Residential value changes look localised

Value change in residential markets looked localised in Quotable Value Ltd’s latest index, out today.

Auckland values look close to a standstill overall, but with those local variations – turning upward in the last 3 months in the country’s most expensive neighbourhood, the eastern suburbs on Auckland’s isthmus; still negative on the North Shore; still perking up in Rodney & the Hibiscus Coast; slightly weaker in the west; a mix in southern suburbs.

Senior QV consultant Paul McCorry said affordability constraints & low supply continued to keep value growth modest in most areas.

While loosening the loan:value ratio (LVR) restrictions would enable some buyers to enter the market, confirmed & anticipated policy changes dampened investor enthusiasm in the short term. He expected investors to hold back until key policy changes such as capital gains tax are debated.

QV expected the foreign buyer ban to have greatest impact in premium areas like Queenstown, but it had solid quarterly growth of 3%. However, Mr McCorry said Auckland may have been affected, with values flat.

As has been the case since values started to turn downward in Auckland 2 years ago, other parts of the country have experienced comparatively large value gains.

Kaipara has been relatively strong, with value gains of 2.5% over the last quarter & 9.9% over a year, but the big surge has been in Hawke’s Bay – 10.8% in Hastings in the last 3 months, 11.2% over 12 months there & 11.3% in Napier.

The QV view of the next few months: “The underlying drivers for the New Zealand economy remain positive. We have a strong labour market, there are still plenty of new people coming to live in New Zealand and interest rates remain close to historic lows. With the Reserve Bank anticipated to keep the OCR at 1.75% for the foreseeable future, we’re seeing banks offering very favourable lending rates provided buyers meet the set criteria. We’re expecting 2019 to be a year where value growth is not at the levels of the last few years but, equally, any value decreases are likely to be modest as demand still outstrips supply.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for January. The first percentage gain or fall is for the 3 months to January, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries (councils marked in bold); Kaipara & the Hauraki Gulf Islands, as usual, have low counts:

Total NZ: $684,468, 0.9%, 2.9%, 65.5%
Auckland region: $1,045,775, -0.1%, -0.9%, 92.0%
Rodney: $960,040, 2.1%, 1.3%, 63.7%
North: $987,135, 2.5%, 1.9%, 64.3%
Hibiscus Coast: $933,000, 1.5%, 0.5%, 58.8%
North Shore: $1,202,443, -1.1%, -2.2%, 86.3%
Coastal: $1,362,966, -1.9%, -3.4%, 80.9%
Onewa: $968,251, -0.9%, -0.9%, 95.2%
North Harbour: $1,191,045, 0.7%, -0.7%, 96.0%
Waitakere: $819,303, -1.1%, -0.4%, 93.2%
Auckland City: $1,234,033, 0.2%, -0.9%, 98.2%
Central: $1,082,344, 0.3%, 0.4%, 90.0%
East: $1,557,718, 0.5%, -1.2%, 95.5%
South: $1,092,400, -0.2%, -1.1%, 102.9%
Islands: $1,166,754, 2.5%, 0.0%, 82.5%
Manukau: $903,213, 0.1%, -0.1%, 97.3%
East: $1,147,319, -0.8%, -1.2%, 92.5%
Central: $705,752, 0.4%, 0.4%, 87.7%
North-west: $785,644, 1.1%, 1.2%, 112.6%
Papakura:  $696,144,-0.7%, -0.6%, 93.5%
Franklin: $670,613, 0.0%, -0.4%, 69.5%

On the borders & down country:
Whangarei: $561,271, 1.5%, 10.1%, 41.6%
Kaipara: $557,155, 2.4%, 9.9%, 40.4%
Waikato: $489,613, 0.6%, 4.1%, 61.7%
Hamilton: $577,352, 0.3%, 5.9%, 59.7%
Tauranga: $721,981, 2.0%, 3.3%, 50.0%
Gisborne: $323,676, 0.6%, 9.2%, 8.9%
Hastings: $504,553, 10.8%, 11.2%, 61.9%
Napier: $538,635, 4.3%, 11.3%, 58.3%
Wellington region: $693,448, 1.1%, 7.9%, 52.2%
Christchurch: $497,370, 0.8%, 0.6%, 31.1%
Queenstown-Lakes: $1,201,645, 3.0%, 7.6%, 74.7%
Dunedin: $436,208, 2.9%, 11.1%, 52.4%
Invercargill: $286,253, 2.0%, 12.2%, 29.8%

Link: Full QV index tables

Attribution: QV tables & release.

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