Experimental figures Statistics NZ released today show 97% of new dwelling consents lead to a completed home.
Statistics NZ has been upgrading the regular statistics it provides, both within tables and through sets of information & summaries, but this piece of the puzzle was missing through a period when politicians & lobbyists were busily proclaiming trends, causes & proposed solutions anyway.
The Government organisation produces monthly building consent figures, quarterly estimates of building work undertaken, and quarterly estimates of how many homes there are in New Zealand. The missing element was just how many consents are completed, when they are completed and where in New Zealand they are.
To answer this, Statistics NZ produced some new experimental statistics. The test figures show that, while almost all building consents result in homes over time, “it can take almost a year from the time a consent is issued before the house-warming starts”.
Statistics NZ released experimental dwelling estimates yesterday on the Stats NZ innovation website. These include initial estimates of how many homes have been completed in the country’s 67 territorial authority areas and what the supply of housing is in each location.
Statistics NZ accommodation and construction indicators manager Melissa McKenzie said the estimates suggested that, at a national level:
- About 97% of dwelling consents lead to a home being finished, though it dropped to about 93% during the 2008 global financial crisis
- It currently takes about 10 months for a new home to be built after a dwelling consent is issued. The lag was about 6 months in 1998, and 12 months in 2008
- About 28,000 new dwellings were completed in the year ended March 2017. Just under 31,000 dwellings were consented during the same period
- About 1.84 million private dwellings were available in New Zealand at March 2017, comparable to the official dwelling & household estimates
- Dwelling & household estimates to be released today provide an estimate for the June 2017 quarter using official methodology.
Ms McKenzie said: “While consents show an intention to build and are a good indicator of construction, we want to know how many are actually being built across New Zealand. At this stage, the new estimates are simply a test. Stats NZ is seeking feedback to see if people find the figures useful and how they could be improved.”
Attribution: Statistics NZ release.