The net inflow of migrants has risen from 49,200 for the year to August 2018 to a first estimate of 53,800 in the year to August 2019, Statistics NZ said yesterday.
After Statistics NZ changed from an intentions-based calculation of migration to an outcomes-based calculation, it has focused on revisions of monthly figures over several months, and concentrated yesterday on its final figure for the year to March, a net inflow of 55,400.
That March figure started out being reported in May as a net inflow of 56,100, plus or minus 1600. Over the next 5 months, Statistics NZ has tinkered with its estimate, putting it yesterday at 55,400, plus or minus 900. On the lower side it’s therefore held steady at 54,500, but reduced on the top side from 57,700 to 56,300.
Statistics NZ has now decided, after consulting customers, to move from monthly to quarterly commentaries “as these are sufficient to describe migration trends, which tend to change gradually”.
Its final monthly commentary will come next month, containing data for September. It will then say nothing until February, when it publishes a quarterly commentary on December data.
The August figures
Since immigration was ramped up in 2014, reaching (a mean) 40,650 in the August 2014 year, the annual tallies (mean & rounded) since then have been:
2019: 53,800 (first estimate)
For the month of August, the net inflow was the quietest for that month since 2013. From 1971 that August, the inflow rose to just under 4900, then topped 5600 in 2015. It fell to 4300 in 2017, rose to 4750 last year and fell again this August, to 3611 (the precise figure, which will change over the next few months).
On the new outcomes-based calculations, the net outflow of NZ citizens reached just under 38,000 in the August 2012 year, fell to 25,200 the following year and was below 10,000/year for the next 5 years.
However, those Kiwi exits began to ramp up last year, to a net outflow of 7265 for the year to August 2018, rising to 13,577 in the 12 months to this August.
Non-citizen arrivals have exceeded 100,000/year for the last 4 years, reaching just under 115,000 in the 12 months to this August. Non-citizen exits have exceeded 45,000 in each of the last 3 years, reaching 47,400 in the 12 months to this August, for a net non-citizen gain up nearly 11,000 over 12 months to just under 67,400.
In round figures for the latest 12 months, the main non-citizen net inflows were Asia 35,200 – China 10,400, India 8200; Europe 6000 – UK 1650, France 1200; Americas 5100 – US 2000.
Oceania showed a net loss of 3260 – NZ citizens a negative 13,600, net gains from Australia 5000, Samoa 2200, Fiji 1800.
Attribution: Statistics NZ release & tables.