Destroying your knowledge base before replacing it fully with a new model has to be one of the sillier ventures our national statisticians have embarked upon, and the consequent guesswork can lead to all sorts of wrong conclusions…. Nevertheless, the new model is starting to become useful.
Statistics NZ estimates the net inflow of migrants in the 12 months to February was 61,600 – a figure which will be changed every month for a few months as the Government agency adjusts its figures based on actual migrant movements.
Statistics NZ’s estimate of the net inflow of migrants has risen 35% – 15,000 more immigrants – from its first count for the 12 months to November through to its rolling 12-month count to January.
Statistics NZ has created a highly confusing, and moving, picture of migration with its new formula, which became the official formula last month. But the long & short of it is that emigration has risen sharply and immigration continues to decline.
Statistics NZ expects New Zealand’s resident population to reach 5 million late this year or in 2020, based on recent trends, after hitting 4.9 million at the end of September.
If you mix 2 different methods of measuring migration – and even you use only the new measure – New Zealand suffered an extreme decline in its population gain in November. Statistics NZ’s calculations for that month, out today, are the first where it measures everything by the outcomes-based measure, which fully replaces the intentions-based method.