Archive | Population

Economist sees scope for house price fall – my picture more complicated

Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said yesterday the economic consultancy saw “scope for a 12% drop in property values by the end of 2020”.

That turned into this heading: House prices to fall 12% by 2020.

A 12% price fall in 3 years – or a multitude of trend changes? I interpolate:

Some have fallen that much this year while others have been taken off the market because the windfall window has passed. How & what you measure makes a big difference.

When the America’s Cup was first touted as coming to Auckland in the 1980s, my house’s value – along with every other house in the neighbourhood – rose overnight by a million dollars. But few houses actually went on the market to catch this windfall, a handful of homes sold at escalated prices, the cup event didn’t come and the market shot back to where it had been. Did homes drop in value? They didn’t in reality rise.

Auckland was unusual in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008 – on Quotable Value’s figures, a drop from double-digit price growth in 2007 to a decline of about 7% both nationally & in Auckland in 2008, followed by a 3% turnaround nationally in 2009 – and a rise of 7.3% for the year in Auckland.

By late 2011 – the year housing consents bottomed – Auckland’s house price index was above the level of the previous peak in late 2007, but on low turnover.

Through to late 2016, both prices & turnover rose. Turnover is now down, and you can see vendors facing hard decisions at auction. Yet, at auction this week, some apartments sold at high price levels – above $10,000/m² for secondary stock that’s now “old”. That can be attributed partly to the rising cost of construction for new developments.

The unitary plan has put another factor into the pricing equation, the ability to intensify sections that previously might have been able to take only 2 townhouses. This potential can raise the apparent value of standalone houses throughout suburbia, though it’s actually a change in land values.

Mr Kiernan raises mortgage rates as a factor below, suggesting a rise could keep some buyers out of the market. Higher interest rates or increased supply over the last 15 years, or both, would have suppressed prices. Supply is starting to increase but, while net immigration keeps rising, that supply will still fall short. That could encourage price rises while, at the same time, ordinary local buyers will tot up capital & mortgage costs which will show prices for them must come down.

Over the last 4 years, New Zealand turned – swiftly – from a net outflow of 39,000 migrants/year to Australia to a zero outflow, and a little more slowly to a net inflow of almost that number (33,900 in 2016) just into Auckland.

Those migration tides can reverse again just as quickly but, as I’ve suggested below, other factors come into play and one of those is amenity for new developments.

Kiernan: several risks hanging over economy

Mr Kiernan said the solid outlook for growth – a prediction of 3%-plus gdp growth over the 3 years to June 2019 – masked several risks hanging over the economy: “Mortgage holders in Auckland look particularly vulnerable to even modest interest rate rises that are likely to occur in the next 2-3 years. Debt-servicing costs in the city now take up a greater proportion of income than in 2007, when mortgage rates reached 8.7%. A future rise of 1.5-2 percentage points in mortgage rates would clearly stretch many borrowers in Auckland and squeeze potential buyers out of the market.”

Infometrics predicts that wholesale interest rates will gradually rise further in the next few months and that the Reserve Bank will start increasing the official cashrate by mid-2018.

“Net migration & population growth will be easing at the same time as interest rates start to rise, and this cocktail could be the catalyst for a housing market correction. Apart from the stresses on the market in Auckland, underlying demand conditions in some other regions do not justify current high prices, and we see scope for a 12% drop in property values by the end of 2020.”

Looking at the wider economy, Mr Kiernan turned first to employment: “Despite the unemployment rate edging up to 5.2% in data released this week, the labour market has been tightening across the board. The capacity constraints that have previously been most intense in the construction & tourism sectors are becoming more widespread.

“Infometrics expects to see increased wage pressures as firms battle harder to attract & retain staff, with the unemployment rate dropping back below 5.0% in 2017 and continuing to decline over the next 2 years.”

Next up, international politics: “Heightened political uncertainty also has the potential to derail New Zealand’s growth train. At this stage, the main threat to New Zealand from US President Trump’s policy agenda appears to be potential trade barriers against China.

“Mr Trump has talked about 45% tariffs on Chinese imports, which would reduce American demand for Chinese products, dampening economic growth in our largest export market and undermining New Zealand’s export incomes.

“President Trump’s proposal is a significant threat to Chinese & global economic growth, and New Zealand would not be able to dodge the flow-on effects over the following couple of years if trade barriers between China & the US were implemented.

“Closer to home, a change of government or a shift in the balance of power after New Zealand goes to the polls on 23 September could also affect our medium-term economic outlook.”

Migration factors

Bald assertions can take some filling in to make sense. For migration & population growth, the biggest factor is the Australian economy.

In the June 2015 year, Australia’s net migrant inflow was 168,000, down nearly 10% from the previous year, and 40% went to New South Wales. The country’s population rose by 338,000 (1.4%) to 24.1 million in the year to June 2016. Incredibly, those seem to be the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The New South Wales economy seems to be in better shape than other states’, which may lead to a resumption of higher emigration from New Zealand in the next couple of years. A resumption of growth in Western Australia’s mining sector looks further away than that.

The Auckland construction market looks overheated and, combined with the unusually high level of infrastructure underway, will drain labour from other parts of the country and require imported labour.

One factor in New Zealand’s migration statistics that’s played down is the proportion of migrants from India, many on student visas and therefore seen as not really permanent migrants. I regard that pool of migrants differently, as a revolving supply because many return home, but still showing a net increase of over 10,000/year, at a similar level to the net inflow from China.

Statistics NZ projections

Statistics NZ’s latest regional projections show Auckland’s population growing at just over 1%/year on the low projection through to 2043, and at nearly 2% on the high projection.

One question there is whether the supply of and for housing will increase enough to dampen the increase in its price. The high growth projection for Auckland over the 5 years to 2023 would see the population up by 200,000 to 1.94 million – by an average 40,000/year, which would require an extra 14,800 homes/year to satisfy demand.

Changing trends will complicate values

The trend in new housing is toward less standalone housing and more intensive development, notably lowrise townhouses & suburban units along with retirement village units rather than a high concentration of apartments. Land values based on higher potential may change that lowrise preference.

A combination of the unitary plan allowing more building height, particularly in both suburban & regional centres, and council organisation Panuku Development Auckland’s regeneration programme for as many as 20 centres around the region could see an increase in apartment living as commercial & retail centre amenity improves.

That would shift the pricing focus away from houses in the most expensive suburbs and to different kinds of home. The expensive suburbs are likely to retain their high pricing levels because of limited supply – one reason they’re expensive even on bad days – but housing elsewhere should graduate to new ranges.

To achieve those changes, more amenities will be needed in suburban centres. As a city apartment dweller told me yesterday, Auckland fares poorly in the provision of amenities for apartment occupants compared to many cities in other countries, such as Vancouver & Sydney.

Some developments provide a pool or a gym, many don’t. Rather than an increase in inhouse amenities, and against council budgets which are very unlikely to allow for an expansion of communally owned amenities, the growth of apartment living in suburban centres could be matched by the separate private-sector provision of amenities.

That in itself would produce 2 value changes – one to reduce the value of apartments by eliminating costly inhouse amenities, the other to increase their value for proximity to externally available amenities.

Attribution: Infometrics release, my own economic date, Statistics NZ, Australian Bureau of Statistics.

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Strong population growth projected to continue for Auckland as much of country slows

Statistics NZ said on Wednesday its projections suggested the record growth rates seen in recent years would begin to subside but Auckland will keep growing.

The projections for the 30 years 2013-43 indicate Auckland will receive over half the net migrant inflow and will account for over half the country’s growth.

The biggest concentrations of growth will be in the Waitemata local board area – the cbd, to Parnell in the east, Westmere in the west, south to Grafton & Great North Rd, and also including Waiheke Island – and Upper Harbour, which takes in Whenuapai, Hobsonville & Albany. Both Waitemata & Upper Harbour’s populations are expected to grow at an average 2.6%/year.

From a starting point of 1.49 million in 2013, the projections show high/medium/low increases for Auckland of:

2018: 1.74 million, 1.7 million, 1.66 million
2028: 2.1 million, 1.99 million, 1.87 million
2038: 2.45 million, 2.2 million, 2 million
2043: 2.6 million, 2.33 million, 2.05 million.

On those projections, Auckland’s population would grow over 30 years by:

High: 1.1 million, 1.9%/year average
Medium: 833,000, 1.5%
Low: 554,000, 1.1%

Around the rest of the country, growth is projected to be strong through to 2028, but slowing in most of the country through to 2043. The total is picked to rise from 4.4 million in 2013 to, in 2043:

High: 6.73 million, up 2.29 million at an average 1.4%/year
Medium: 5.9 million, up 1.48 million, 1%
Low: 5.1 million, 681,000, 0.5%

Statistics NZ’s projections indicate Christchurch’s growth district outside the old city, Selwyn, should average 2.6% growth to 2043, and Queenstown-Lakes 2.2%/year.

A warning from Statistics NZ on the figures: “These projections are not predictions. The projections should be used as an indication of the overall trend, rather than as exact forecasts. Statistics NZ produces low, medium & high growth projections for every local area every 2–3 years to assist planning by communities, local councils & government.

Link:
Statistics NZ, Subnational population projections

Attribution: Statistics NZ.

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2.1% population rise the biggest jump ever

Statistics NZ said today New Zealand’s population grew by 97,300 – 2.1% – in the year to June, a record number although the percentage gain has been reached before.

The estimated resident population was 4.69 million at 30 June.

Population statistics senior manager Jo-Anne Skinner said today: “Annual population growth over 2% is high by New Zealand standards. The last time we experienced population growth over 2% was in 1974. And before that, at the peak of the baby boom in the 1950s & early 1960s.”

Record levels of international migration have driven the record increase. Net migration was 69,100 over the June year – 125,100 arrivals less 56,000 departures. Natural increase (births minus deaths) contributed the remaining 28,200. The average annual net migration over the last decade has been 21,800 and average annual natural increase has been 32,300.

Ms Skinner said the large net inflow of migrants meant the younger working-age population (15–39 years) grew by 3.6% in the June year to reach 1.58 million. The older segment of our population (65+ years) also grew by 3.6% to reach 700,000.

Attribution: Statistics NZ release.

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Housing catchup starts as rapid population growth continues

Auckland grew at 119 people/day in the last year, according to the latest research from Statistics NZ. That’s equal to demand for about 44 new homes/day at an occupancy rate of 2.7/household. About 43,400 people/year, 16,000 homes/year.

Construction is cyclical but has generally fallen short of demand since the immigration spike in 2003, and a Regional Growth Forum paper 5 years before that acknowledged a shortfall in land available for housing.

Nationally, consents for new homes have been above 2000/month for the last 7 months (and most likely 8 months when Statistics NZ releases the October figures on 30 November).

In the year to September, Auckland had 9251 consents for new homes, including apartments, flats, townhouses & retirement village units. The year before that, 7366.

When the elderly move into a retirement village, they generally make a larger home available; other apartment dwellers will be a mix of empty-nesters, young couples, groups of flatmates, only some of them vacating larger homes.

Demolitions aren’t counted, and Statistics NZ’s quarterly report on building work put in place records total values but not completion numbers. Completions are also cyclical – many homes consented at the top of a building cycle won’t be built, or not immediately, and a rash of apartment developments proposed in a short timeframe will usually see a few fall by the wayside.

Factors influencing both demand & supply are predictable, and are also numerous. On the demand side, emigration has slumped while immigration has spiked upward; Australia’s economy will perk up in a year or 2, though the lift from mineral exports is likely to take longer, so the turnaround in trans-Tasman migration will have a slow start, picking up over several years; low interest rates encourage borrowing and therefore home purchase, but also contribute to the rise in capital cost; Auckland’s continuing economic growth will encourage new arrivals both domestically and from overseas; the shift toward greater acceptance of public transport and the resulting growth spots will focus both residential & business growth in hotspots around the region.

On the supply side, construction will pick up in special housing areas when infrastructure is in place, and that is being co-ordinated better now than ever before – co-ordinated to a high degree for the first time in 4 decades, probably longer; the number of proposed apartment developments has lifted sharply and might not taper off the way it has in the last few upcycles because of a change to greater acceptance of intensive living; more intensive suburban growth is starting to spread and will make greater provision for families through lowrise & midrise developments.

Economic factors will contribute to changes in employment opportunities, and therefore the population makeup, income brackets and therefore housing expectations. The private sector doesn’t have a great need to look at overall employment types, but Auckland Council has started the process toward encouraging sector development, which should lead to some significant geographic & income factors changing.

The super-city council began in 2010 with aspirations to lift poorer, and very Polynesian, South Auckland suburbs economically through the Southern Initiative. That programme has faltered but needs to be prioritised to meet higher educational demands, which will also lead to changes in housing demands.

Many see that as taking the council outside its core domain and into the central government realms of education & encouragement of business.

A feature of the super-city through the Auckland Plan, endorsed in 2012, is that it encompasses these wider issues because they affect the makeup of the city. A swathe of poor suburbs, staying poor while others prosper, guarantees future turmoil. A proactive council will lift aspirations & performance.

Meanwhile the common complaint is that the council isn’t providing the services its predecessors used to, to the same standard the predecessors used to. On my scoresheet, many issues get recognised & resolved, numerous issues don’t get resolved because of structural changes within the council or the budget has been taken away. Overall, the big issues are starting to be dealt with, at huge cost which predecessors preferred to defer or meet only partially because inadequacies in infrastructure such as sewers didn’t attract determined attention as they couldn’t be seen. And some niggly little local issues still fester.

The council has brought in many new executives with the skills to lead these changes; the next challenge is to introduce political skills to match the requirement for better decision-making. That’s not easy. Politicians need to keep an ear to the ground and can’t shift too far from their political base, while also leading rather being led by the nose.

Special housing areas

The council issued notice today of its approval of variation 11 to the proposed unitary plan for a special housing area at Whenuapai & accompanying resource consent, rezoning 16.8ha from future urban to the mixed housing suburban & local centre zones.

The qualifying development will provide for 51 residential sections (50 new, one around an existing house) & 10 superlots, along with establishing onsite infrastructure.

Last week, commissioners heard the application for private plan variation 8 to rezone 200ha at Flat Bush under the housing accord provisions.

It has 3 applicants for resource consent for qualifying developments – Hugh Green Ltd (now with the late Mr Green’s daughter, Maryanne Green, in charge), Murphys Development Ltd (Brian Hong Biao Chen, Andrew Guest & Dan Xiao) & Eastfield NZ Ltd (Lin Zi).

And today, the hearing begins for another group of plan variations & resource consents, this time covering about 240ha on the Hingaia Peninsula.

The applicants for proposed unitary plan variations 1, 5 & 7 are Karaka Brookview Ltd (Mark O’Brien and Frank, Juliet & Richard Reynolds), Hayfield SHA Ltd (Nigel Hosken & Juliet Reynolds) & Gar-Gar Ltd (Jamshed & Nilaofer Behram Meher-Homji), and KARLA (Karaka Area 1B Residents & Landowners Association) & Karaka Harbourside Estate Ltd (Ian & Jim Ross).

The Rosses have been trying unsuccessfully to get development consent for 10 years. Although some parts of their proposal and those of the Reynolds interests are disputed by council planners & engineers, early approval is conceivable.

The Rosses said that if they got consent before February they could have earthworks underway at the end of next year.

The special housing process is speeding up the ability to build, but considerations such as earthworks seasons will vary the development timeframe. Nevertheless, special housing areas are coming onstream and will add thousands of sections for development in the next couple of years.

That will be followed by changed rules for development throughout Auckland once the unitary plan is approved next year (appeals may hold up parts of it), enabling more intensive brownfields development and also setting parameters for adding more land zoned & ready for development.

Thus the bleak picture of supply failing to meet demand for most of 2 decades will be improved in large lumps, though still with a shortfall to overcome.

Attribution: Council consent documents, Statistics NZ.

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One-person households on the rise

Statistics NZ projected yesterday that one-person households – almost entirely the over-60s – would rise from 24% to 27% of the total over the 25 years to 2038.

Senior manager Vina Cullum said one-person households would be the fastest-growing household type, increasing from 390,000 in 2013 to 580,000 in 2038, and 90% of this growth in people living alone would be in the 60-plus age bracket.
The proportion of the population living alone, distinct from households, would rise from 9% to 11% over those 25 years. The 60-plus age group made up 54% of those living alone in 2013, and would make up 65% by 2038.

Ms Cullum said the total number of households was projected to increase from 1.65 million to 2.14 million, as the population grew from 4.44 million to 5.5 million. This would see the average household size drop from 2.6 to 2.5 people. In 1951 it was 3.7 and in 1981 it was 3.0.

Attribution: Statistics NZ release.

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Population growth fastest in 12 years

New Zealand’s population is growing at its fastest rate since 2003, and is exceeding Australia’s growth rate for the first time since 2004.

Statistics NZ said in its latest population estimates on Friday New Zealand’s population grew by 86,900 people (1.9%) in the June year from net immigration of 58,300 and a net natural increase of 28,700. New Zealand’s estimated resident population was 4.6 million at 30 June. The latest figures
show Australia’s population growing at 1.4%/year.
Population statistics manager Vina Cullum said the younger & older working-age populations were almost equal the 15-39 bracket made up 33.3% of the total population and the 40-64 bracket 32.2%. 2 decades ago the younger group accounted for 38.7% of the total and the older group 26.7%.

Comment: None of these figures are a surprise. The last immigration spike was in 2003-04 and the baby-boom generation – born between 1946 and the year the first of them left school, 1964 – is doing what everybody knew it would, started retiring.

What is astounding is that, as a country, we prefer to import people than have policies encouraging locally born families.

Attribution: Statistics NZ release, my comment.

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Local population projections should spur long-term policies on spreading growth – and on the dangers of decline

The most disturbing statistics out on Friday – easily ignored because they can quickly become a jumble of numbers fitting into the “maybe” & “faraway” categories – were the local population projections through to 2043.

Statistics NZ produced estimates out of the 2013 census which were confusing – for Auckland, a census-night figure of 1.4 million but a subsequent estimated resident population of 1.53 million. For the new projections for the 30 years 2013-43, in 5-year steps, the starting point has dropped by 40,000 to 1.49 million.

After a growth rate of 2.4% in the 5 years to 2006, the rate of population increase in Auckland dropped to 1.2% in the 7-year period to 2013. The new projections range from a high rate of 1.6% (940,000 more residents over 30 years), through a mid-range of 1.3% (736,000 increase) to a low range of 1% (535,000). A population gain within those projected ranges would take Auckland’s population to a low point of just over 2 million to a high point of 2.43 million.

Broadly, the statistics show Auckland will carry on growing faster than the rest of the country. From having about one-third of New Zealand’s population, the projections show Auckland would have 40% of the total by 2043 – 2.4 million of a possible 6 million on the high side, or 2.2 million of 5.6 million in the mid-range.

Overall, the projections show an aging, dying country kept stocked by new migrants as the natural increase declines.

Over the whole country, the median age of regional populations will rise everywhere, but less in Auckland. From a median of 32 in 1996, Auckland’s median is projected to rise by 8.5 years to 40.5 in 2043.

At the other extreme, Tasman, at the top of the South Island, is projected to have a population increase from 38,800 in 1996 to 54,000 in 2043. The natural increase will turn negative in the 5-year period to 2033 and the median age in 2043 is projected to be 53.8 years.

The focus in the rest of this story is on Auckland, but the national focus needs to be on ways of growing the whole country. Without migrants, New Zealand’s population would age & decline even faster than these projections reveal. Auckland, in particular, will be propped up by net immigration (from overseas & elsewhere in the country), although its birth rate is projected to rise, which isn’t the case everywhere else.

Auckland’s birth rate was 113,700 in the 7 years to 2013 and is projected to fall by 1500 over the 5 years to 2018. By the end of the 30-year period, Auckland’s birth rate is projected to rise by only 19,300/5 years, while deaths are projected to rise from 37,500 in the last census period to 66,700 in the 5 years to 2043.

Statistics NZ shows 2 immigration spikes for Auckland (the main destination for immigrants), from a 5-year inflow of 41,700 to 2001, rising to 88,900 to 2006, falling to 11,500 to 2013, rising to 80,000 to 2018, and even flows of 40,000 every 5 years after that. Those even flows show where projections can easily go wrong, taking no account of inputs such as political manipulation.

Within Auckland, the population of the Waitemata Local Board area, which includes the cbd, has been growing rapidly since 1996 – from 44,900 in 1996 to 81,300 in 2013. It’s projected to rise by another 14,100 to 2018, and by 70,000 to 151,800 by 2043.

Around the region’s other 20 local board areas, rises of 30-60,000 are projected over 30 years – except for Manurewa, with a projection of only 16,500.

Franklin, in the south, is projected to grow by 57,000 to 125,200. In the north, Rodney’s projected growth is 42,000 to 99,300 and the Hibiscus & Bays area’s is 52,000, to 146,600.

And then there’s Great Barrier Island, which has the most unusual projections of 60 births, 60 deaths, no migration and a net increase of 10 in its population in the final 5 years of the projection period, taking it to 1010 residents, still short of the resident population of 1230 in 1996, which was followed by a steady exit over the next decade.

The medium projection for the increase in Auckland of children up to the age of 14 is for a rise from 311,500 in 2013, up to 375,500 in 2043. But the 65+ age group is expected to pass the number of children in the 5 years to 2038, rising from 169,800 in 2013 to 425,400 in 2043.

Statistics NZ’s population statistics manager Vina Cullum, said net migration exceeded 50,000 in 2014 but was unlikely to remain at that level. 60% of Auckland’s growth would be from natural increase, the rest from migration.
She said the projections weren’t predictions, but an indication of the size & composition of the future population.

What the statisticians don’t do is project how these anticipated courses might be changed – while the death rate might be a trifle hard to adjust, policies can encourage changes in the birth rate; a rising population in Auckland, and Auckland’s population as an ever-larger share of the total, should be treated with alarm if, at the same time, many regions won’t be able to support present infrastructure, let alone upgrades.

Link: Statistics NZ, subnational population projections

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.

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Census reveals myriad details

Statistics NZ started an argument back in October over Auckland’s rate of population growth, when it released preliminary census figures, but also produced its estimates, which put the population 129,000 higher than the census night figure.

The census night & usually resident (slightly lower) figures were confirmed yesterday, when Statistics NZ released population, housing and a host of regional statistics.

The region’s census-night population rose from 1,174,806 in 2001 to 1,322,922 in 2006 and to 1,438,446 in 2013. The rate of growth fell from 2.4% during the second of those periods (which included an immigration spike in 2003-04) to 1.2% in the last 7 years.

Among the myriad things you really wanted to know about Auckland:

  • 40% of Auckland’s residents were born overseas
  • 23.1% of Auckland’s population identified themselves as Asian
  • After English, Samoan is Auckland’s most commonly spoken language, followed by Hindi & Northern Chinese
  • The number of dwellings (occupied & unoccupied) increased by nearly 34,000 (7.1%) since 2006, to reach over 500,000 in 2013; the number of unoccupied dwellings in 2013 was almost the same as in 2006 at just over 33,000
  • Auckland’s rate of home ownership has fallen to 61.5%, making it the region with the second-lowest rate of home ownership in New Zealand after Gisborne
  • The median income for people aged 15 & over in the Auckland region was $29,600 in 2013, the third-highest among all regions
  • 24.7% of people aged 15 & over in Auckland had a university degree or equivalent in 2013, compared to 19.9% in 2006
  • Auckland had the highest rate of internet access at home (81.6%), up from 65.6% in 2006.

Among the figures Auckland mayor Len Brown focused on were a comparison of the rates of ageing in Auckland versus the rest of the country, and home ownership.

“While as a nation we are ageing, the rate of ageing is slower in Auckland than the rest of New Zealand. Auckland has 7200 more children than at the last census and there are almost 300,000 children aged 14 & below living in Auckland, and more than 210,000 young people aged 15-24.

“This backs our focus on children & young people, but brings particular challenges for Auckland around education & employment.

“And while home ownership figures nationally are down, it appears that, in Auckland, apartment, townhouse & retirement living is increasing at twice the rate of standalone dwellings, reflecting an appetite for a wider range of housing choices.

“The census data will be very useful in informing our planning for the future, including the unitary plan, local board plans & major projects such as the city rail link.”

Link: Statistics NZ, 2013 census

Attribution: Statistics NZ release & tables, mayoral release.

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Statistics NZ estimates put Auckland population 129,000 above census figure

Statistics NZ has produced a second, higher population figure for Auckland – the estimates – which indicates a higher rate of growth than was shown in last week’s release of census figures.

The census-night figures showed the region’s population rose by 214,101 to 1.4 million from the 2006 census to this year’s. The growth rate halved from 2.4% in the 5-year census period to 2006 to 1.2% in the 7-year period to 2013.

Statistics NZ says the sub-national population estimates give the best available measure of the size & age-sex composition of New Zealand’s 16 regional council areas (regions) & 67 territorial authority areas, on an annual basis.

Compared to average growth rates of 28,938/year in the 5 years to the 2006 census and the decline to 15,798/year for the 2013 census period, Statistics NZ said the estimated Auckland resident population (including people who didn’t fill in the census form or were away) rose at a rate of 1.6% (an average 22,400/year) in the 6 years to June 2012, slipping to 1.4% (21,700) in the 12 months to June this year.

That has taken the estimated resident population to 1,529,300, compared to the census-night count of 1.4 million.

The estimates show natural increase accounted for 15,500 of the 22,400/year average rise in the 6 years to 2012, the balance of 6900/year coming from net immigration. In the last year, the 21,700 increase was made up of 14,700 natural increase & 7000 immigration.

Among other points in the estimates, Statistics NZ said:

  • 13 of New Zealand’s 16 regions, 39 of the 67 territorial authority areas, experienced population growth
  • Auckland accounted for 57% of New Zealand’s total population growth, Canterbury 19%
  • The five fastest-growing territorial authority areas were in the South Island.
  • Christchurch City’s population increased during 2013, following 2 years of decline.

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.

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Auckland population growth rate halved, Statistics releases local figures

Auckland’s rate of population growth halved to 1.2%/year in the 7 years since the last census, but it was still far greater than the rest of the country, except for Nelson.

Whereas Auckland’s growth rate fell from 2.4% for the 5 years to 2006, to 1.2% for the 6 years to 2013, Nelson stepped up from a 0.6% growth rate in the first period to 1.1% in the second.

Total Auckland growth fell from a 12.5% (144,690 – 28,938/year) increase in the first period to an 8.5% (110,589 – 15,798/year) increase in the second. The region’s population has risen from 1.16 million in 2001 to 1.3 million in 2006 to 1.4 million in 2013.

Statistics NZ released a national population growth figure last week – a 214,101 rise from 2006-13 – to show another electorate would be needed.

Today’s release is of the usually resident population, which Government Statistician Liz MacPherson said was typically lower than the annual population estimates because the estimates include New Zealand residents temporarily overseas at the time of the census and an adjustment for people missed by the census.

Statistics NZ will release more detailed information in December, including data on ethnicity, sex, age & dwellings.

The national growth rate also halved in the most recent census period, from 1.5%/year in 2001-06 (total 290,667 – 58,133/year) to 0.7% in 2006-13 (214,101 – 30,586/year).

For Auckland, most statistics have continued with comparisons for the old council areas. The 2013 census covers Auckland by local board area for the first time and also has populations by suburb for the 3 censuses.

The figures below show the latest census count for each Auckland board area, north to south, the increase by number & percent since the 2006 census, and the average annual growth rates of the 2001-06 & 2006-13 census periods:

Rodney, 54,879, 5520, 11.2%, 2.9% & 1.5%
Hibiscus & Bays, 89,832, 7974, 9.7%, 2.5% & 1.3%
Upper Harbour, 53,670, 10,797, 25.2%, 5.9% & 3.3%
Kaipatiki, 82,494, 3363, 4.2%, 1.3% & 0.6%
Devonport-Takapuna, 55,470, 2817, 5.4%, 1.1% & 0.7%
Henderson-Massey, 107,685, 8898, 9%, 2.6% & 1.2%
Waitakere Ranges, 48,396, 2898, 6.4%, 1.3% & 0.9%
Great Barrier, 939, 45, 5%, -3.4% & 0.7%
Waiheke, 8340, 543, 7%, 1.4% & 1%
Waitemata, 77,136, 14,208, 22.6%, 4.8% & 3%
Whau, 72,594, 3423, 4.9%, 2% & 0.7%
Albert-Eden, 94,695, 3717, 4.1%, 1.3% & 0.6%
Puketapapa, 52,938, 2133, 4.2%, 1.7% & 0.6%
Orakei, 79,536, 5016, 6.7%, 1.4% & 0.9%
Maungakiekie-Tamaki, 70,005, 3630, 5.5%, 1.2% & 0.8%
Howick, 127,125, 13,620, 12%, 4% & 1.6%
Mangere-Otahuhu, 70,959, 2808, 4.1%, 2.3% & 0.6%
Otara-Papatoetoe, 75,660, 3336, 4.6%, 1.7% & 0.6%
Manurewa, 82,242, 5052, 6.5%, 3.3% & 0.9%
Papakura, 45,633, 4074, 9.8%, 2.1% & 1.3%
Franklin, 65,322, 6720, 11.5%, 2.7% & 1.6%.

Immigrants added 23,000 people/year during the 2001-06 period, but the immigration figure dropped to 7000/year – less than one-third – in the 2006-13 period.

Statistics NZ said 47 of the 67 territorial authority areas grew in population over the last 7 years. The 3 fastest-growing in both census periods were Selwyn, up nearly a third in the latest period to 44,595, Queenstown-Lakes up 23% to 28,224, and Waimakariri up 17% to 49,989.

Link: Statistics NZ, population counts

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.

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