New Zealand’s net inflow of migrants in September, 4245, was the lowest for that month since 2013.
The annual net inflow, 54,623, was about 5000 above the figure for the previous 12 months, 1000 below the figure to September 2017.
Statistics NZ issues preliminary estimates every month but, following its shift from an intentions basis to the observation of outcomes, reviews those monthly figures until a final count is made after 16 months.
The Government calculator has been emphasising months-old revised figures rather than those for the latest month. This is Statistics NZ’s last monthly commentary as it’s moving to quarterly commentaries in February (for the December figures), but it will still issue monthly figures. That silence should be more helpful than the bamboozlement by multitudinous minuscule recalculations, perhaps of use to statisticians, less so for people who want to know what’s happening while they’re still alive.
In its quibble with statistics today, Statistics NZ has concluded that the net migrant inflow in the 12 months to April was 55,700 (± 900), compared to the first estimate it made in June: 55,834 (± 1,600).
So, back to today’s first-time (provisional) migration figures for September & the year to September.
For the month (September 2018, first count, in brackets): Arrivals were 11,593 (12,314), exits 7348 (6700), the net inflow 4245 (5614).
The September figure quadrupled from 724 in 2012 to 2850 a year later, and peaked at 6525 in 2015.
For the 12 months (in brackets, the initial variation estimate followed by the 2018 figure): Arrivals were 149,968 (± 1500; 141,700), exits 95,345 (± 1300; 92,162), the net inflow 54,623 (± 1800; 49,538).
Those figures are the net migrant movements derived from over 7 million travellers in each direction, of whom the vast majority are on short-term journeys.
Some international comparisons
Statistics NZ, in its monthly commentary, compared New Zealand’s net inflow with other countries per thousand existing residents and found it similar to Australia’s in 2017-18 but more than triple recent inflows to the US & UK.
Using the year to June for the international comparison, New Zealand’s net inflow was 11.4:1000 residents (56,000 added to a population of about 4.9 million). The US net inflow in 2018 was 3:1000 (978,800 added to a population of 327 million).
Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.