I’ve picked up Statistics NZ’s release last week of population projections, played with them, and come up with some indications of potential growth in Auckland. And then I’ve tossed in a couple of counts to house the new people.
For simplicity, and assuming net immigration remains high, I’ve used Statistics NZ’s high growth projections line over the 25 years to 2043, then projected a housing need based on households averaging 2.7 occupants/household.
In the table below, I’ve applied these projections to Auckland, showing the projected population increase over 25 years in all the region’s local board areas, and the alternative of the same growth projections for broader geographical areas.
There’s plenty of reason to be cautious about long-term projections, and the statisticians have produced a few reasons for caution.
Nevertheless, if we’re looking at Auckland chasing high economic growth, and fairly high population growth rather than slipping back, the high projections seems a good gauge to demonstrate the need for a continuing large supply of housing around the region.
Statistics NZ’s latest population projects indicate a gain for New Zealand of between 681,000 & 2.28 million over the 30 years 2013-43.
The projections come with more cautions than usual because of the new outcomes model Statistics NZ has put in place for migrant counts.
New Zealand’s net migrant inflow has been at historically high levels for 5 years – over 50,000/year on the new count using outcomes instead of intentions, about 70,000/year through the last year on the previous intentions model.
Statistics NZ has based the projections out last week on its estimate of population change since 2013, which doesn’t incorporate revisions from the new migration counts or from the 2018 census.
Attribution: Statistics NZ.