The net inflow of migrants in the last 3 years, just short of 160,000, is 100,000 more than the total over the previous 8 years.
The net inflow into Auckland over those 3 years was 73,694.
Statistics NZ said on Friday the net inflow in April was up nearly 500 on a year ago to 3453 – 600 more arriving & 100 more leaving, 8376 in & 4923 out.
For the April year, the net inflow was up by 11,300 to 68,110. The low point of the last 11 years was in 2012, when there was a net outflow of 4006, and the biggest inflow before the surge of the last 3 years was just short of 20,000 in the April 2010 year.
In the April 2006 year, the margin between arrivals & exits was 10,000 – 80,000 in, 70,000 out. In the intervening years, arrivals climbed gradually to 87,000 then, in the last 3 years, rose to almost 99,000, to 114,000 and in the latest year to 124,669. Exit numbers have varied more, falling to 63,700 in 2010 and rising to 87,800 2 years later but, in the last 3 years, dropping to 64,400 & 57,600 and, in the latest 12 months, to 56,559.
Trans-Tasman migration turned inward by a net 63 in April last year and has been slightly positive on an annual basis ever since. The latest monthly figure was a net outflow to Australia of 78, but for the year it was a net inflow of 1721, a turnaround from a net annual outflow of over 11,000 2 years earlier. Exits to Australia peaked at 53,904 in the August 2012 year, and the net outflow was running at around 40,000 in that period.
The latest figures show there’s still a net outflow of NZ citizens, but only just – from a net 4005 leaving in April 2012, down to 969 & 960 in the last 2 Aprils. The net outflow has fallen from 39,491 in the April 2012 year to 6305 & 3560 in the last 2 years.
For all but 2 years in the last 11, non-citizen migrant exits have been below 2000 in April and arrivals ran between 3600-4600/month for 8 years, then jumped over 5000 2 years ago and to 6283 last month. The net result is that non-NZ citizen immigration climbed by 500 this April to 4413, and the annual net inflow has risen from 39,000 in the April 2013 year to 48,600, to 63,100 and now to 71,670.
Statistics NZ has made the point that a rising number of Indian & Chinese immigrants have been on student visas – over 9700 in the last year from India, 5700 from China, 2200 from the Philippines. They can change their visa category while they’re here, but student exit numbers aren’t given. Total arrivals on student visas jumped from 17,200 2 years ago to 25,700 to 27,645 in the last year.
Although officialdom highlights students as a category – effectively saying they’re not real immigrants – I have assumed there’s a high churn rate, student in/student out, so that as a category they form a large number of effectively permanent immigrants as far as housing needs are concerned, for example.
The statistics show a sharp increase in migrants coming to Auckland in the last 2 years, and a decline in departures, increasing the net flow into Auckland from 16,006 2 years ago to 26,106 and, in the latest 12 months, to 31,582.
Arrivals in Auckland rose from 40,300 2 years ago to 47,900 to 52,870, while exits fell from 24,300 to 21,762 to 21,288.
How does this affect housing?
Those numbers are a major contributor to the housing debate but, like all statistics, can be taken out of context or manipulated.
In theory, at a current household occupancy rate of 3 persons/dwelling, dividing by 3 will show how many homes this net inflow requires. Nationally, over 3 years, the net inflow of 160,000 migrants would require 53,000 homes. Nationally, over one year, the net 68,100 new residents would require 22,700 homes.
For Auckland, at 3 persons/dwelling, housing requirements in the last year would have been 10,500, 24,565 over the last 3 years. Consents (not completions) in the last 3 March years were 6529, rising to 7940 and, in the latest 12 months, to 9566 – a total of 24,035.
That equates to housing 72,000 once the consented homes have been built, 4000 more than the total migrant inflow. Among other considerations, apart from the difference in timing between consent & completion, are questions of where NZ citizens who’ve reduced the exodus are living, the effect of the shift into retirement villages & consequent freeing up of standalone homes, the conditions in which student immigrants are living, and the occupancy rates of owner-occupier apartments & townhouses compared to investor stock.
Attribution: Statistics NZ tables.