Statistics NZ issued 2 much lower estimates of net immigration today, a revised figure for the year to last May and the first estimate for the year to November.
The estimate made in December for the net inflow to last May was 55,500. Today, Statistics NZ cut that figure by 9400 to 46,100.
The statisticians’ first shot at the net inflow for the November year is down another 4600 to 41,500 (± 1,600).
Population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said: “The latest net migration estimates indicate we are about 20,000 below the peak of 63,900 reached in the year ended July 2016.”
Provisional estimates for the year to November:
- Arrivals – 137,000 (± 1400)
- Departures – 95,500 (± 1300)
- Net migration gain – 41,500 (± 1600).
The figures have considerable political weight.
At the 2017 election, Labour campaigned on reducing immigration, opponents & critics argued last year that the inflow wasn’t falling, and now it’s down at least 22,400 – 35% – from the 2016 peak, and likely to fall a little further as estimates are revised over several months.
- More detail to come this afternoon.
Attribution: Statistics NZ.