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Institute figures show Auckland housing market quiet, rest of country bubbling

Real Estate Institute statistics out yesterday showed Auckland’s residential median sale price was still rising, but only by 2.5%/year, whereas the rest of the country was up 11.4%.

The divergence in price between Auckland & the rest of the country remains wide. Auckland’s median in June was $850,500 ($830,000 in June 2016), while the median for the rest of the country was $431,000 ($387,000).

The institute’s house price index showed Auckland falling 0.6% over the year, but the rest of the country rising 9.2%. The national movement for the year was up 2.8%.

Auckland sales volumes fell 33.2% over the last year, and nationally sales fell 24.7%.

Real Estate Institute chief executive Bindi Norwell said yesterday: “We know that it’s winter and the election is just 2 months away now, which typically impacts the number of properties sold in the market. The number of properties sold across the country is the lowest we’ve seen in the month of June for 3 years – particularly in the $500,000-&-under property price bracket. This slowdown in transactional activity, but stabilising price trend, highlights the underlying dynamics between housing demand & housing supply, with population growth continuing to rise faster than building consents & dwelling supply.”

“The June figures show us that a number of things are happening across the residential real estate market – inventory levels are impacting pricing, loan:value ratios are having a significant impact in terms of buyers’ ability to purchase properties (particularly for first-time buyers) and that the major trading banks are being more cautious with their approach to lending, particularly their view of how highly leveraged Kiwis are when it comes to properties.

“Talk of a decline in prices may be premature, with the seasonally adjusted median price trends still rising across many regions in New Zealand. The Auckland market is the most mature in terms of the property cycle. However, at worst, prices in the Auckland region are steady at present. The data also shows an emerging trend of section sales in Auckland occurring more quickly than dwelling sales, highlighting that demand for sections is still rising in Auckland while demand for dwellings is easing.

“With the looming election, Auckland prices are showing all the signs of stabilising that we would normally expect, and we anticipate this being a similar trend over the coming months until the election is over.”

The number of properties available for sale rose by 1895 in June compared to 12 months ago, although the number of properties for sale in the Auckland region has increased by 3097 (57%).  Excluding Auckland, the number of properties for sale fell by 1203 (7.4%).

The number of properties sold by auction continued to decline, down to 828 auction sales in June (14% of all sales, from 13% in May, 24% in June 2016).

Auckland median prices & volumes on old council boundaries:

Price brackets:

Attribution: Real Estate Institute release.

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Institute says Auckland house prices still up, sales down

The Real Estate Institute said in its monthly statistics out last week that its house price index for Auckland was up 1.8% on a year ago but down 1% in the last 3 months.

[The institute released its figures on Wednesday.]

The median price for the region was up 5% ($41,000) over the year to $865,000 and up 13% on the isthmus, 12% in Manukau, 8% in Rodney (on old council boundaries).

Sales were down 27.5% compared to a year ago, but in Papakura that was 9%, and in Franklin and on the North Shore it was 15%.

The institute said the average number of days to sell in Auckland had eased in May – it’s extended from 35 days in April and 32 days a year ago to 40 days, compared to a May 10-year average of 36 days. Inventory was up from 13 weeks to 22 weeks from a year ago.

Nationally, the median house price rose 6.7% ($34,000) from a year ago to $540,100 and the median hit record highs in 4 regions – Northland $450,000, Manawatu/Wanganui $269,000, Nelson/Marlborough $483,250 & Southland $238,000.

Sales nationally fell 18.4%.

The number of properties for sale in Auckland increased by 2814 (47%) on a year ago, but outside Auckland the number fell by 2683 (14%).

Attribution: Institute release.

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Auckland house price index still up 5.2% over year

The Real Estate Institute said today the median house sale price for the Auckland region rose 3% ($24,500) in April compared to April 2016 to $854,500. Prices rose 9% in eastern & southern suburbs, 5% in the centre.

The Auckland median fell 5.6% from March to April, down from $905,000 to $854,500.

The institute’s national house price index rose 7.8% from a year ago to 2690, nationally excluding it rose 12.8% to 2386, and in Auckland it rose 5.2% to 2901.

The 5845 unconditional residential sales in April were down 32% compared to March and down 31% compared to April 2016.

The institute has changed a number of features of its monthly reports. In short, it’s aligned its regions to those used by Statistics NZ and it’s added more categories to its breakdown of price brackets (see the chart, which previously had 3 lines).

The institute is also placing more emphasis on seasonal adjustment. The concept of seasonal adjustment is good, but as longtime readers of this website will know, I lost faith in Statistics NZ’s ability to achieve reliable seasonal adjustment years ago when it had trouble with Easter moving to March that year – a fairly well flagged event you might have thought, but nonetheless difficult to calculate, apparently.

When I deal with real estate statistics, I don’t trust anything that can be manipulated, and seasonal adjustment is, in the end, a subjective manipulation. So I’ll be leaving those parts of the statistics out of my stories.

Attribution: Institute release.

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Auckland house median slips

The Real Estate Institute said today the median house sale price in Auckland in February, $800,000, was down $5000 from January but up $50,000 on the median a year ago.

Nationally, the equation was up on both previous periods – up $5000 on January and up $45,000 on a year ago.

The $1 million-plus price bracket regained some of the market share it lost in January. After falling from 13% in December to 10.6% in January, the top bracket was back up to 11.3% of the market in February.

The breakdown of sales in price brackets and their share of the market in February 2017 & February 2016:

$1 million-plus, 708 (675), 11.3% (9.3%)
$600,000-999,999, 1639 (1656), 26.2% (22.7%)
$400,000-599,999, 1632 (1934), 26.1% (26.5%)
Under $400,000, 2247 (3026), 36.4% (41.5%)

Around the region on the old boundaries, February 2017 median & sales with January 2017 & February 2016 in brackets:

Rodney, $832,500 ($897,500, $760,000), 148 (112, 163)
North Shore, $1,013,000 ($965,000, $940,000), 296 (182, 372)
Waitakere, $805,000 ($761,500, $683,000), 200 (170, 289)
Auckland City, $891,000 ($845,500, $825,000), 464 (416, 549)
Manukau, $800,000 ($815,000, $749,500), 273 (193, 320)
Auckland region, $800,000 ($805,000, $750,000), 1661 (1247, 1936)
NZ, $495,000 ($490,000, $450,000), 6253 (4307, 7291)

Attribution: Institute release.

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Median sale price falls as fewer expensive homes sell

The median sale price for residential properties sold in Auckland dropped 4% ($35,000) from December to January, according to Real Estate Institute figures.

That happened as available stock in Auckland rose 17% compared to a year ago (1135 more properties on the market than in January 2016), but available stock outside Auckland fell 22% (by 4878 properties).

2 other market moves occurred in January – the trends of a rise in the $1 million-plus share of the market and decline in the under-$400,000 share were turned on their heads, at least briefly.

As prices overall have risen, the bottom market bracket’s share has steadily declined – from about 45% in mid-2014 to 34% in December. But, in January, that share climbed to 37.4%.

The $1 million-plus share of the market was in single figures in 2014, but climbing, and was 13% in December. But in January it dropped to 10.6%.

The Real Estate Institute said Auckland agents had 5.5 weeks’ more inventory than they had a year ago, rising to 16.6 weeks’.

280 homes were sold by auction nationally in January, representing 7% of all sales, down by 138 (33%) compared to January 2016.

The breakdown of sales in price brackets and their share of the market in January 2017 & January 2016:

$1 million-plus, 456 (423), 10.6% (8.4%)
$600-999,999, 1135 (1128), 26.4% (22.3%)
$400-599,999, 1105 (1310), 25.7% (26.0%)
Under $400,000, 1611 (2187), 37.4% (43.3)

Around the region on the old boundaries, January 2017 median & sales with December & January 2016 in brackets:

Rodney, $897,500 ($841,750, $793,750), 112 (160, 130)
North Shore, $965,000 ($1,038,500, $870,000), 182 (354, 280)
Waitakere, $761,500 ($760,000, $685,000), 170 (268, 217)
Auckland City, $845,500 ($978,000, $790,000), 416 (558, 406)
Manukau, $815,000 ($820,000, $700,000), 193 (325, 273)
Auckland region, $805,000 ($840,000 $720,000), 1247 (1873, 1526)
NZ, $490,000 ($516,000, $448,000), 4307 (6533, 5048)

Attribution: Institute release.

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Median Auckland house prices up over year, down from November

Median sale prices for houses in Auckland in December were all up on a year ago, and all down from November. Volumes were all down compared to both November 2016 & December 2015.

The Real Estate Institute said today Auckland’s median house sale price rose $70,000 (9.1%) to $840,000 compared to December 2015 – up 13% in Rodney, 14.1% on the North Shore, 12.8% on the isthmus and 7.9% in Manukau.

But it was down 1.4% from $851,944 in November – by 2.1% in Rodney, 6% on the Shore, 2.6% in Waitakere, 2.2% on the isthmus, 3% in Manukau.

Heaviest hit in the decline of sales was the isthmus, down 20.3% from a year ago, and down 29.4% from November to December. Over the whole region, sales fell 15.8% from a year ago and 22% from November.

Institute chief executive Bindi Norwell said in the institute’s monthly release: “In Auckland, the long-term median price trend has been consistently rising, despite a slight easing compared to November 2016. The combination of fundamental factors, such as strong underlying population growth and a lack of supply in the market to meet Auckland’s growing population, suggests that we may be unlikely to see much change to the upward trend in prices unless these fundamentals change.”

The national median sale price slipped from a record $520,000 in November to $516,000 in December, but 5 of the institute’s 12 regions hit new record median sale prices – Northland, Hawke’s Bay, Wellington, Otago & Southland.

Mrs Norwell said price growth was strong in Wellington, rising 22% ($100,000) in a year to a new record of $530,175, even though sales volume also rose from November to December.

The institute’s breakdown of price brackets showed $1 million-plus continued to take a greater share of the market nationally (13% in December). That shift has been fairly constant since New Zealand started to clamber out of the global financial crisis in 2011. In January 2012, 59.5% of house sales nationally were for under $400,000, and only 2.6% were for over $1 million.

The breakdown of sales in price brackets and their share of the market in December 2016 & December 2015:

$1 million-plus, 848 (755), 13.0% (10.3%)
$600-999,999, 1771 (1760), 27.1% (24.1%)
$400-599,999, 1687 (1867), 25.8% (25.5%)
Under $400,000, 2227 (2931), 34.1% (40.1%)

Around the region on the old boundaries, December 2016 median & sales with November 2016 & December 2015 in brackets. The percentage figures show the shift from November to December, and since December 2015, in median sale prices & sale volumes:

Rodney, $841,750 ($860,000, $745,000), 160 (190, 191); -2.1%, 13.0%; -15.8%, -16.2%
North Shore, $1,038,500 ($1,105,000, $910,000), 354 (405, 413); -6.0%, 14.1%; -12.6%, -14.3%
Waitakere, $760,000 ($780,500, $717,500), 268 (318, 302); -2.6%, 5.9%; -15.7%, -11.3%
Auckland City, $978,000 ($1,000,000, $867,000), 558 (790, 700); -2.2%, 12.8%; -29.4%, -20.3%
Manukau, $820,000 ($845,000, $760,000), 325 (397, 365); -3.0%, 7.9%; -18.1%, -11.0%
Auckland region, $840,000 ($851,944, $770,000), 1873 (2400, 2225); -1.4%, 9.1%; -22.0%, -15.8%
NZ, $516,000 ($520,000, $465,000), 6533 (7576, 7313)

Attribution: Institute release.

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Auckland house prices ease but sales up

The Real Estate Institute said today Auckland sales rose 12% from October to November, including a 25% rise in Rodney and 19% on the isthmus.

Institute spokesperson Bryan Thomson said: “Auckland prices eased back in November after hitting a record high in October. However, the underlying trend of Auckland prices remains steadily upward, rising by $269,944 at a compound annual growth rate of 13.2% since the introduction of the first set of loan:value ratio rules in October 2013.

“First-homebuyers & investors are staying away from the Auckland market, with numbers down 50% in some parts of the region. As a result, inventory levels are continuing to climb. Despite this, the number of sales by auction continues to hold above 40% across the region.”

Nationally, the median sale price reached a new record of $520,000 and median sale prices hit new records in 10 of the institute’s 12 regions – Auckland & Central Otago-Lakes were the 2 to miss.

Sales rose 13% from October to 7576, but were 6% below the November 2015 tally.

Mr Thomson said: “Inventory is continuing to decline nationwide, with an 8% fall in properties available for sale year-on-year and 2 regions with less than 12 weeks of supply. Wellington has 9 weeks of supply available and Hawke’s Bay has 11 weeks.

Sales over $1 million continued to take a rising share of transactions, and the under-$400,000 bracket continued its decline. The breakdown of sales in price brackets and their share of the market in November this year & last year:

$1 million-plus, 1106 (833), 14.6% (10.4%)
$600-999,999, 2034 (1802), 26.8% (22.4%)
$400-599,999, 1890 (2130), 24.9% (26.5%)
Under $400,000, 2546 (3283), 33.6% (40.8%)

Around the region on the old council boundaries, November 2016 median & sales with October 2016 & November 2015 in brackets:

Rodney, $860,000 ($862,500 $785,000), 190 (152 179)
North Shore, $1,105,000 ($1,000,000, $905,000), 405 (381, 429)
Waitakere, $780,500 ($797,000 $711,500), 318 (270 332)
Auckland City, $1,000,000 ($1,046,000 $830,000), 790 (662 815)
Manukau, $845,000 ($851,000 $736,000), 397 (405 443)
Auckland region, $851,944 ($868,000 $765,000), 2,400 (2,135 2,514)
NZ, $520,000 ($510,000, $459,500), 7576 (6727, 8048).

Attribution: Real Estate Institute release.

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Regional house price rises grab attention

The Real Estate Institute said yesterday Auckland’s median sale price rose 7% from a year ago to $825,000 in September, on sales down 23%.

Nationally, the median hit a record $515,000, the median excluding Auckland also hit a record, $400,000, and new median highs were set in 6 regions.

Sales nationally fell 2% from August and 10% from last September to 7397.

Sales of homes over 41 million continued to grow their market share, rising by 1% from a year ago to 13.7%, while the bottom bracket recorded by the institute, under $400,000, continued to decline, falling 3.8% from a year ago to 34.8% market share.

Sales nationally in price brackets and their share of the market in September 2016 (September 2015 in brackets):

$1 million-plus, 1016 (1042), 13.7% (12.7%)
$600-999,999, 1987 (1970), 26.9% (24.1%)
$400-599,999, 1822 (2009), 24.6% (24.6%)
Under $400,000, 2572 (3153), 34.8% (38.6%)

Around the Auckland region on the old boundaries, September 2016 median & sales with August 2016 & September 2015 in brackets:

North Shore, $1,020,000 ($1,045,000, $958,000), 380 (410, 525)
Waitakere, $760,000 ($800,000, $727,500), 343 (345, 424)
Auckland City, $947,500 ($911,750, $850,000), 804 (726, 1005)
Manukau, $780,000 ($815,000, $733,500), 451 (462, 627)
Rodney, $816,500 ($862,500, $815,000), 164 (192, 224)
Auckland region, $825,000 ($842,500, $771,000), 2424 (2413, 3158)

Earlier story:
16 September 2016: REINZ Auckland house sales median up 14%, but CoreLogic warns of slowdown

Attribution: REINZ release.

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REINZ Auckland house sales median up 14%, but CoreLogic warns of slowdown

The median price of sales recorded in Auckland by the Real Estate Institute rose by $102,500 (+14%) to a record high of $842,500 in August.

Last week, Quotable Value Ltd put the average value of Auckland housing at $1 million. The QV index, “powered” by input from the international CoreLogic group, is based on sales on a moving 3-month period (more on that below).

The Real Estate Institute said on Wednesday prices rose by 21% in Manukau in August, 20% in outer Auckland and 14% in Rodney (which includes the Hibiscus Coast) and on the isthmus. Compared to July the median price rose by $17,500 (2%) – 9% in Auckland City, 3% in outer Auckland and 1% in Rodney & Manukau.

Institute spokesman Bryan Thomson said inventory levels were low but slowly increasing – in Auckland, up from 10 weeks’ supply in July to 12 weeks’ supply in August. He said sales volumes fell 20% in Auckland compared to a year ago, and 3% nationally.

“The indications are that the struggle for stock is the biggest factor driving market behaviour & price expectations across the country, as we await spring listings. The continued shortage of listings, coupled with the impact of the loan:valuation ratio (LVR) changes on investors, is seeing sales volumes more muted than expected at this time of year.”

The institute recorded 7527 unconditional sales in August, up 3% on July but down 3% from a year ago.

Section sales, which are exempt from the new LVR ratios, jumped 37% nationally compared to last August. Auckland section sales were up 19%.

CoreLogic view

CoreLogic NZ Ltd’s head of research, Jonno Ingerson, said when the $1 million tag arrived last week:This latest milestone has led to the housing minister being labelled the ‘million dollar minister’, the front page of the papers & the news websites have been awash with breathless stories of Auckland’s unaffordability, and the talkback lines filled with the usual pundits.

“Why don’t I care? Because it’s just a number. It’s just one way of measuring Auckland’s house prices. I could give you 5 others, some of which show Auckland has been beyond a million dollars for a long time, and others which show it is yet to get there.

“But they all share the same common theme. Auckland’s house prices have been rising for years and very little has been done that has slowed them. Affordability is now a very real issue for many people…. That story might be about to change, at least for a while. I’m watching some hard data coming across my desk that suggests the heat has well & truly come out of the market.”

Mr Ingerson said the monthly QV house price index was an extremely reliable measure of value change in the housing stock of an area, but it turned slowly by being based on data from the last 3 months. However, he added that “anything more reactive than the QV house price index tends to be more volatile, so you’re never sure if an up or a down is real or noise”.

Back to the Real Estate Institute figures:

Sales nationally in price brackets and their share of the market in August 2016 (August 2015 in brackets):

$1 million-plus, 987 (848), 13.1% (10.9%)
$600-999,999, 1915 (1834), 25.4% (23.6%)
$400-599,999, 1819 (1995), 24.2% (24.9%)
Under $400,000, 2806 (3150), 37.3% (40.6%)

2 years ago, in August 2014, 46% of sales were in the under-$400,000 bracket. During the next year that bottom bracket’s share of the market slid, but in the last year it’s moved in a range of about 4%.

Around the Auckland region on the old boundaries, August 2016 median & sales with July 2016 & August 2015 in brackets:

North Shore, $1,045,000 ($1,062,500, $935,500), 410 (408, 556)
Waitakere, $800,000 ($803,000, $741,000), 345 (350, 404)
Auckland City, $911,750 ($837,000, $800,000), 726 (817, 906)
Manukau, $815,000 ($805,000, $675,000), 462 (473, 595)
Rodney, $862,500 ($852,500, $755,650), 192 (178, 184)
Auckland region, $842,500 ($825,000, $740,000), 2413 (2520, 3002)

Link: Ingerson blog article on index

Earlier story:
7 September 2016: Multiple owners still highly active as QV Auckland housing index tops $1 million

Attribution: Real Estate Institute, CoreLogic.

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House sales slip but median price still rises

The Real Estate Institute said on Wednesday residential sales volumes fell 8% in Auckland from June to July, but the regional median price still rose by $4000 (0.5%) for the month to a new high of $825,000.

The median rose 7% in Manukau, 2% in Waitakere, but fell 1% on the North Shore (on the old council boundaries).

The regional rise for the median over 12 months was $90,000 (12%) as prices rose 19% in Rodney, 18% in Manukau, 13% on the Shore.

Sales volume from June to July was down 9% on the isthmus & the Shore, down 11% in outer areas, flat in Waitakere. Compared to a year ago, sales fell 13% in Waitakere, 17% on the isthmus, 18% in outer areas.

The national median price rose $5000 to $505,000 from June to July.

Around the Auckland region on the old boundaries, July 2016 median & sales with June 2016 & July 2015 in brackets:

North Shore, $1,062,500 ($1,068,500, $939,000), sales 408 (448, 555)
Waitakere, $803,000 ($784,250, $711,000), 350 (350, 400)
Auckland City, $837,000 ($850,000, $775,000), 817 (894, 979)
Manukau, $805,000 ($753,500, $685,000), 473 (538, 627)
Rodney, $852,500 ($870,000, $719,000), 178 (233, 238)
Auckland region, $825,000 ($821,000, $735,000), 2520 (2737, 3160).

Attribution: REINZ release.

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