543,446, -0.5%, 1.6%, 50.3%
Tauranga, $693,725, 1.0%, 3.2%, 44.1%
Gisborne, $293,346, -0.6%, 8.9%, -1.3%
Wellington region, $628,450, 3.6%, 9.4%, 37.9%
Christchurch, $493,706, 0.4%, -0.1%, 30.1%
Dunedin, $391,098, 2.7%, 10.4%, 36.6%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,111,995, 3.0%, 8.8%, 61.7%
Total NZ, $669,565, 3.6%, 6.6%, 61.6%

Link to full index: QV house price index for December 2017

Attribution: QV tables & release.

Continue Reading

QV house price index shows uptick around Auckland

Average house values recorded by Quotable Value Ltd (QV) for the last 2 months, and rolling 3-monthly percentage shifts through to October & November, show a barely perceptible upward tick in Auckland in November.

Below, I’ve listed a comparison of average values around Auckland in the last 2 months, along with rolling 3-monthly shifts through to October & November.

Secondly, I’ve listed latest average values in Auckland and for a spread of other places around the country, along with QV’s index movements for the last 3 months, 12 months and since the market’s previous peak at the end of 2007. You can check QV’s full index from the link at the foot of the page, but note that QV puts 12 months ahead of 3 months, then goes back to the 10-year figure. I switch the first 2 columns every month, so the latest 3-monthly figure comes first.

In QV’s 2 graphs you can see the levelling off in Auckland since mid-year, and how areas around Auckland (the pre-2010 council areas) have tracked in the last 5 years.

And last, you can read the QV commentaries nationally & for Auckland.

The recent upward shift

For the first set of figures below, I’ve taken QV’s most recent rolling 3-monthly changes to show more clearly the recent upward shift in Auckland, which followed a spreading over several months of plateauing, then of slight decline.

The figures in this set compare the average value in November with that in October (in brackets), and the rolling 3-monthly movements to November, with the 3 months to October in brackets.

Quotable Value’s average current value is the average (mean) value of all developed residential properties in the area based on the latest index. It’s not an average or median sales price, which the Real Estate Institute and Auckland agency Barfoot & Thompson use in their monthly calculations. Those measures only take into account what happens to have sold in the period.

All up, there are 20 statistical divisions – the region, under that the 7 cities & districts which formed the super-city in 2010 and which statisticians generally still use, and under those 7 a geographic breakdown in 4 of the old council areas.

In the 3 months to October, 15 of the 20 showed declines in value. Roll through to the 3 months to November, and only 7 showed declines.

The average dollar value shows 15 up from October to November, 5 down.

If you look only at the most local areas, ignoring the regional & whole old council figures (but including Waitakere, Papakura & Franklin, which don’t have further breakdowns), you’ll find 5 down & 10 up in the latest 3 months, whereas in the 3 months to October 10 were down and 5 were up.

Auckland region, $1,045,741 ($1,038,722), 0.4% (-0.5%)
Rodney, $935,590 ($933,909), -1.1% (-1.7%)
North, $956,318 ($954,769), -0.6% (-1.8%)
Hibiscus Coast, $916,063 ($913,845), -1.6% (-1.5%)
North Shore, $1,212,617 ($1,201,452), 1.0% (-0.1%)
Coastal, $1,380,575 ($1,362,746), 0.5% (-1.3%)
Onewa, $974,440 ($981,196), 1.8% (3.0%)
North Harbour, $1,190,355 ($1,168,764), 0.9% (-1.0%)
Waitakere, $821,105 ($818,706), 0.6% (-0.1%)
Auckland City, $1,241,504 ($1,223,913), 0.7% (-0.9%)
Central, $1,086,373 ($1,079,721), 0.2% (-0.3%)
East, $1,570,354 ($1,534,549), 1.8% (-0.7%)
South, $1,094,265 ($1,090,843), -0.6% (-1.4%)
Islands (low volume), $1,155,463 ($1,114,609), 3.5% (0.8%)
Manukau, $891,394 ($893,580), -0.9% (-0.5%)
East, $1,144,569 ($1,151,198), -1.9% (-1.3%)
Central, $687,444 ($690,284), 0.7% (0.5%)
North-west, $770,341 ($764,261), -0.3% (-0.4%)
Papakura, $692,175 ($684,268), 3.9% (1.3%)
Franklin, $659,650 ($665,843), 0.5% (1.1%)


Below, the dollar figure is the average value for November. The first percentage is for the 3 months to November, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries:

Auckland region, $1,045,741, 0.4%, -0.5%, 91.4%
Rodney, $935,590, -1.1%, 1.3%, 59.5%
North, $956,318, -0.6%, 0.7%, 59.2%
Hibiscus Coast, $916,063, -1.6%, 2.4%, 56.0%
North Shore, $1,212,617, 1.0%, -1.0%, 87.9%
Coastal, $1,380,575, 0.5%, -1.5%, 83.2%
Onewa, $974,440, 1.8%, -1.0%, 96.5%
North Harbour, $1,190,355, 0.9%, 0.2%, 95.9%
Waitakere, $821,105, 0.6%, -2.9%, 93.7%
Auckland City, $1,241,504, 0.7%, 1.6%, 99.4%
Central, $1,086,373, 0.2%, 3.0%, 90.8%
East, $1,570,354, 1.8%, 3.3%, 97.1%
South, $1,094,265, -0.6%, -1.9%, 103.3%
Islands (low volume), $1,155,463, 3.5%, 12.2%, 80.7%
Manukau, $891,394, -0.9%, -1.6%, 94.7%
East, $1,144,569, -1.9%, -2.0%, 92.0%
Central, $687,444, 0.7%, -1.3%, 82.9%
North-west, $770,341, -0.3%, -0.3%, 108.5%
Papakura, $692,175, 3.9%, 1.8%, 92.4%
Franklin, $659,650, 0.5%, 1.8%, 66.8%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $499,955, 0.5%, 9.4%, 26.2%
Kaipara (low volume), $492,074, -4.3%, 13.0%, 24.0%
Hamilton, $544,050, -0.1%, 1.4%, 50.5%
Tauranga, $687,310, -1.0%, 3.3%, 42.7%
Wellington region, $621,289, 2.6%, 9.8%, 36.3%
Christchurch, $493,899, 0.2%, -1.5%, 30.2%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,105,213, 0.7%, 10.5%, 60.7%
Invercargill, $251,884, 4.6%, 8.0%, 14.2%
Total NZ, $664,698, 3.6%, 6.4%, 60.4%

The QV commentaries

Quotable Value said in its release today its latest monthly house price index “shows nationwide residential property values for November increased 6.4% over the past year, which is a much faster rate of increase than last month’s annual growth of 3.9%.

“Values rose by 3.6% over the past 3 months, which is also much faster than last month, when the market slowed to a quarterly growth of 0.9%.

“The nationwide average value is now $664,485, which is 60.4% above the previous market peak of late 2007. When adjusted for inflation, the nationwide annual increase drops slightly to 4.4% and values are now 33.9% above the 2007 peak.

“Meanwhile, residential property value growth across the Auckland region was down 0.5% year on year, which is the slowest annual rate since March 2011, but values ticked up over the past quarter, rising by 0.4%.

“The average value for the Auckland region is slightly higher than last month at $1,045,741, and values are now on average 91.4% higher than the previous peak of 2007. When adjusted for inflation, values dropped 2.4% over the past year and are 59.7% above the 2007 peak.”

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said: “It appears the spring/summer upturn has finally arrived in the housing market. Nationwide value growth has surged 3.6% over the past 3 months, led by stronger growth in Wellington, Dunedin & many other regional centres around the country.

“Meanwhile, Auckland & Christchurch values also ticked up slightly over the past 3 months, bucking a downward trend seen over the past couple of months.

“However, values in Hamilton & Tauranga ticked down slightly and some areas to the south & north of Auckland that have seen very strong growth in recent years also saw values drop significantly, including the Kaipara & Hauraki districts, both down around 4.0% over the past quarter.”

Banking influences

“The easing in loan:value ratio (LVR) restrictions in January, and retail banks lending criteria, is likely to help improve activity & demand in housing the market as we move through the summer months, but it’s possible the usual slowdown over the Christmas period may mean we don’t see the full impact of this until February & March next year.”

QV on Auckland

QV Auckland senior consultant James Steele said: “There’s been no significant change to the market dynamic since the change of government, values are holding in well located areas while they have dropped back in some areas further out of the city centre.

“An oversupply in some areas of Manukau is continuing to cause a decrease in prices, particularly in large new subdivisions which are above the median house price, while in parts of Waitakere values have also dropped back in some suburbs.

“However, other tightly held areas, particularly in central Auckland, are still doing well and seeing values still rising.

“A lack of pressure on property owners to sell, particularly given low interest rates & solid rental levels, has meant that the large decrease in demand over the past year instigated by LVR restrictions has meant prices have remained relatively flat.

“Across the board, we are still seeing a mixture of strong & weak sales where buyers can be more selective under more ‘normal’ market conditions and, where a particular vendor has a strong desire to sell, a buyer can usually be found, but perhaps at a discount to the market peak.

“Some developers are seeing a gap in the market where they are able to pick up a property at a discount and ‘add value’ through resource consents, taking advantage of the favourable development opportunities presented by the unitary plan.

“However, finance can be an issue in completion of such developments and often they can be offloaded as a ‘ready-to-go’ project to a developer with the financial capacity to see it through.

“Over the next year, if the availability of finance improves and market demand dictates, we would expect to see a number of smallscale, high density infill developments come to the market as more consents are approved.”

Link: Full QV house price index for November 2017

Attribution: QV tables & release.

Continue Reading

Auckland house price index falls, still up nationally

A slowdown – but still rising. That’s the national picture of house price movements from Quotable Value Ltd.

In Auckland, where prices soared ahead of the less meteoric rise in rest of the country and began to slow down sooner, QV’s rolling monthly index has, at best, been stalled this year but otherwise in slight decline.

For the last 3 months, the Auckland index fell 0.5%. From a year ago, it was down 0.6%.

QV said the average value in Auckland was still above $1 million – sitting at $1,038,722 in the 3 months to October – and values on average were 90.1% above the previous peak at the end of 2007.

Adjusted for inflation, Auckland values fell 2.5% over the last year and were 58.6% above the 2007 peak.

Nationally, the index rose 3.9% over the last year – the slowest rate since 2012 – and rose 0.9% over the last 3 months. The national average value for the last year months was $646,807, up 56.1% from the 2007 peak. Adjusted for inflation, the national increase was 2%, and the rise from 2007 30.3%.

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said: “The CoreLogic buyer classification data is showing the nationwide share of sales to investors has dropped back to 38.5% from a high of 40.5% in 2014 in favour of first-homebuyers, whose share has risen to 21.6%.”

Auckland market adjustments

In Auckland, QV senior consultant James Steele said: “While the rate of value growth remains subdued, values are relatively stable and there is still strong competition for well presented & located homes, which continue to achieve strong sales prices.

“It appears market activity has returned to more normal levels in outer suburbs, with more properties having asking prices, and there’s more time for buyers to carry out due diligence or get valuations & building inspections.

“Listings levels have also not experienced the usual spring surge, and only those who need to sell appear to be listing properties.

Developers dropping prices

“Some developers who need to sell sections & homes in larger scale greenfield developments are finding they having to drop their prices to achieve sales.

“Examples of this are being seen in Flat Bush, where prices for vacant fully serviced sections that were selling in the high $700,000s last year are now selling in the early $600,000s.

“This drop in land value in the area has also seen the sales prices of completed new homes drop back, and these new homes are also taking longer to sell.”

“It appears the difficulty in gaining finances to purchase due to retail banks’ stricter lending criteria is a contributing factor in this, as well as lower demand for this type of housing product and an over-supply of sections & new homes in the area.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for October. The first percentage is for the 3 months to October, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries:

Auckland region, $1,038,722, -0.5%, -0.6%, 90.1%
Rodney, $933,909, -1.7%, 1.6%, 59.2%
North, $954,769, -1.8%, 1.5%, 59.0%
Hibiscus Coast, $913,845, -1.5%, 1.9%, 55.6%
North Shore, $1,201,452, -0.1%, -1.6%, 86.2%
Coastal, $1,362,746, -1.3%, -2.0%, 80.8%
Onewa, $981,196, 3.0%, -0.9%, 97.8%
North Harbour, $1,168,764, -1.0%, -0.9%, 92.3%
Waitakere, $818,706, -0.1%, -2.2%, 93.1%
Auckland City, $1,223,913, -0.9%, 1.2%, 96.6%
Central, $1,079,721, -0.3%, 3.8%, 89.6%
East, $1,534,549, -0.7%, 2.5%, 92.6%
South, $1,090,843, -1.4%, -2.0%, 102.6%
Islands (low volume), $1,114,609, 0.8%, 7.9%, 74.4%
Manukau, $893,580, -0.5%, -1.4%, 95.2%
East, $1,151,198, -1.3%, -1.9%, 93.1%
Central, $690,284, 0.5%, -1.2%, 83.6%
North-west, $764,261, -0.4%, -0.6%, 106.9%
Papakura, $684,268, 1.3%, 0.2%, 90.2%
Franklin, $665,843, 1.1%, 3.8%, 68.3%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $495,464, 0.3%, 9.6%, 25.0%
Kaipara (low volume), $505,010, -3.2%, 15.8%, 27.3%
Hamilton, $688,533, 0.9%, 0.2%, 53.1%
Tauranga, $687,241, -0.6%, 5.4%, 42.7%
Wellington region, $738,742, 2.0%, 10.0%, 38.8%
Christchurch, $490,429, -0.9%, -1.6%, 29.3%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,092,736, 0.0%, 12.1%, 58.9%
Invercargill, $247,823, 2.1%, 8.1%, 12.4%
Total NZ, $646,807, 0.9%, 3.9%, 56.1%

Link: QV house price index for October 2017

Attribution: QV release.

Continue Reading

Few shifts in QV house price indexes

Quotable Value’s monthly house price indexes for Auckland are mostly stuck in the ±1% range for the last 3 months, already evident from a tighter auction market, and in today’s monthly index release the government agency looks forward to changes that might arise from the negotiations to secure the Government benches.

“What will be most interesting will be whether a new government supports the relaxing of the Reserve Bank’s loan:value (LVR) restrictions as well as what support policies get rolled out to help first-homebuyers get onto the property escalator.”

There is an expectation in that “property escalator” terminology that buying a house is to buy an investment which will rise in value.

It remains a fact of life that up is good, down is bad. At the same time, the clamour continues for more housing that is cheaper.

The pause in price rises in most of Auckland this year tells you that rises aren’t automatic or continuous, but the conclusion is inescapable that, without firm action to provide far more housing at the bottom of the price scale, escalation is inevitable.

Outside Auckland, the catchup continues, although outliers like Invercargill will never catch up (its index is up 10.9% in the decade since the global financial crisis began, compared to 104% in the southern suburbs on Auckland’s isthmus & 109% in the north-west of the old Manukau City). Even further behind Invercargill in the catchup stakes, Opotiki’s index is down 4% over the last decade and the West Coast is generally down, Greymouth by 14.6% over the last decade.

Around Auckland, the central city & central Manukau were out of kilter, both rising 0.6% over the last 3 months, and the Onewa area on the North Shore rose 0.5%.

Rural Rodney fell 3.9% over the last 3 months but was up 3.7% over 12 months.

For most of the region, shifts for the latest quarter were within a range of 1% up or down.

QV said its national index rose 4.3% over 12 months, reduced to 2.5% when adjusted for inflation, and reduced from 56% to 30.2% net of inflation since the 2007 peak.

In Auckland, the 0.8% gain over 12 months turned into a 1% decline net of inflation. The 90.1% gain since 2007 was reduced to 58.7% net of inflation.

Reductions spread around country

QV national spokesperson David Nagel said in today’s release: “The reductions in quarterly value growth have extended from just the main centres last month to almost all the 15 major urban areas we track, with the exception of Rotorua, Palmerston North, Dunedin & Invercargill.

“The year-on-year growth is still showing double digit gains in many of New Zealand’s provincial towns. However, the quarterly change shows a gradual slowing of the property market in almost all city locations.

“Values are reflecting small decreases in all but a few isolated pockets of Auckland, while Tauranga & Christchurch have also shown a small decline over the past quarter.
“The normal spring surge in property listings still hasn’t eventuated throughout most of the country, and this lack of supply has helped insulate the market from more significant falls in values.

“While the property markets appear to have run out of puff in the main urban areas, there’s still plenty of activity in the smaller provincial towns which were slower getting started.

Policy impacts awaited

“While there is uncertainty around who will govern the country in the coming weeks, there are policies that, if agreed upon under a coalition government, could influence the property market.

“These include a gradual reduction on immigration numbers which has previously helped fuel the property market, particularly in Auckland and the increase in housing supply.

“What will be most interesting will be whether a new government supports the relaxing of the Reserve Bank’s loan:value (LVR) restrictions as well as what support policies get rolled out to help first-homebuyers get onto the property escalator.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for September. The first percentage is for the 3 months to September, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries:

Auckland region, $1,039,066, -0.6%, 0.8%, 90.1%
Rodney, $939,955, -1.7%, 5.0%, 60.3%
North, $946,744, -3.9%, 3.7%, 57.6%
Hibiscus Coast, $937,359, 0.9%, 6.9%, 59.6%
North Shore, $1,195,052, -0.7%, -1.1%, 85.2%
Coastal, 1,363,735, -0.9%, -0.9%, 81.0%
Onewa, $961,224, 0.5%, -1.5%, 93.8%
North Harbour, $1,167,255, -2.0%, -0.9%, 92.1%
Waitakere, $816,408, -0.9%, -1.0%, 92.5%
Auckland City, $1,226,375, -0.1%, 2.7%, 97.0%
Central, $1,079,348, 0.6%, 5.7%, 89.5%
East, $1,532,259, -0.2%, 3.3%, 92.3%
South, $1,099,479, -0.4%, -0.3%, 104.2%
Islands, $1,088,716, -1.0%, 5.6%, 70.3%
Manukau, $897,957, -0.3%, 0.2%, 96.2%
East, $1,158,720, -0.9%, 0.3%, 94.4%
Central, $688,487, 0.6%, -0.3%, 83.2%
North-west, $771,872, 0.0%, 1.0%, 108.9%
Papakura, $679,072, 0.3%, 1.7%, 88.8%
Franklin, $663,080, -0.6%, 5.4%, 67.6%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $500,801, 1.7%, 13.5%, 26.4%
Kaipara (low volume), $515,516, -1.0%, 19.1%, 29.9%
Hamilton, $546,402, 1.3%, 3.2%, 51.1%
Tauranga, $686,759, -0.1%, 6.6%, 42.6%
Wellington region, $606,322, -0.5%, 9.6%, 33.1%
Christchurch, $491,626, -1.0%, -0.8%, 29.6%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,079,748, 0.7%, 12.6%, 57.0%
Invercargill, $244,691, 1.2%, 6.4%, 10.9%
Total NZ, $646,378, 1.1%, 4.3%, 56.0%

Link: Full QV house price index for September 2017

Attribution: QV release.

Continue Reading

QV house price index sticks at 0.0% for Auckland

Quotable Value Ltd’s house price index for Auckland remained at a standstill for the 3 months to July, continuing the 0.0% for the 3 months to June, which followed a 0.1% rise over the 3 months to May and a 0.4% dip in the 3 months to April.

!0 of QV’s survey areas around Auckland recorded falls and 9 recorded rises. Those 19 areas are the 7 former cities & districts that now make up the Auckland super-city, and 12 sub-areas within them.

QV said the 5.3% rise in Auckland values for the year was the smallest annual rate of growth since May 2012. Adjusted for inflation, the gain over the year fell from 5.3% to 3.4%, and the rise since the 2007 peak fell from 91.1% to 59.5%.

The nationwide index rise of 6.4% over the last 12 months, while ahead of the Auckland rise in percentage terms, was the smallest annual gain since February 2015. Adjusted for inflation, the annual gain fell from 6.4% to 4.6%, and the gain since the 2007 market peak fell from 54.8% to 29.2%.

Quotable Value’s average current value is the average (mean) value of all developed residential properties in the area based on the latest index. It’s not an average or median sales price, which the Real Estate Institute and Auckland agency Barfoot & Thompson use in their monthly calculations. Those measures only take into account what happens to have sold in the period.

The index shifts around the Auckland region on the old council boundaries.

Growth shifts to provincial centres

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said in today’s monthly release the continued national rise in the index was driven by regional & provincial centres, not the largest cities: “Values continue to plateau in Auckland, Hamilton & Christchurch in a trend seen since October last year, when the latest round of loan:value restrictions were introduced.

“Wellington & Dunedin are now also experiencing a similar trend, with quarterly value growth in both cities slowing to below 1.0%.”

“Much of the slowdown in the markets is being caused by high prices & banks’ stricter lending criteria, meaning it’s difficult for many buyers to raise finance to purchase and this is now constraining the market.

“Record high net migration continues, yet building consents are now trending downwards, so the underlying demand & lack of supply for homes remains in the market, particularly in Auckland.

“It’s likely that these trends will continue for the rest of the winter and many buyers & sellers are now taking a wait-&-see approach until after winter & the election.”

Auckland index movements

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries, for the Auckland region, and around the country below that (old councils & main areas in bold; 2 areas, Kaipara & Auckland’s gulf islands, carry a warning for their low transaction levels).

The dollar figure is the average value for July. The first percentage is for the 3 months to July, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak:

Auckland region, $1,044,303, 0.0%, 5.3%, 91.1%
Rodney, $949,658, -0.7%, 10.5%, 61.9%
North, $972,194, -1.4%, 11.1%, 61.9%
Hibiscus Coast, $927,802, -0.3%, 9.8%, 58.0%
North Shore, $1,202,461, 0.6%, 3.7%, 86.3%
Coastal, $1,380,887, 0.9%, 4.4%, 83.3%
Onewa, $952,432, -0.4%, 1.6%, 92.0%
North Harbour, $1,180,491, 0.1%, 4.8%, 94.3%
Waitakere, $819,426, -0.9%, 4.8%, 93.3%
Auckland City, $1,234,767, 0.9%, 6.1%, 98.3%
Central, $1,082,911, 0.3%, 7.9%, 90.1%
East, $1,546,047, 1.5%, 6.3%, 94.0%
South, $1,105,872, 0.7%, 4.3%, 105.4%
Islands (low volume), $1,105,452, 4.1%, 12.5%, 72.9%
Manukau, $898,361, -0.5%, 4.6%, 96.3%
East, $1,166,714, -0.5%, 6.0%, 95.8%
Central, $687,130, 0.8%, 3.8%, 82.8%
North-west, $767,205, -1.1%, 3.4%, 107.7%
Papakura, $675,358, -2.6%, 5.7%, 87.7%
Franklin, $658,595, -1.6%, 7.3%, 66.5%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $494,212, 3.4%, 17.2%, 24.7%
Kaipara, $521,633, 5.7%, 23.5%, 31.5%
Hamilton, $540,840, 0.4%, 5.4%, 49.6%
Tauranga, $691,350, 1.9%, 12.3%, 43.6%
Wellington region, $724,202, 0.0%, 14.3%, 36.0%
Christchurch, $495,098, -0.2%, 0.6%, 30.5%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,092,748, 4.9%, 20.0%, 58.9%
Invercargill, $242,829, 1.4%, 8.7%, 10.1%
Total NZ, $641,280, 1.6%, 6.4%, 54.8%

Link: QV house price index for July 2017

Earlier story:
5 July 2017: Auckland house price index at standstill, still rising nationally

Attribution: QV tables & release.

Continue Reading

Auckland house price index at standstill, still rising nationally

Quotable Value Ltd’s house price index for Auckland was at a standstill for the 3 months to June, after coming in at a 0.1% rise over the 3 months to May and a 0.4% dip in the 3 months to April.

Over the whole country, the index is in a state of flux – up in one area, down in a neighbour.

The various indexes for Auckland & its components – local government areas on the pre-2010 boundaries and broad splits within them – showed 11 falls in the total 20 areas (which include double-ups) in the April quarter, dropping to 8 falls in the roll to May and down to 7 in the roll to June.

For the year to June, the Auckland index is showing a 7.2% gain, the slowest since September 2012. That 2011-12 period was the start of the break out from the 2011 bottom of the global financial crisis for New Zealand, and property inflation in Auckland sped up through to last year, until Reserve Bank measures, reduced Asian investment and now bank lending restrictions slowed the rise. Adjusted for inflation, QV’s index for Auckland rose 4.9% in the last year, 28.8% since the previous market peak at the end of 2007.

Nationally, the index rose 8.1% over the last year, the slowest rate since March 2015, and 1.2% over the last 3 months. Adjusted for inflation, the annual increase dropped to 5.9% and the rise since 2007 to 28.8%.

QV view

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said Auckland sales volumes had plummeted 30% below the number a year ago “as high prices, coupled with banks’ stricter lending criteria, are making it increasingly difficult for anyone but cash buyers or those with higher levels of equity to buy property.

“It has also become much more difficult for developers to gain finance to build new homes, which is now leading to a slowdown in building activity in the market.

“The CoreLogic Buyer classification data shows the share of sales to all buyers requiring a mortgage has dropped and the share of sales to cash buyers remains steady.

Around the country

“Meanwhile, in the other main centres, values are now rising again in Hamilton & Tauranga after decreasing earlier in the year. A slowdown in value growth in the Wellington market is now more evident in the QV house price index data and Porirua, a previous hot spot, has seen values decrease over the past quarter.

“The Christchurch market is flat, with some areas seeing a slight decrease in values over the past quarter, while values continue to rise in a relatively buoyant Dunedin market.”

“Values in regional centres such as the Kaipara district north of Auckland, Hawke’s Bay, Nelson & the Tasman district are now seeing stronger value growth than the main centres as buyers look to the regions in search of more affordable homes.”

Auckland detail

Ms Rush said values around the Auckland region continued to plateau, and values remaining steady over at 0.0% change over the last 3 months: “Values have continued to rise in some parts of the Auckland region but have decreased in others. Auckland City–Islands rose the most over the past quarter, with values rising 3.1% since April and 13.3% year on year. Rodney North also continued to increase more quickly than other parts of the city, up 2.2% over the past 3 months and 13.6% year on year. Values decreased in the Auckland City apartment market and also Auckland City east & south; as well as in Waitakere, Manukau north-west, Papakura & Franklin over the past 3 months.”

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries, and for the Auckland region, and around the country below that (old councils & main areas in bold; 2 areas, Kaipara & Auckland’s gulf islands, carry a warning for their low transaction levels).

The dollar figure is the average value for June. The first percentage is for the 3 months to June, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak:

Auckland region, $1,045,059, 0.0%, 7.2%, 91.2%
Rodney, $955,814, 1.6%, 11.9%, 63.0%
North, $984,933, 2.2%, 13.6%, 64.0%
Hibiscus Coast, $928,686, 0.9%, 10.2%, 58.1%
North Shore, $1,203,775, 0.2%, 6.0%, 86.5%
Coastal, $1,376,695, 0.1%, 6.2%, 82.7%
Onewa, $956,862, 0.4%, 4.8%, 92.9%
North Harbour, $1,190,626, 0.5%, 7.5%, 95.9%
Waitakere, $823,630, -0.6%, 6.8%, 94.2%
Auckland City, $1,228,005, -0.1%, 7.1%, 97.3%
Central, $1,073,116, 1.0%, 7.8%, 88.4%
East, $1,534,921, -0.5%, 7.1%, 92.6%
South, $1,103,498, 6.1%, -0.5%, 105.0%
Hauraki Gulf islands, $1,099,383, 3.1%, 13.3%, 72.0%
Manukau, $900,766, 0.0%, 7.0%, 96.8%
East, $1,169,679, 0.3%, 8.0%, 96.2%
Central, $684,184, 0.4%, 5.3%, 82.0%
North-west, $771,795, -0.5%, 6.6%, 108.9%
Papakura, $677,340, -1.8%, 8.1%, 88.3%
Franklin, $666,845, -0.1%, 9.0%, 68.6%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $492,588, 4.3%, 19.6%, 24.3%
Kaipara, $520,852, 10.5%, 24.3%, 31.3%
Hamilton, $539,357, 1.2%, 9.5%, 49.2%
Tauranga, $687,364, 1.6%, 14.6%, 42.8%
Wellington region, $609,552, 2.4%, 18.0%, 33.8%
Christchurch, $496,378, -0.1%, 1.1%, 30.8%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,071,995, 2.9%, 19.2%, 55.9%
Invercargill, $241,770, 1.9%, 9.2%, 9.6%
Total NZ, $639,051, 1.2%, 8.1%, 54.2%

Link:
Full index:  QV house price index for June 2017

Attribution: QV statistics & release.

Continue Reading

QV says home-building costs up average 3.5% in year

Quotable Value Ltd said today the average cost of building a new home in New Zealand’s 4 largest cities had risen on average by 3.5% in the year to May, and by 25.5% since the previous price peak of 2007.

The assessment is by QVcostbuilder, an arm of state-owned enterprise Quotable Value Ltd, which provides the latest construction cost data to the property & construction industries through an online subscription web platform tool.

It also shows the average cost of building a standard 140m², 3-bedroom, one-bathroom home rose most in Wellington, up 2.43% over 12 months to an average $258,000. Auckland rose 2.32% to $272,000, Dunedin rose 2.12% to $254,000 and Christchurch rose 1.92% to $277,375.

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said building costs rose most in Wellington as its house price index jumped more than 20%.

She said costs for larger houses (between 200-600m²) increased by a higher percentage – 3.39% over the year, 38.6% since 2007.

The averages exclude the cost of land, demolition of existing structures, additional costs due to building code changes, structural requirements, external works, utilities connections, balconies & covered ways, professional & council fees & gst.

Attribution: QV release.

Continue Reading

Small housing index lift in Auckland – Kaipara & Opotiki now the leaders

Quotable Value Ltd’s index for the Auckland region rose 0.1% in the 3 months to May after dipping by 0.4% in the 3 months to April.

Nationally, the index rose from no change to April, to a 0.4% gain to May.

QV national spokeswoman Andrea Rush said in the organisation’s monthly release, out today, the 9.7% index rise nationally for the last 12 months was the slowest annual rate in 2 years. In Auckland, the annual rate dropped from 10.7% at April to 9.3% at May.

The big hitters now are Kaipara, up 9.2% for the last 3 months and up 25.1% for 12 months but up only 29.6% since the previous peak at the end of 2007, and the one place showing double-digit growth in the last 3 months, Opotiki. The index there rose 12.9% over 3 months (like the Kaipara, on low volume), and 22.5% over the year, but is up only 0.8% since 2007.

The index for Auckland overall and for many of the hot spots have been easing for months, but the latest figures show a few places have risen again. QV shows 20 Auckland areas (the region, the old council areas and some of those areas broken down) in its presentation of the indexes nationally, and 11 of those 20 areas were negative for the 3 months to April.

For the 3 months to May, however, the negatives fell to 8, starting with a turnaround for the whole region. The North Shore & 2 of its components, the coastal area & North Harbour, turned positive while Papakura turned negative.

These index measures aren’t adjusted for inflation, but QV issues an inflation-adjusted version for its national index and for Auckland. Nationally, the 12-month rise was 7.4% adjusted for inflation, and 27.8% since 2007. In Auckland, the 12-month rise was 7.0%, 44.0% since the 2007 peak.

The QV picture

QV’s indexes around the country for the last 12 months.

Ms Rush said: “Nationwide value growth continues to ease back due to lower demand in the housing market caused by the latest round of LVR restrictions and tougher lending criteria from the banks as we head into the winter period.

“Sales volumes are lower than they were this time last year, particularly in Auckland, and it’s possible market activity may now remain more subdued until after the election.

“Value growth continues to be stronger in Wellington & Dunedin than in the other main centres but is also starting to ease back a little.

“With Auckland & Hamilton only seeing very slight value growth over the past 3 months and values dropping slightly in Christchurch, these markets are relatively flat by comparison.

“Values in Tauranga are showing stronger quarterly growth than last month, but across the board it appears much of the frenzy has come out of the housing market there and have returned to more normal levels of activity & demand.”

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries, and for the Auckland region, and around the country below that (old councils & main areas in bold). The dollar figure is the average value for May. The first percentage is for the 3 months to May, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak:

Auckland region, $1,044,561, 0.1%, 9.3%, 91.1%
Rodney, $960,087, 2.5%, 13.1%, 63.7%
North, $994,136, 3.9%, 15.5%, 58.4%
Hibiscus Coast, $930,274, 1.3%, 10.9%, 65.5%
North Shore, $1,198,381, 0.1%, 7.9%, 85.7%
Coastal, $1,369,770, 0.5%, 8.0%, 81.8%
Onewa, $953,727, -1.0%, 7.4%, 92.3%
North Harbour, $1,184,048, 0.7%, 8.6%, 94.9%
Waitakere, $825,736, -0.7%, 7.9%, 94.7%
Auckland City, $1,222,137, -0.7%, 7.9%, 96.3%
Central, $1,075,398, 1.2%, 9.5%, 88.8%
East, $1,524,074, -1.1%, 8,8%, 91.2%
South, $1,096,186, -0.4%, 8.3%, 103.6%
Hauraki Gulf islands, $1,074,011, 1.6%, 15.1%, 68.0%
Manukau, $902,068, 0.0%, 9.4%, 97.1%
East, $1,168,644, 0.8%, 10.8%, 96.1%
Central, $684,048, -0.2%, 6.3%, 82.0%
North-west, $774,309, -1.4%, 9.7%, 109.6%
Papakura, $683,812, -0.4%, 11.9%, 90.1%
Franklin, $671,396, 1.2%, 11.9%, 69.7%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $483,049, 3.2%, 19.4%, 21.9%
Kaipara, $514,219, 9.2%, 25.1%, 29.6%
Hamilton, $537,152, 0.9%, 12.3%, 48.6%
Tauranga, $683,012, 1.3%, 15.4%, 41.9%
Wellington region, $727,119, 2.4%, 19.2%, 36.6%
Christchurch, $495,070, -0.7%, 1.0%, 30.5%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,052,211, 1.2%, 20.3%, 53.0%
Invercargill, $243,144, 3.1%, 11.3%, 10.2%
Total NZ, $634,018, 0.4%, 9.7%, 53.0%

Link:
Full index: QV house price index for May 2017

Attribution: QV statistics & release.

Continue Reading

QV house price index shows central Auckland holding, Shore & Waitakere down again, extremities rising

Quotable Value Ltd’s monthly house price index, out today, shows a continuing slide in values around some of Auckland in March, but the extremities of Rodney & Franklin still catching up on the growth they’ve missed out on over the last 9 years.

The indexes for the extremities – and for the rest of the country – will turn downward before they do catch up. In the meantime, however, their values have been growing over the last few months while the indexes for Auckland’s main urban areas have softened.

QV produces its monthly house price index on rolling 3-month & 12-month bases.

It’s not all downward on the isthmus – the index for the central area was up 0.7% in February and still showing a 0.1% gain in the 3 months to March. The eastern suburbs were up 1.3% in the 3 months to February, and rose to a 1.5% gain in the latest 3-month period, to March. The southern suburbs lost ground in February, down 1.3%, but regained 0.3% in March.

And the islands, chiefly Waiheke, gained 2.7% in the 3 months to March and increased that gain to 4.4% in the latest period, though those figures need to be assessed against a low volume of data, which can result in exceptional index movements.

North Shore & Waitakere prices weakened in the 3 months to February, and lost further ground in March, except in the North Harbour (Albany) area, where the index was static in March.

Mixed picture around country

Around the country, the price picture is mixed.

The cheapest city in the country, Gisborne, made a 2.8% gain in the latest 3 months, Queenstown Lakes the one place outside Auckland with an average price over $1 million – gained 2%, Wellington 3.7% – and Central Otago 10%.

Over the longer period since the previous price peak, at the end of 2007, Auckland – from the Shore down to Papakura – remains well ahead of the price level 9 years ago. The southern suburbs on the isthmus are 106% ahead of the 2007 level, and the north-west of old Manukau City is 110% ahead.

The Wellington region, left well behind during Auckland’s strongest boom years, is still only 30.7% ahead of the level in 2007, compared to a 60% gain in Rodney and a 69% gain in Franklin over that period.

QV national spokeswoman Andrea Rush said, “The Wellington region continues to see some of the strongest value growth of any area in New Zealand, particularly in more affordable areas outside the central city such as Porirua & the Hutt Valley.”

“Meanwhile, values in parts of Auckland, Hamilton & Christchurch are still seeing a slight downward trend, but values are stabilising and continuing to rise in other parts of these main centres as well. This means the downward trend & dampening in these markets seen since the latest round of loan:value ratio restriction may be shallower than expected.

“It’s possible we may see values start to rise in these main centres in coming months, given that the market is still being driven by a high number of sales to investors, record high net migration, relatively low interest rates, a lack of supply and fewer taxes on property investment than many other countries.”

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries and for the Auckland region. The first percentage is for the 3 months to February, the second is for the 3 months to March, followed by changes over the last 12 months & since the 2007 peak. The dollar figure is the average value for March:

Rodney, $940,701, 1.4%, 1.2%, 13.3%, 60.4%
North, $964,038, 0.8%, 0.7%, 13.4%, 56.7%
Hibiscus Coast, $920,149, 2.6%, 1.8%, 13.3%, 60.5%
North Shore, $1,201,367, -2.2%, -1.4%, 11.5%, 86.2%
Coastal, $1,375,264, -2.7%, -1.5%, 12.6%, 82.5%
Onewa, $952,902, -2.2%, -2.3%, 9.9%, 92.1%
North Harbour, $1,184,914, -1.0%, 0.0%, 11.1%, 95.0%
Waitakere, $828,959, -1.7%, -1.4%, 12.1%, 95.5%
Auckland City, $1,229,715, 0.2%, 0.9%, 12.5%, 97.5%
Central, $1,062,943, 0.7%, 0.1%, 10.8%, 86.6%
East, $1,542,858, 1.3%, 1.5%, 13.3%, 93.6%
South, $1,108,497, -1.3%, 0.3%, 12.2%, 105.9%
Islands (all on low data), $1,066,785, 2.7%, 4.4%, 17.8%, 66.9%
Manukau, $900,324, -0.4%, -0.5%, 12.6%, 96.7%
East, $1,165,890, -0.7%, 0.4%, 13.8%, 95.6%
Central, $681,232, -1.7%, -1.0%, 9.3%, 81.2%
North-west, $775,666, 1.6%, -0.8%, 13.3%, 109.9%
Papakura, $689,859, 0.9%, 1.2%, 12.6%, 91.8%
Franklin, $667,209, 2.4%, 1.1%, 13.1%, 68.7%
Auckland region, $1,045,362, -0.7%, -0.2%, 12.3%, 91.3%

Other places & nationally:

Kaipara (all on low data), $471,203, 0.8%, 20.6%, 18.8%
Hamilton, $532,888, -0.4%, 15.7%, 47.4%
Gisborne, $276,793, 2.8%, 18.0%, -6.9%
Wellington region, $595,501, 3.7%, 21.2%, 30.7%
Queenstown Lakes, $1,042,258, 2.0%, 28.5%, 51.6%
Central Otago, $437,791, 10.0%, 22.8%, 38.1%
Total NZ, $631,432, 0.6%, 12.9%, 52.4%

Attribution: QV tables & release.

Continue Reading

Shore & Manukau housing values drop over last quarter

Housing values on the North Shore, a few spots on the isthmus and in Manukau have slipped in the latest report by Quotable Value, out today.

QV produces its monthly house price index on rolling 3-month & 12-month bases.

The whole of the Auckland region slipped by 0.7% in the last 3 months. The biggest declines in the region were in the old North Shore City boundaries, where the index for the whole the old city fell 2.2%, as did the Onewa area. Coastal property values fell 2.7% on average.

Nationally, values were up 1.1% over the 3 months, 13.5% over the last year.

QV said the index for Auckland was still up 12.8% over the year despite the more recent declines. Adjusted for inflation, Auckland values rose 11.3% over the last year, 61% since the 2007 peak. Nationally, adjusted for inflation, the index rose 12.0% over the year, 28.5% since the 2007 peak.

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries, plus Kaipara, the Auckland & Wellington regions and nationally – the latest average value & index shifts in the last 3 months, last 12 months & since the 2007 peak:

Kaipara, $470,913, 8.1%, 25.3%, 18.7%
Rodney, $936,877, 1.4%, 13.6%, 59.7%
North, $957,228, 0.8%, 13.6%, 59.4%
Hibiscus Coast, $918,495, 2.6%, 13.4%, 56.4%
North Shore, $1,196,987, -2.2%, 11.2%, 85.5%
Coastal, $1,363,263, -2.7%, 11.6%, 80.9%
Onewa, $962,999, -2.2%, 11.0%, 94.1%
North Harbour, $1,176,182, -1.0%, 11.2%, 93.6%
Waitakere, $831,705, -1.7%, 13.8%, 96.2%
Auckland City, $1,224,673, 0.2%, 12.5%, 96.7%
Central, $1,062,336, 0.7%, 11.6%, 86.5%
East, $1,540,731, 1.3%, 13.5%, 93.3%
South, $1,100,193, -1.3%, 11.5%, 104.4%
Islands, $1,057,341, 2.7%, 18.9%, 65.4%
Manukau, $902,477, -0.4%, 14.2%, 97.2%
East, $1,159,890, -0.7%, 14.5%, 94.6%
Central, $685,233, -1.7%, 11.6%, 82.3%
North-west, $785,112, 1.6%, 16.2%, 112.5%
Papakura, $686,465, 0.9%, 13.6%, 90.8%
Franklin, $663,638, 2.4%, 13.3%, 67.8%
Auckland region, $1,043,680, -0.7%, 12.8%, 91.0%
Wellington region, $589,784, 4.3%, 21.5%, 29.4%
Total NZ, $631,349, 1.1%, 13.5%, 52.4%

Link:
QV house price index for February 2017

Attribution: QV release.

Continue Reading
WordPress Appliance - Powered by TurnKey Linux