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Auckland house price index falls, still up nationally

A slowdown – but still rising. That’s the national picture of house price movements from Quotable Value Ltd.

In Auckland, where prices soared ahead of the less meteoric rise in rest of the country and began to slow down sooner, QV’s rolling monthly index has, at best, been stalled this year but otherwise in slight decline.

For the last 3 months, the Auckland index fell 0.5%. From a year ago, it was down 0.6%.

QV said the average value in Auckland was still above $1 million – sitting at $1,038,722 in the 3 months to October – and values on average were 90.1% above the previous peak at the end of 2007.

Adjusted for inflation, Auckland values fell 2.5% over the last year and were 58.6% above the 2007 peak.

Nationally, the index rose 3.9% over the last year – the slowest rate since 2012 – and rose 0.9% over the last 3 months. The national average value for the last year months was $646,807, up 56.1% from the 2007 peak. Adjusted for inflation, the national increase was 2%, and the rise from 2007 30.3%.

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said: “The CoreLogic buyer classification data is showing the nationwide share of sales to investors has dropped back to 38.5% from a high of 40.5% in 2014 in favour of first-homebuyers, whose share has risen to 21.6%.”

Auckland market adjustments

In Auckland, QV senior consultant James Steele said: “While the rate of value growth remains subdued, values are relatively stable and there is still strong competition for well presented & located homes, which continue to achieve strong sales prices.

“It appears market activity has returned to more normal levels in outer suburbs, with more properties having asking prices, and there’s more time for buyers to carry out due diligence or get valuations & building inspections.

“Listings levels have also not experienced the usual spring surge, and only those who need to sell appear to be listing properties.

Developers dropping prices

“Some developers who need to sell sections & homes in larger scale greenfield developments are finding they having to drop their prices to achieve sales.

“Examples of this are being seen in Flat Bush, where prices for vacant fully serviced sections that were selling in the high $700,000s last year are now selling in the early $600,000s.

“This drop in land value in the area has also seen the sales prices of completed new homes drop back, and these new homes are also taking longer to sell.”

“It appears the difficulty in gaining finances to purchase due to retail banks’ stricter lending criteria is a contributing factor in this, as well as lower demand for this type of housing product and an over-supply of sections & new homes in the area.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for October. The first percentage is for the 3 months to October, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries:

Auckland region, $1,038,722, -0.5%, -0.6%, 90.1%
Rodney, $933,909, -1.7%, 1.6%, 59.2%
North, $954,769, -1.8%, 1.5%, 59.0%
Hibiscus Coast, $913,845, -1.5%, 1.9%, 55.6%
North Shore, $1,201,452, -0.1%, -1.6%, 86.2%
Coastal, $1,362,746, -1.3%, -2.0%, 80.8%
Onewa, $981,196, 3.0%, -0.9%, 97.8%
North Harbour, $1,168,764, -1.0%, -0.9%, 92.3%
Waitakere, $818,706, -0.1%, -2.2%, 93.1%
Auckland City, $1,223,913, -0.9%, 1.2%, 96.6%
Central, $1,079,721, -0.3%, 3.8%, 89.6%
East, $1,534,549, -0.7%, 2.5%, 92.6%
South, $1,090,843, -1.4%, -2.0%, 102.6%
Islands (low volume), $1,114,609, 0.8%, 7.9%, 74.4%
Manukau, $893,580, -0.5%, -1.4%, 95.2%
East, $1,151,198, -1.3%, -1.9%, 93.1%
Central, $690,284, 0.5%, -1.2%, 83.6%
North-west, $764,261, -0.4%, -0.6%, 106.9%
Papakura, $684,268, 1.3%, 0.2%, 90.2%
Franklin, $665,843, 1.1%, 3.8%, 68.3%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $495,464, 0.3%, 9.6%, 25.0%
Kaipara (low volume), $505,010, -3.2%, 15.8%, 27.3%
Hamilton, $688,533, 0.9%, 0.2%, 53.1%
Tauranga, $687,241, -0.6%, 5.4%, 42.7%
Wellington region, $738,742, 2.0%, 10.0%, 38.8%
Christchurch, $490,429, -0.9%, -1.6%, 29.3%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,092,736, 0.0%, 12.1%, 58.9%
Invercargill, $247,823, 2.1%, 8.1%, 12.4%
Total NZ, $646,807, 0.9%, 3.9%, 56.1%

Link: QV house price index for October 2017

Attribution: QV release.

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Few shifts in QV house price indexes

Quotable Value’s monthly house price indexes for Auckland are mostly stuck in the ±1% range for the last 3 months, already evident from a tighter auction market, and in today’s monthly index release the government agency looks forward to changes that might arise from the negotiations to secure the Government benches.

“What will be most interesting will be whether a new government supports the relaxing of the Reserve Bank’s loan:value (LVR) restrictions as well as what support policies get rolled out to help first-homebuyers get onto the property escalator.”

There is an expectation in that “property escalator” terminology that buying a house is to buy an investment which will rise in value.

It remains a fact of life that up is good, down is bad. At the same time, the clamour continues for more housing that is cheaper.

The pause in price rises in most of Auckland this year tells you that rises aren’t automatic or continuous, but the conclusion is inescapable that, without firm action to provide far more housing at the bottom of the price scale, escalation is inevitable.

Outside Auckland, the catchup continues, although outliers like Invercargill will never catch up (its index is up 10.9% in the decade since the global financial crisis began, compared to 104% in the southern suburbs on Auckland’s isthmus & 109% in the north-west of the old Manukau City). Even further behind Invercargill in the catchup stakes, Opotiki’s index is down 4% over the last decade and the West Coast is generally down, Greymouth by 14.6% over the last decade.

Around Auckland, the central city & central Manukau were out of kilter, both rising 0.6% over the last 3 months, and the Onewa area on the North Shore rose 0.5%.

Rural Rodney fell 3.9% over the last 3 months but was up 3.7% over 12 months.

For most of the region, shifts for the latest quarter were within a range of 1% up or down.

QV said its national index rose 4.3% over 12 months, reduced to 2.5% when adjusted for inflation, and reduced from 56% to 30.2% net of inflation since the 2007 peak.

In Auckland, the 0.8% gain over 12 months turned into a 1% decline net of inflation. The 90.1% gain since 2007 was reduced to 58.7% net of inflation.

Reductions spread around country

QV national spokesperson David Nagel said in today’s release: “The reductions in quarterly value growth have extended from just the main centres last month to almost all the 15 major urban areas we track, with the exception of Rotorua, Palmerston North, Dunedin & Invercargill.

“The year-on-year growth is still showing double digit gains in many of New Zealand’s provincial towns. However, the quarterly change shows a gradual slowing of the property market in almost all city locations.

“Values are reflecting small decreases in all but a few isolated pockets of Auckland, while Tauranga & Christchurch have also shown a small decline over the past quarter.
“The normal spring surge in property listings still hasn’t eventuated throughout most of the country, and this lack of supply has helped insulate the market from more significant falls in values.

“While the property markets appear to have run out of puff in the main urban areas, there’s still plenty of activity in the smaller provincial towns which were slower getting started.

Policy impacts awaited

“While there is uncertainty around who will govern the country in the coming weeks, there are policies that, if agreed upon under a coalition government, could influence the property market.

“These include a gradual reduction on immigration numbers which has previously helped fuel the property market, particularly in Auckland and the increase in housing supply.

“What will be most interesting will be whether a new government supports the relaxing of the Reserve Bank’s loan:value (LVR) restrictions as well as what support policies get rolled out to help first-homebuyers get onto the property escalator.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for September. The first percentage is for the 3 months to September, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries:

Auckland region, $1,039,066, -0.6%, 0.8%, 90.1%
Rodney, $939,955, -1.7%, 5.0%, 60.3%
North, $946,744, -3.9%, 3.7%, 57.6%
Hibiscus Coast, $937,359, 0.9%, 6.9%, 59.6%
North Shore, $1,195,052, -0.7%, -1.1%, 85.2%
Coastal, 1,363,735, -0.9%, -0.9%, 81.0%
Onewa, $961,224, 0.5%, -1.5%, 93.8%
North Harbour, $1,167,255, -2.0%, -0.9%, 92.1%
Waitakere, $816,408, -0.9%, -1.0%, 92.5%
Auckland City, $1,226,375, -0.1%, 2.7%, 97.0%
Central, $1,079,348, 0.6%, 5.7%, 89.5%
East, $1,532,259, -0.2%, 3.3%, 92.3%
South, $1,099,479, -0.4%, -0.3%, 104.2%
Islands, $1,088,716, -1.0%, 5.6%, 70.3%
Manukau, $897,957, -0.3%, 0.2%, 96.2%
East, $1,158,720, -0.9%, 0.3%, 94.4%
Central, $688,487, 0.6%, -0.3%, 83.2%
North-west, $771,872, 0.0%, 1.0%, 108.9%
Papakura, $679,072, 0.3%, 1.7%, 88.8%
Franklin, $663,080, -0.6%, 5.4%, 67.6%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $500,801, 1.7%, 13.5%, 26.4%
Kaipara (low volume), $515,516, -1.0%, 19.1%, 29.9%
Hamilton, $546,402, 1.3%, 3.2%, 51.1%
Tauranga, $686,759, -0.1%, 6.6%, 42.6%
Wellington region, $606,322, -0.5%, 9.6%, 33.1%
Christchurch, $491,626, -1.0%, -0.8%, 29.6%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,079,748, 0.7%, 12.6%, 57.0%
Invercargill, $244,691, 1.2%, 6.4%, 10.9%
Total NZ, $646,378, 1.1%, 4.3%, 56.0%

Link: Full QV house price index for September 2017

Attribution: QV release.

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Auckland housing off boil but still rising, QV national index up slightly

Quotable Value Ltd’s monthly house price index shows Auckland has come off the boil, but the national index is still rising slightly.

The Auckland index was 2.8% up in August compared to a year ago, the region’s slowest annual growth rate since October 2011, but the index slipped by 0.2% over the last 3 months.

The average Auckland value was $1,041,957 in July, 90.7% above the level when the market previously peaked 10 years ago, but up 59.1% adjusted for inflation. The rise over the last year was 1% when adjusted for inflation.

Nationally, the QV index rose 4.8% over the year, the slowest annual rise since August 2012, and 1.2% over the last 3 months. QV put the national average price at $641,648, up 54.9% on 10 years ago. Adjusted for inflation, the national one-year rise was 3%, the 10-year rise 29.3%.

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said today: “In Auckland new subdivisions previously popular with speculators – including those from China – have recently seen lower demand & discounted sales prices….

“It’s likely the annual spring upturn in the market may be slower to arrive, given the pending election, but with the underlying drivers of a lack of supply & high net migration particularly in Auckland still remaining, it’s possible that values may begin to rise again more steadily in the new year.”

Auckland region, $1,041,957, -0.2%, 2.8%, 90.7%
Rodney, $945,934, -1.5%, 8.8%, 61.3%
North, $962,249, -3.2%, 9.1%, 60.2%
Hibiscus Coast, $931,381, 0.1%, 8.5%, 58.6%
North Shore, $1,200,914, 0.2%, 1.5%, 86.1%
Coastal, $1,374,159, 0.3%, 2.1%, 82.4%
Onewa, $956,868, 0.3%, -0.2%, 92.9%
North Harbour, $1,179,806, -0.4%, 2.3%, 94.2%
Waitakere, $816,503, -1.1%, 1.2%, 92.6%
Auckland City, $1,232,779, 0.9%, 4.5%, 98.0%
Central, $1,084,025, 0.8%, 7.1%, 90.3%
East, $1,542,465, 1.2%, 5.2%, 93.6%
South, $1,101,122, 0.5%, 1.4%, 104.6%
Islands (low volume), $1,116,415, 3.9%, 9.3%, 74.6%
Manukau, $899,432, -0.3%, 2.0%, 96.5%
East, $1,167,107, -0.1%, 3.0%, 95.8%
Central, $682,709, -0.2%, 0.5%, 81.6%
North-west, $773,033, -0.2%, 2.0%, 109.2%
Papakura, $666,387, -2.5%, 1.3%, 85.2%
Franklin, $656,665, -2.2%, 5.7%, 66.0%

Northern border, down country & national:
Whangarei, $497,489, 3.0%, 15.7%, 25.5%
Kaipara (low volume), $513,954, -0.1%, 20.3%, 29.6%
Wellington region, $605,435, -0.4%, 12.9%, 32.9%
Christchurch, $493,069, -0.4%, 0.1%, 30.0%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,098,037, 4.4%, 18.0%, 59.7%
Invercargill, $240,725, -1.0%, 5.3%, 9.1%
Total NZ, $641,648, 1.2%, 4.8%, 54.9%

Link:
Full QV house price index for August 2017

Attribution: Quotable Value.

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QV house price index sticks at 0.0% for Auckland

Quotable Value Ltd’s house price index for Auckland remained at a standstill for the 3 months to July, continuing the 0.0% for the 3 months to June, which followed a 0.1% rise over the 3 months to May and a 0.4% dip in the 3 months to April.

!0 of QV’s survey areas around Auckland recorded falls and 9 recorded rises. Those 19 areas are the 7 former cities & districts that now make up the Auckland super-city, and 12 sub-areas within them.

QV said the 5.3% rise in Auckland values for the year was the smallest annual rate of growth since May 2012. Adjusted for inflation, the gain over the year fell from 5.3% to 3.4%, and the rise since the 2007 peak fell from 91.1% to 59.5%.

The nationwide index rise of 6.4% over the last 12 months, while ahead of the Auckland rise in percentage terms, was the smallest annual gain since February 2015. Adjusted for inflation, the annual gain fell from 6.4% to 4.6%, and the gain since the 2007 market peak fell from 54.8% to 29.2%.

Quotable Value’s average current value is the average (mean) value of all developed residential properties in the area based on the latest index. It’s not an average or median sales price, which the Real Estate Institute and Auckland agency Barfoot & Thompson use in their monthly calculations. Those measures only take into account what happens to have sold in the period.

The index shifts around the Auckland region on the old council boundaries.

Growth shifts to provincial centres

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said in today’s monthly release the continued national rise in the index was driven by regional & provincial centres, not the largest cities: “Values continue to plateau in Auckland, Hamilton & Christchurch in a trend seen since October last year, when the latest round of loan:value restrictions were introduced.

“Wellington & Dunedin are now also experiencing a similar trend, with quarterly value growth in both cities slowing to below 1.0%.”

“Much of the slowdown in the markets is being caused by high prices & banks’ stricter lending criteria, meaning it’s difficult for many buyers to raise finance to purchase and this is now constraining the market.

“Record high net migration continues, yet building consents are now trending downwards, so the underlying demand & lack of supply for homes remains in the market, particularly in Auckland.

“It’s likely that these trends will continue for the rest of the winter and many buyers & sellers are now taking a wait-&-see approach until after winter & the election.”

Auckland index movements

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries, for the Auckland region, and around the country below that (old councils & main areas in bold; 2 areas, Kaipara & Auckland’s gulf islands, carry a warning for their low transaction levels).

The dollar figure is the average value for July. The first percentage is for the 3 months to July, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak:

Auckland region, $1,044,303, 0.0%, 5.3%, 91.1%
Rodney, $949,658, -0.7%, 10.5%, 61.9%
North, $972,194, -1.4%, 11.1%, 61.9%
Hibiscus Coast, $927,802, -0.3%, 9.8%, 58.0%
North Shore, $1,202,461, 0.6%, 3.7%, 86.3%
Coastal, $1,380,887, 0.9%, 4.4%, 83.3%
Onewa, $952,432, -0.4%, 1.6%, 92.0%
North Harbour, $1,180,491, 0.1%, 4.8%, 94.3%
Waitakere, $819,426, -0.9%, 4.8%, 93.3%
Auckland City, $1,234,767, 0.9%, 6.1%, 98.3%
Central, $1,082,911, 0.3%, 7.9%, 90.1%
East, $1,546,047, 1.5%, 6.3%, 94.0%
South, $1,105,872, 0.7%, 4.3%, 105.4%
Islands (low volume), $1,105,452, 4.1%, 12.5%, 72.9%
Manukau, $898,361, -0.5%, 4.6%, 96.3%
East, $1,166,714, -0.5%, 6.0%, 95.8%
Central, $687,130, 0.8%, 3.8%, 82.8%
North-west, $767,205, -1.1%, 3.4%, 107.7%
Papakura, $675,358, -2.6%, 5.7%, 87.7%
Franklin, $658,595, -1.6%, 7.3%, 66.5%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $494,212, 3.4%, 17.2%, 24.7%
Kaipara, $521,633, 5.7%, 23.5%, 31.5%
Hamilton, $540,840, 0.4%, 5.4%, 49.6%
Tauranga, $691,350, 1.9%, 12.3%, 43.6%
Wellington region, $724,202, 0.0%, 14.3%, 36.0%
Christchurch, $495,098, -0.2%, 0.6%, 30.5%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,092,748, 4.9%, 20.0%, 58.9%
Invercargill, $242,829, 1.4%, 8.7%, 10.1%
Total NZ, $641,280, 1.6%, 6.4%, 54.8%

Link: QV house price index for July 2017

Earlier story:
5 July 2017: Auckland house price index at standstill, still rising nationally

Attribution: QV tables & release.

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Auckland house price index at standstill, still rising nationally

Quotable Value Ltd’s house price index for Auckland was at a standstill for the 3 months to June, after coming in at a 0.1% rise over the 3 months to May and a 0.4% dip in the 3 months to April.

Over the whole country, the index is in a state of flux – up in one area, down in a neighbour.

The various indexes for Auckland & its components – local government areas on the pre-2010 boundaries and broad splits within them – showed 11 falls in the total 20 areas (which include double-ups) in the April quarter, dropping to 8 falls in the roll to May and down to 7 in the roll to June.

For the year to June, the Auckland index is showing a 7.2% gain, the slowest since September 2012. That 2011-12 period was the start of the break out from the 2011 bottom of the global financial crisis for New Zealand, and property inflation in Auckland sped up through to last year, until Reserve Bank measures, reduced Asian investment and now bank lending restrictions slowed the rise. Adjusted for inflation, QV’s index for Auckland rose 4.9% in the last year, 28.8% since the previous market peak at the end of 2007.

Nationally, the index rose 8.1% over the last year, the slowest rate since March 2015, and 1.2% over the last 3 months. Adjusted for inflation, the annual increase dropped to 5.9% and the rise since 2007 to 28.8%.

QV view

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said Auckland sales volumes had plummeted 30% below the number a year ago “as high prices, coupled with banks’ stricter lending criteria, are making it increasingly difficult for anyone but cash buyers or those with higher levels of equity to buy property.

“It has also become much more difficult for developers to gain finance to build new homes, which is now leading to a slowdown in building activity in the market.

“The CoreLogic Buyer classification data shows the share of sales to all buyers requiring a mortgage has dropped and the share of sales to cash buyers remains steady.

Around the country

“Meanwhile, in the other main centres, values are now rising again in Hamilton & Tauranga after decreasing earlier in the year. A slowdown in value growth in the Wellington market is now more evident in the QV house price index data and Porirua, a previous hot spot, has seen values decrease over the past quarter.

“The Christchurch market is flat, with some areas seeing a slight decrease in values over the past quarter, while values continue to rise in a relatively buoyant Dunedin market.”

“Values in regional centres such as the Kaipara district north of Auckland, Hawke’s Bay, Nelson & the Tasman district are now seeing stronger value growth than the main centres as buyers look to the regions in search of more affordable homes.”

Auckland detail

Ms Rush said values around the Auckland region continued to plateau, and values remaining steady over at 0.0% change over the last 3 months: “Values have continued to rise in some parts of the Auckland region but have decreased in others. Auckland City–Islands rose the most over the past quarter, with values rising 3.1% since April and 13.3% year on year. Rodney North also continued to increase more quickly than other parts of the city, up 2.2% over the past 3 months and 13.6% year on year. Values decreased in the Auckland City apartment market and also Auckland City east & south; as well as in Waitakere, Manukau north-west, Papakura & Franklin over the past 3 months.”

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries, and for the Auckland region, and around the country below that (old councils & main areas in bold; 2 areas, Kaipara & Auckland’s gulf islands, carry a warning for their low transaction levels).

The dollar figure is the average value for June. The first percentage is for the 3 months to June, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak:

Auckland region, $1,045,059, 0.0%, 7.2%, 91.2%
Rodney, $955,814, 1.6%, 11.9%, 63.0%
North, $984,933, 2.2%, 13.6%, 64.0%
Hibiscus Coast, $928,686, 0.9%, 10.2%, 58.1%
North Shore, $1,203,775, 0.2%, 6.0%, 86.5%
Coastal, $1,376,695, 0.1%, 6.2%, 82.7%
Onewa, $956,862, 0.4%, 4.8%, 92.9%
North Harbour, $1,190,626, 0.5%, 7.5%, 95.9%
Waitakere, $823,630, -0.6%, 6.8%, 94.2%
Auckland City, $1,228,005, -0.1%, 7.1%, 97.3%
Central, $1,073,116, 1.0%, 7.8%, 88.4%
East, $1,534,921, -0.5%, 7.1%, 92.6%
South, $1,103,498, 6.1%, -0.5%, 105.0%
Hauraki Gulf islands, $1,099,383, 3.1%, 13.3%, 72.0%
Manukau, $900,766, 0.0%, 7.0%, 96.8%
East, $1,169,679, 0.3%, 8.0%, 96.2%
Central, $684,184, 0.4%, 5.3%, 82.0%
North-west, $771,795, -0.5%, 6.6%, 108.9%
Papakura, $677,340, -1.8%, 8.1%, 88.3%
Franklin, $666,845, -0.1%, 9.0%, 68.6%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $492,588, 4.3%, 19.6%, 24.3%
Kaipara, $520,852, 10.5%, 24.3%, 31.3%
Hamilton, $539,357, 1.2%, 9.5%, 49.2%
Tauranga, $687,364, 1.6%, 14.6%, 42.8%
Wellington region, $609,552, 2.4%, 18.0%, 33.8%
Christchurch, $496,378, -0.1%, 1.1%, 30.8%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,071,995, 2.9%, 19.2%, 55.9%
Invercargill, $241,770, 1.9%, 9.2%, 9.6%
Total NZ, $639,051, 1.2%, 8.1%, 54.2%

Link:
Full index:  QV house price index for June 2017

Attribution: QV statistics & release.

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Small housing index lift in Auckland – Kaipara & Opotiki now the leaders

Quotable Value Ltd’s index for the Auckland region rose 0.1% in the 3 months to May after dipping by 0.4% in the 3 months to April.

Nationally, the index rose from no change to April, to a 0.4% gain to May.

QV national spokeswoman Andrea Rush said in the organisation’s monthly release, out today, the 9.7% index rise nationally for the last 12 months was the slowest annual rate in 2 years. In Auckland, the annual rate dropped from 10.7% at April to 9.3% at May.

The big hitters now are Kaipara, up 9.2% for the last 3 months and up 25.1% for 12 months but up only 29.6% since the previous peak at the end of 2007, and the one place showing double-digit growth in the last 3 months, Opotiki. The index there rose 12.9% over 3 months (like the Kaipara, on low volume), and 22.5% over the year, but is up only 0.8% since 2007.

The index for Auckland overall and for many of the hot spots have been easing for months, but the latest figures show a few places have risen again. QV shows 20 Auckland areas (the region, the old council areas and some of those areas broken down) in its presentation of the indexes nationally, and 11 of those 20 areas were negative for the 3 months to April.

For the 3 months to May, however, the negatives fell to 8, starting with a turnaround for the whole region. The North Shore & 2 of its components, the coastal area & North Harbour, turned positive while Papakura turned negative.

These index measures aren’t adjusted for inflation, but QV issues an inflation-adjusted version for its national index and for Auckland. Nationally, the 12-month rise was 7.4% adjusted for inflation, and 27.8% since 2007. In Auckland, the 12-month rise was 7.0%, 44.0% since the 2007 peak.

The QV picture

QV’s indexes around the country for the last 12 months.

Ms Rush said: “Nationwide value growth continues to ease back due to lower demand in the housing market caused by the latest round of LVR restrictions and tougher lending criteria from the banks as we head into the winter period.

“Sales volumes are lower than they were this time last year, particularly in Auckland, and it’s possible market activity may now remain more subdued until after the election.

“Value growth continues to be stronger in Wellington & Dunedin than in the other main centres but is also starting to ease back a little.

“With Auckland & Hamilton only seeing very slight value growth over the past 3 months and values dropping slightly in Christchurch, these markets are relatively flat by comparison.

“Values in Tauranga are showing stronger quarterly growth than last month, but across the board it appears much of the frenzy has come out of the housing market there and have returned to more normal levels of activity & demand.”

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries, and for the Auckland region, and around the country below that (old councils & main areas in bold). The dollar figure is the average value for May. The first percentage is for the 3 months to May, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak:

Auckland region, $1,044,561, 0.1%, 9.3%, 91.1%
Rodney, $960,087, 2.5%, 13.1%, 63.7%
North, $994,136, 3.9%, 15.5%, 58.4%
Hibiscus Coast, $930,274, 1.3%, 10.9%, 65.5%
North Shore, $1,198,381, 0.1%, 7.9%, 85.7%
Coastal, $1,369,770, 0.5%, 8.0%, 81.8%
Onewa, $953,727, -1.0%, 7.4%, 92.3%
North Harbour, $1,184,048, 0.7%, 8.6%, 94.9%
Waitakere, $825,736, -0.7%, 7.9%, 94.7%
Auckland City, $1,222,137, -0.7%, 7.9%, 96.3%
Central, $1,075,398, 1.2%, 9.5%, 88.8%
East, $1,524,074, -1.1%, 8,8%, 91.2%
South, $1,096,186, -0.4%, 8.3%, 103.6%
Hauraki Gulf islands, $1,074,011, 1.6%, 15.1%, 68.0%
Manukau, $902,068, 0.0%, 9.4%, 97.1%
East, $1,168,644, 0.8%, 10.8%, 96.1%
Central, $684,048, -0.2%, 6.3%, 82.0%
North-west, $774,309, -1.4%, 9.7%, 109.6%
Papakura, $683,812, -0.4%, 11.9%, 90.1%
Franklin, $671,396, 1.2%, 11.9%, 69.7%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $483,049, 3.2%, 19.4%, 21.9%
Kaipara, $514,219, 9.2%, 25.1%, 29.6%
Hamilton, $537,152, 0.9%, 12.3%, 48.6%
Tauranga, $683,012, 1.3%, 15.4%, 41.9%
Wellington region, $727,119, 2.4%, 19.2%, 36.6%
Christchurch, $495,070, -0.7%, 1.0%, 30.5%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,052,211, 1.2%, 20.3%, 53.0%
Invercargill, $243,144, 3.1%, 11.3%, 10.2%
Total NZ, $634,018, 0.4%, 9.7%, 53.0%

Link:
Full index: QV house price index for May 2017

Attribution: QV statistics & release.

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QV housing index shows much of Auckland stalled, fringes rising, gains around most of country

Quotable Value Ltd’s rolling 3-monthly house price index for the Auckland region fell for the third month in a row in April.

The indexes for the North Shore, Waitakere & Manukau (QV continues to calculate on the old council boundaries before the super-city came into being in October 2016) began their declines in February, but Manukau regained a small amount of ground in April.

The isthmus – the old Auckland City – stayed positive until its small decline in April.

Rodney – the poor rural cousin of the north, with a rapidly growing urban area on the Hibiscus Coast – has been registering 2%-plus gains this year as its prices catch up. In the south, Papakura & Franklin have made smaller gains.

Nothing about these movements, or those elsewhere in the country, is surprising. The boom run started in central Auckland, as it usually does, spiralled out through the region’s suburbs and eventually caught on around the country, again as it usually does.

The Auckland dream run – for affluent retirees wanting to sell out on a high – was pushed along by a shortage of stock in some more highly priced segments of the market, particularly in the eastern suburbs on the isthmus. In those circumstances, the arrival of planeloads of Chinese buyers wanting to invest in hard assets quickly, without any apparent concern for relativity within the local market, was a godsend for vendors.

New rules in both China & New Zealand have tamed the casino feel of the auctionrooms.

Prices on the isthmus, the North Shore and parts of old Manukau have declined, but the averages on the isthmus, the Shore and for the whole region remain above $1 million.

Price indexes in other parts of the country have shot up in recent months, as the charts for Wellington & Queenstown-Lakes demonstrate. Invercargill is an example of a city where prices began to pick up in late 2015, but it remains well behind the national index, which is dominated by the still more robust Auckland market.

Quotable Value said today Auckland values rose 10.7% over the last 12 months (8.4% when adjusted for inflation), the slowest annual rate of growth since December 2014. Nominally, and that’s what matters in a bull market, Auckland’s house values are 91% above the peak at the end of 2007, and 59.4% above when adjusted for inflation.

Nationally, the index rose 11.1% over the last 12 months (8.7% when adjusted for inflation), 52.3% since 2007 (27.2% net of inflation).

And the average prices are a mile apart – just over $1 million for Auckland, Wellington $602,000, the national average $631,000.

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries (old councils in bold) and for the Auckland region. The dollar figure is the average value for April. The first percentage is for the 3 months to April, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak:

Rodney, $956,733, 2.5%, 14.4%, 63.1%
North, $986,101, 2.6% 16.5%, 64.2%
Hibiscus Coast, $930,208, 2.3%, 12.5%, 58.4%
North Shore, $1,195,292, -1.6%, 8.5%, 85.2%
Coastal, $1,369,047, -1.3%, 9.2%, 81.7%
Onewa, $948,963, -2.3%, 7.5%, 91.3%
North Harbour, $1,179,375, -0.9%, 8.8%, 94.1%
Waitakere, $826,454, -1.2%, 9.6%, 94.9%
Auckland City, $1,223,387, -0.1%, 11.0%, 96.5%
Central, $1,079,879, 1.4%, 12.8%, 89.6%
East, $1,523,289, -0.6%, 10.6%, 91.1%
South, $1,098,608, -0.8%, 10.2%, 104.1%
Hauraki Gulf islands, $1,061,490, 2.4%, 14.0%, 66.0%
Manukau, $903,160, 0.2%, 11.1%, 97.3%
East, $1,172,617, 1.2%, 12.6%, 96.7%
Central, $681,590, -0.7%, 7.5%, 81.3%
North-west, $775,680, -0.7%, 11.3%, 110.0%
Papakura, $693,239, 1.3%, 13.9%, 92.7%
Franklin, $669,518, 1.4%, 12.7%, 69.3%
Auckland region, $1,043,830, -0.4%, 10.7%, 91.0%

Northern border, down country & national:

Kaipara, $493,324, 6.3%, 22.8%, 24.4%
Hamilton, $538,832, 1.4%, 14.1%, 49.1%
Tauranga, $678,643, 0.9%, 17.5%, 40.9%
Wellington region, $602,230, 3.4%, 21.2%, 32.2%
Christchurch, $495,855, -0.3%, 1.4%, 30.7%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,041,830, 0.9%, 23.7%, 51.5%
Invercargill, $239,486, 0.1%, 10.0%, 8.6%
Total NZ, $631,147, 0.0%, 11.1%, 52.3%

Link:
QV house price index April 2017

Attribution: QV statistics & release, my commentary.

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QV house price index shows central Auckland holding, Shore & Waitakere down again, extremities rising

Quotable Value Ltd’s monthly house price index, out today, shows a continuing slide in values around some of Auckland in March, but the extremities of Rodney & Franklin still catching up on the growth they’ve missed out on over the last 9 years.

The indexes for the extremities – and for the rest of the country – will turn downward before they do catch up. In the meantime, however, their values have been growing over the last few months while the indexes for Auckland’s main urban areas have softened.

QV produces its monthly house price index on rolling 3-month & 12-month bases.

It’s not all downward on the isthmus – the index for the central area was up 0.7% in February and still showing a 0.1% gain in the 3 months to March. The eastern suburbs were up 1.3% in the 3 months to February, and rose to a 1.5% gain in the latest 3-month period, to March. The southern suburbs lost ground in February, down 1.3%, but regained 0.3% in March.

And the islands, chiefly Waiheke, gained 2.7% in the 3 months to March and increased that gain to 4.4% in the latest period, though those figures need to be assessed against a low volume of data, which can result in exceptional index movements.

North Shore & Waitakere prices weakened in the 3 months to February, and lost further ground in March, except in the North Harbour (Albany) area, where the index was static in March.

Mixed picture around country

Around the country, the price picture is mixed.

The cheapest city in the country, Gisborne, made a 2.8% gain in the latest 3 months, Queenstown Lakes the one place outside Auckland with an average price over $1 million – gained 2%, Wellington 3.7% – and Central Otago 10%.

Over the longer period since the previous price peak, at the end of 2007, Auckland – from the Shore down to Papakura – remains well ahead of the price level 9 years ago. The southern suburbs on the isthmus are 106% ahead of the 2007 level, and the north-west of old Manukau City is 110% ahead.

The Wellington region, left well behind during Auckland’s strongest boom years, is still only 30.7% ahead of the level in 2007, compared to a 60% gain in Rodney and a 69% gain in Franklin over that period.

QV national spokeswoman Andrea Rush said, “The Wellington region continues to see some of the strongest value growth of any area in New Zealand, particularly in more affordable areas outside the central city such as Porirua & the Hutt Valley.”

“Meanwhile, values in parts of Auckland, Hamilton & Christchurch are still seeing a slight downward trend, but values are stabilising and continuing to rise in other parts of these main centres as well. This means the downward trend & dampening in these markets seen since the latest round of loan:value ratio restriction may be shallower than expected.

“It’s possible we may see values start to rise in these main centres in coming months, given that the market is still being driven by a high number of sales to investors, record high net migration, relatively low interest rates, a lack of supply and fewer taxes on property investment than many other countries.”

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries and for the Auckland region. The first percentage is for the 3 months to February, the second is for the 3 months to March, followed by changes over the last 12 months & since the 2007 peak. The dollar figure is the average value for March:

Rodney, $940,701, 1.4%, 1.2%, 13.3%, 60.4%
North, $964,038, 0.8%, 0.7%, 13.4%, 56.7%
Hibiscus Coast, $920,149, 2.6%, 1.8%, 13.3%, 60.5%
North Shore, $1,201,367, -2.2%, -1.4%, 11.5%, 86.2%
Coastal, $1,375,264, -2.7%, -1.5%, 12.6%, 82.5%
Onewa, $952,902, -2.2%, -2.3%, 9.9%, 92.1%
North Harbour, $1,184,914, -1.0%, 0.0%, 11.1%, 95.0%
Waitakere, $828,959, -1.7%, -1.4%, 12.1%, 95.5%
Auckland City, $1,229,715, 0.2%, 0.9%, 12.5%, 97.5%
Central, $1,062,943, 0.7%, 0.1%, 10.8%, 86.6%
East, $1,542,858, 1.3%, 1.5%, 13.3%, 93.6%
South, $1,108,497, -1.3%, 0.3%, 12.2%, 105.9%
Islands (all on low data), $1,066,785, 2.7%, 4.4%, 17.8%, 66.9%
Manukau, $900,324, -0.4%, -0.5%, 12.6%, 96.7%
East, $1,165,890, -0.7%, 0.4%, 13.8%, 95.6%
Central, $681,232, -1.7%, -1.0%, 9.3%, 81.2%
North-west, $775,666, 1.6%, -0.8%, 13.3%, 109.9%
Papakura, $689,859, 0.9%, 1.2%, 12.6%, 91.8%
Franklin, $667,209, 2.4%, 1.1%, 13.1%, 68.7%
Auckland region, $1,045,362, -0.7%, -0.2%, 12.3%, 91.3%

Other places & nationally:

Kaipara (all on low data), $471,203, 0.8%, 20.6%, 18.8%
Hamilton, $532,888, -0.4%, 15.7%, 47.4%
Gisborne, $276,793, 2.8%, 18.0%, -6.9%
Wellington region, $595,501, 3.7%, 21.2%, 30.7%
Queenstown Lakes, $1,042,258, 2.0%, 28.5%, 51.6%
Central Otago, $437,791, 10.0%, 22.8%, 38.1%
Total NZ, $631,432, 0.6%, 12.9%, 52.4%

Attribution: QV tables & release.

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Shore & Manukau housing values drop over last quarter

Housing values on the North Shore, a few spots on the isthmus and in Manukau have slipped in the latest report by Quotable Value, out today.

QV produces its monthly house price index on rolling 3-month & 12-month bases.

The whole of the Auckland region slipped by 0.7% in the last 3 months. The biggest declines in the region were in the old North Shore City boundaries, where the index for the whole the old city fell 2.2%, as did the Onewa area. Coastal property values fell 2.7% on average.

Nationally, values were up 1.1% over the 3 months, 13.5% over the last year.

QV said the index for Auckland was still up 12.8% over the year despite the more recent declines. Adjusted for inflation, Auckland values rose 11.3% over the last year, 61% since the 2007 peak. Nationally, adjusted for inflation, the index rose 12.0% over the year, 28.5% since the 2007 peak.

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries, plus Kaipara, the Auckland & Wellington regions and nationally – the latest average value & index shifts in the last 3 months, last 12 months & since the 2007 peak:

Kaipara, $470,913, 8.1%, 25.3%, 18.7%
Rodney, $936,877, 1.4%, 13.6%, 59.7%
North, $957,228, 0.8%, 13.6%, 59.4%
Hibiscus Coast, $918,495, 2.6%, 13.4%, 56.4%
North Shore, $1,196,987, -2.2%, 11.2%, 85.5%
Coastal, $1,363,263, -2.7%, 11.6%, 80.9%
Onewa, $962,999, -2.2%, 11.0%, 94.1%
North Harbour, $1,176,182, -1.0%, 11.2%, 93.6%
Waitakere, $831,705, -1.7%, 13.8%, 96.2%
Auckland City, $1,224,673, 0.2%, 12.5%, 96.7%
Central, $1,062,336, 0.7%, 11.6%, 86.5%
East, $1,540,731, 1.3%, 13.5%, 93.3%
South, $1,100,193, -1.3%, 11.5%, 104.4%
Islands, $1,057,341, 2.7%, 18.9%, 65.4%
Manukau, $902,477, -0.4%, 14.2%, 97.2%
East, $1,159,890, -0.7%, 14.5%, 94.6%
Central, $685,233, -1.7%, 11.6%, 82.3%
North-west, $785,112, 1.6%, 16.2%, 112.5%
Papakura, $686,465, 0.9%, 13.6%, 90.8%
Franklin, $663,638, 2.4%, 13.3%, 67.8%
Auckland region, $1,043,680, -0.7%, 12.8%, 91.0%
Wellington region, $589,784, 4.3%, 21.5%, 29.4%
Total NZ, $631,349, 1.1%, 13.5%, 52.4%

Link:
QV house price index for February 2017

Attribution: QV release.

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Tighter LVR rules bring fourth-quarter house price slowdown

Quotable Value Ltd’s house price index to December, released today, confirms the slowdown that became very evident in auctionrooms once the Reserve Bank introduced new restrictions that took effect from 1 October.

Those restrictions, announced in September, required residential property investors generally to have a 40% deposit for a mortgage loan, and owner-occupiers generally to have a 20% deposit.

A second slowdown cause is the more cautious approach taken by Chinese investors in Auckland towards the end of the year. That caution is likely to be heightened following tightening of capital outflows by China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange over the New Year.

Auckland real estate agency Barfoot & Thompson’s managing director, Peter Thompson, saw every indication in his agency’s sales & supply figures on Monday that the rise in the residential market had stopped.

The Quotable Value figures for the Auckland region – the driver of price change throughout the country – show declines from November to December in the average price, December $1,047,179 (November $1,051,387), rolling quarterly value change, 1.5% (3.7%), rolling annual change, 12.2% (12.8%), and the increase in values for the region since the previous market peak at the end of 2007, 91.6% (92.4%).

2 places in Auckland index decreases for the last quarter – the Hauraki Gulf islands by 0.9% and central Manukau by 0.3%.

Wellington & Dunedin hold out against trend

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said the Auckland price increases were reduced net of inflation to 11.9% for the year, 62.4% since 2007. Nationally, those figures net of inflation were 12.2% for the year, 28.5% since 2007.

Ms Rush said: “December saw a continuation of the trend of a slowing rate of value growth, activity & demand. This trend has been seen in many of the main centres since the introduction of the loan:value ratioss, which require a minimum 40% deposit for investment properties.

“This, coupled with the annual Christmas holiday period slowdown, has led to a decrease in values in some parts of Auckland, Hamilton & Christchurch since November.

“However, in Wellington values continue to rise faster than in Auckland, but at a slightly slower rate than prior to the LVRs being introduced.

“In Dunedin, there has so far been no evident slowing in the housing market because of the new LVRs and value levels continue to increase and sales activity has remained strong throughout the Christmas period.

“This is likely to be due to the fact the Dunedin housing market offers a much lower entry level & price point than the other main centres. Thus it’s easier for investors to find a 40% deposit to purchase there and investors have remained active there.

“A similar trend of plateauing/decreasing values was seen in the Auckland market over the summer period last year following the introduction of the (30%) LVRs for the super-city region only.

“In 2016, the Auckland market then picked up in March, which is usually the busiest month of the year, and it’s possible we may see this happen again.

“However, if interest rates continue to rise during 2017, this may further reduce demand from investors and lead to a longer period of lower value growth.

“But any slowdown will be balanced by the fact the market is still being driven by strong net migration, relatively low interest rates and a lack of supply compared to the demand, particularly in Auckland.”

Mixed picture in Auckland

QV’s Auckland general manager, Jan O’Donoghue, said: “With interest rates set to rise further during 2017, it appears some investors are choosing not to buy more property as they have lower expectations of potential capital gains during 2017. However, properties with subdivision potential under the new unitary plan are still selling well and achieving record prices.

“This includes properties in areas that are close to up-&-coming town centres and have good transport links, in suburbs such as Mt Wellington & New Lynn.

“Units that don’t have subdivision potential are less popular because there is low expectation of achieving capital gains.”

QV’s index figures around Auckland on the old council boundaries, plus Kaipara, Hamilton, Tauranga, the Auckland & Wellington regions, Christchurch, Queenstown Lakes and nationally – the latest average value & index shifts in the last 3 months, last 12 months & since the 2007 peak:

Kaipara, $467,348, 8.0%, 27.8%, 17.8%
Rodney, $929,162, 3.8%, 14.0%, 58.4%
North, $957,501, 4.9%, 15.6%, 59.4%
Hibiscus Coast, $903,672, 3.0%, 12.4%, 53.9%
North Shore, $1,395,709, 1.5%, 12.1%, 88.8%
Coastal, $1,218,254, 0.9%, 11.8%, 85.2%
Onewa, $975,593, 0.0%, 11.1%, 96.7%
North Harbour, $1,184,533, 0.6%, 12.4%, 94.9%
Waitakere, $840,639, 2.0%, 12.4%, 98.3%
Auckland City, $1,218,979, 2.0%, 11.2%, 95.8%
Central, $1,062,115, 4.0%, 11.7%, 86.5%
East, $1,520,349, 2.5%, 10.7%, 90.8%
South, $1,104,779, 0.2%, 11.5%, 105.2%
Islands, $1,021,594, -0.9%, 12.7%, 59.8%
Manukau, $904,516, 1.0%, 13.6%, 97.6%
East, $1,161,823, 0.6%, 13.7%, 94.9%
Central, $688,248, -0.3%, 11.1%, 83.1%
North-west, $781,663, 2.2%, 15.4%, 111.6%
Papakura, $681,953, 2.1%, 13.3%, 89.6%
Franklin, $659,906, 4.9%, 13.8%, 66.8%
Auckland region, $1,047,179, 1.5%, 12.2%, 91.6%
Hamilton, $534,860, 1.1%, 20.4%, 48.0%
Tauranga, $672,197, 4.3%, 24.0%, 39.6%
Wellington region, $574,410, 3.9%, 20.5%, 26.1%
Christchurch, $494,247, -0.3%, 2.5%, 30.3%
Queenstown Lakes, $1,022,214, 6.6%, 31.6%, 48.6%
Total NZ, $627,905, 1.3%, 12.5%, 51.5%.

Earlier story:
6 September 2016: Reserve Bank confirms loan restrictions go nationwide

Attribution: QV release.

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