Archive | Migration

Reserve Bank plays unchanged game, and Peters unimpressed

The Reserve Bank left the official cashrate unchanged at 1.75% yesterday.

The bank’s acting governor, Grant Spencer, said: ‘”Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

This nudging along of economic policy doesn’t sit well with the man with the most influential say on future directions, NZ First leader Winston Peters.

Winston Peters.

While voters who believe we’re still in the era of first-past-the-post elections have been busily writing letters to editors explaining that, as National got most votes, it therefore won and should govern, Mr Peters has issued a few statements indicating likely shifts in economic direction:

  • He said the decision to hold the official cashrate at 1.75% “maintains the tone of complacency on New Zealand’s economic outlook”
  • He criticised National for taxing the NZ Superannuation Fund and not making taxpayer contributions for 10 years, and
  • 2 days before the election, he issued a statement affirming his view that the immigration level was too high, criticising the National government “for deluding the public these migrants are skilled”.

Those who see Mr Peters as a negative poser should find his advocacy for change refreshing, because all his policies of the last week have been about improving economic performance.

He issued succinct statements on what the Super Fund ought to be doing, how the Government ought to be supporting it and how international markets bloated with ultra-cheap money are riding for a fall.

Crucially, Mr Peters might change the view commonly held by Western central bankers, including New Zealand’s, that the policy of printing money to stimulate economies is flawed.

But first the Reserve Bank view, from Mr Spencer:

Grant Spencer.

“Global economic growth has continued to improve in recent quarters. However, inflation & wage outcomes remain subdued across the advanced economies and challenges remain with ongoing surplus capacity. Bond yields are low, credit spreads have narrowed and equity prices are near record levels. Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward.

“The trade-weighted exchange rate has eased slightly since the August Reserve Bank monetary policy statement. A lower $NZ would help to increase tradables inflation and deliver more balanced growth.

“GDP in the June quarter grew in line with expectations, following relative weakness in the previous 2 quarters. While exports recovered, construction was weaker than expected. Growth is projected to maintain its current pace going forward, supported by accommodative monetary policy, population growth, elevated terms of trade and fiscal stimulus.

“House price inflation continues to moderate due to loan:value ratio restrictions, affordability constraints and a tightening in credit conditions. This moderation is expected to continue, although there remains a risk of resurgence in prices given population growth & resource constraints in the construction sector.

“Annual CPI inflation eased in the June quarter, but remains within the target range. Headline inflation is likely to decline in coming quarters, reflecting volatility in tradables inflation. Non-tradables inflation remains moderate but is expected to increase gradually as capacity pressure increases, bringing headline inflation to the midpoint of the target range over the medium term. Longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at around 2%.

“Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

If you think those closing words are familiar, you’re right: they’re identical to the bank’s closing paragraph in its March statement.

Peters on Reserve Bank

Mr Peters saw less of the smoothing, more a likelihood of troubled times internationally: “Beneath the veneer of stability, large risks are lurking in the global economy. The prolonged era of ultra-cheap money has created expectations that this unprecedented period will continue forever. Fed by cheap money, share & property markets are at record levels and have a long way to fall. In particular, the US share market has had an amazing run with barely a hiccup. In China, debt levels are staggering.

“Irrational exuberance rules. It is impossible to predict when, but something will go wrong and New Zealand should be prepared.”

On the Super Fund

The NZ Super Fund reported a 20.7% return for the year on Wednesday, but Mr Peters went behind that performance to look at a gigantic loss brought about by 2 National acts: “National should apologise to New Zealanders for robbing their NZ Super nest egg,” he said.

“Taxing the NZ Superannuation Fund, and not making taxpayer contributions for 10 years is a serious economic loser.

“The magnificent 20.7% return achieved by the fund in the year to 30 June will help meet future demand for NZ Super, but the nest egg could have been so much bigger if the National government had kept its hands off it.

“In 2015, then Finance Minister Bill English said: ‘Over time, along with the other funds, it will become a more & more significant part of the economy’. That’s ironic given he started taxing it in 2014.

“NZ First would encourage the fund’s managers to invest in infrastructure in New Zealand so it works for New Zealand’s long-term interests.”

On immigration

As for the high net immigration level – 73,500 in the year to August – Mr Peters said it would ensure housing, health services & infrastructure would continue at bursting point.

“The Government deludes the public these migrants are skilled – it’s a myth, most of them are unskilled & drawn to this country in many cases by the generosity of our social services.

“Few countries in the world are as generous, or soft, as we are. Where are the new hospitals, the extra doctors & nurses, the new schools & general infrastructure to cope with all these people?

“New Zealanders find it harder to get a job with the influx from overseas. The fact is, every year we are creating a city the size of Rotorua and the country cannot handle it. Even the Prime Minister [Bill English, in a reference 2 days before the election] admits they can’t keep up with population growth.”

Earlier stories:
22 September 2017: An immigration pause – or a turning point?
6 September 2017: Updated: Reserve Bank sublets to help pay the rent
5 July 2017: Super fund explains tilting strategy
9 June 2017: Reserve Bank raises question of new debt:income loan limits
23 March 2017: Housing supply the main concern as Reserve Bank holds cashrate
30 September 2014: Super guardians pose some investment thoughts
29 September 2008: NZ Super Fund has $2 billion turnaround to $880 million loss

Attribution: Bank & Peters releases.

Continue Reading

An immigration pause – or a turning point?

The net annual inflow of migrants dropped back by 330 from July to August – not much, but 2 Australian indicators suggest it might be a turning point.

Those indicators (links below) are from Victoria, where demand for construction workers is increasing, and Western Australia, where recent minerals price shifts suggest the mining sector will soon start to pull out of its steep downturn.

Higher wages across the Tasman have long attracted Kiwis to Australia’s construction & mining sectors, and in the downturns many have come home. Prime Minister Bill English, apparently without paying attention to the unusual state of the Australian economy, expressed surprise during the election campaign at the high number of Kiwis coming home in this downturn. Mining exports collapsed.

An Australian upturn can also happen quickly. The mining sector has projects ready to proceed, waiting for a cyclical reversal of the price decline.

While the Australian economy has been badly affected by the mining downturn, it still managed a boom in house prices, helped by strong immigration and offshore speculators.

Net inflows of migrants have helped New Zealand grow, albeit at some notable costs, such as traffic congestion which has made travel in Auckland entirely unpredictable, and extreme pressure on the housing market, including extreme price support from speculators.

There is now an expectation, no matter who wins government in this election, that more houses will be built to meet population growth, especially in Auckland, and that much of the building sector workforce may have to be imported. That ignores other population & work flows, especially to Australia.

The Kiwi flow

The global financial crisis started to get underway in late 2007, and was severe for New Zealand through to 2011. Australia, unusually, stayed in a recession for another 5 years.

New Zealanders didn’t worry too much about all that for several years, as Kiwi emigrant numbers stayed above 40,000/year through to 2013, getting above 62,000 for the August 2013 year. For the last 4 years, however, the outward flow has fallen below 40,000/year.

Most of that flow has been to Australia, above 50,000 in some 12-month periods 4 to 5 years ago, dwindling to a trickle in some recent months. In August years, the net outflow of NZ citizens to Australia from 2007-14 totalled 215,000, but in the last 3 years totalled only 14,000.

Looking at trends

Statistics NZ’s migration figures for August show a net inflow for the month of 5120, down from 5450 last year, and a net inflow for the year of 72,072, up from 69,119 for the previous 12 months but down by 330 from the 72,402 in the 12 months to July.

Long-term migrant arrivals tend to drop off slightly from July to August and they’ve done that again this year, though the inflow this July made it over the 10,000 mark (to 10,014) after nudging it in the previous 2 Augusts (9950 last year, 9942 2 years ago).

Exits had been in the range of 4500-4600 over the last 3 Augusts, but jumped to 4894 this time.

In annual terms, from a low point in the August 2010 year of 82,106 arrivals, the number climbed in large jumps over the last 5 years – over 90,000 in 2013, then to almost 104,000, to almost 118,000, to 125,000 and this year to 132,153.

Exits exceeded 87,000 in 2012, then dropped in the next 4 years to 77,500, 60,400, 57,600 & 55,900, but have jumped in the last 12 months to 60,081.

The net results have been a big turnaround from an outflow of 4118 in the August 2012 year to inflows of 12,800, 43,500, 60,300, 69,100, and this year to 72,072 – a net gain of 257,812 in 5 years.

About 25,000 migrants have arrived from Australia in each of the last 3 years, 1900/August month in the first 2 of those years, dropping to 1703 this August. Exits have closely matched those numbers, so in the last 3 August years there was a net outflow of 529 Australia followed by net inflows of 1759 & 226.

The annual net inflow from Asia fell from 36,124 last year to 32,750 this year, including 9859 (10,029 last year) from China, 7278 (10,631) from India (down because of student visa changes), 4649 (4907) from the Philippines.

The net inflow from Europe rose from 14,021 to 16,956 – 3100-3400 each year from both France & Germany, the UK up from 4588 to 6725.

Net US numbers for the year rose from 1199 to 1983, and South Africa from 3415 to 4931.

Into Auckland

The number of immigrants citing Auckland as their destination has continued to grow – 4683 in August (4430), 59,700 for the August year (53,365). Over the 3 years, exits from Auckland have been in the range of 21-23,000.

The net inflow to Auckland rose marginally this August to 2754 (2711), but has climbed annually to 36,796 (32,187 last year, 27,862 the year before).

The bald statistics:

Net migrant inflow August: 5120 (5450 in August last year)
Net migrant inflow August year: 72,072 (69,119; 72,402 in the 12 months to this July)
Migrants into Auckland in August: 4683 (4430)
Migrants into Auckland in August year: 59,700 (53,365)
Net Auckland inflow in August: 2754 (2711)
Net Auckland inflow in August year: 36,796 (32,187)
Net outflow to Australia in August: 330 (22 inflow)
Net outflow to Australia in August year: 1464 (2588).

Links:
The West Australian, 16 September 2017: Boom in jobs as resources takes off
Sydney Morning Herald, 16 September 2017: Lack of tradies causes two-year home building delay

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables.

Continue Reading

Migration – quick numbers

Below are the basic migration numbers for the month of August & 12 months to August. I’ll fill in some gaps this afternoon with a longer story, including a few inputs likely to change the trend.

The bald statistics:

Net migrant inflow August: 5120 (5450 in August last year)
Net migrant inflow August year: 72,072 (69,119; 72,402 in the 12 months to this July)
Migrants into Auckland in August: 4683 (4430)
Migrants into Auckland in August year: 59,700 (53,365)
Net Auckland inflow in August: 2754 (2711)
Net Auckland inflow in August year: 36,796 (32,187).
Net outflow to Australia in August: 330 (22 inflow)
Net outflow to Australia in August year: 1464 (2588).

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.

 

Continue Reading

Migrant inflow edges up, big flow into Auckland

New Zealand’s net inflow of migrants clicked up another notch last month as the immigrant number jumped over 12,000 and the net for the year rose by 97 from June to 72,402 for the 12 months to July.

One figure in the equation has been fairly static: emigration has been running at about 5000/month, though it edged up above 5800 this July.

On the other side of the ledger, more immigrants arrive in July than in June, and those July arrivals have ramped up in the last 4 years, exceeding 10,000 in 2014, 11,000 in each of the next 2 years and reaching 12,390 last month, compared to 5843 exits.

The net inflow has been around 6500 for each of the last 3 Julys, 6547 this time.

There was still a net inflow from Australia for the year, but not for the month – a net outflow of 11 for the month (1866 arriving, 18877 leaving) and a net inflow of 469 for the year (25,428 in, 24,959 out).

The net inflow from India was well down for the year – 9267 in (12,508 last year), 1823 out (1195) for a net inflow of 7444 (11,313).

The net inflow from China for the year was 9961 (10,110) – 12,276 in (12,220), 2315 out (2110).

From the UK, the net inflow rose by 2366 to 6750 (4384) – 15,216 in (13,624), 8466 out (9240).

New Zealanders are still heading overseas, albeit the net outflow has shrunk. The July outflow has been around 2900 for 4 years (2949 this time) and the inflow was around 2300 for 3 years, but rose to 2604 this July. The net outflow for the month was 345 (517).

The net outflow of Kiwis for the last 6 years has been: 39,682 in the 12 months to July 2012, the, 29,932 in 2013, 11,004 in 2014, 5597 in 2015, 3069 in 2016 and 1112 this year.

Auckland migration

Migrant arrivals into Auckland were up in July at 5440 (5069), and by 6234 for the year to 59,447 (53,213). The net inflow into Auckland for the last 3 July years has risen from 27,395 to 31,951 to 36,753 (up by a net 4802 in the last 12 months).

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables.

Continue Reading

Immigrants drive 2%/year population growth, 10-14yos decline

New Zealand’s population grew by over 2% in each of the last 2 June years, and by a record 100,400 in the last 12 months.

Over the last 5 years, the population grew by nearly 390,000 – exceeding the population of Christchurch.

At 30 June, Statistics NZ estimated the resident population at 4.79 million. By tonight, it exceeded 4.8 million – 4,805,505 on the Statistics NZ population clock as I write.

Over the last 4 years the natural increase has been under 30,000/year, compared to annual increases up to 36,200 during the previous 7 years.

The migrant figure went negative in the June 2012 year – 3200 more people leaving than arriving – but in the last 4 years the net migrant inflow has totalled 238,000, of whom 72,300 have arrived in the last 12 months.

Statistics NZ said the current gain from net migration equated to 15 people:1000 population. Population statistics senior manager Peter Dolan said much higher net migration rates were experienced in the late 1870s, and similar rates to today were also experienced in the early 1900s & early 2000s.

“Our current net migration rate is high by New Zealand standards, but historically it has fluctuated more than other countries. At the moment we’re experiencing rates similar to Australia’s in 2009.

“Most migrants are arriving on short-term work & student visas. However, many of them extend their visas, or transition to other visa types including residence visas. It makes sense to count long-term stayers as part of our population, rather than as short-term visitors.”

Mr Dolan said half of last year’s growth was in the 15–39 age group: “This reflects the contribution of migration to our population growth, with net migration of 50,000 among those aged 15–39 years.”

As a result of recent migration flows, the share of New Zealand’s population aged 15–39 years rose from 33% in 2013 to 34% in 2017. This was a reversal of the trend that saw that bracket’s share drop from 41% in the mid-1980s.

Growth of the broad 65+ age group has continued to accelerate, up 25,000 in the last year, as the large birth cohorts of the 1950s-early 1970s begin to reach those ages.

The population at the oldest ages is also growing, reflecting decreasing death rates at all ages over a long period of time. The 90+ population is now 30,000, compared with 20,000 in 2007. It’s projected to reach 40,000 in the late 2020s and 50,000 in the early 2030s.

One group that has increased more slowly is the under 5s – up by just 800 in the last year and by 12,720 over 10 years. The 10-14 age group’s numbers rose in the last year, but both the last 2 years were lower than 10 years ago – 306,380 in 2007, 294,330 last year, 301,360 this year.

Link, and links to graphs:
National population estimates at 30 June 2017

Attribution: Statistics NZ release & tables.

Continue Reading

Half the record net migrant inflow is into Auckland

The net inflow of migrants continued to rise in June, reaching a record 72,305 for the June year – and 50% of that total was into Auckland.

Immigrants giving Auckland as their destination rose by 6142 to 59,076 for the 12 months, rising from 42.3% to 45% of all immigrants. The number not giving a final destination fell from 21,244 (17%) to 18,840 (14.3%).

The meteoric rise in net immigration over the last 5 years – from a net outflow of 3191 in the June 2012 year – has resulted from a combination of rising immigrant numbers and declining emigrant numbers. But in the last 12 months that picture has changed slightly.

For June, the number of immigrants was up by 950 to 9158, continuing a steady rise since 2010. On the departures side of the ledger, emigrants dropped to 4534 last June but rose to 5145 last month.

For the June year, arrivals rose from 82,305 in 2010 to 131,355 in the last 12 months, with big jumps in 2014-216, slipping back to a rise of 6300 in the last months. Departures declined from 87,593 in the June 2012 year to 55,965 in the June 2016 year, but bumped up to 59,050 in the last 12 months.

For Auckland, the net inflow in June was 2106 (1726 & 1571 in the previous 2 years). For the June year, the net inflow rose from 26,834 to 31,778 to 36,650 – 50.7% of the total net inflow.

The number of immigrants from Australia dropped slightly for both month & year – by 70 for the month to 1612, and by 262 for the year to 25,441.

Exits to Australia rose for both month & year – by 160 to 1781 for the month, and by 1111 to 24,881 for the year. The net gain shrank from 1933 to 560 for the year.

Other major immigrant sources for the year were China with a net inflow of 10,351 (9688 the previous year), India 7409 (12,118, down chiefly because student visa numbers declined), the Philippines 4646 (5010), the UK 6728 (4138) & South Africa 4867 (3054).

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.

Continue Reading

The migration debate: Which way forward?

Statistics NZ will publish the monthly migration figures this Friday and, on recent trends, the net inflow is likely to be just over 72,000/year. The Labour Party believes it can cut that by 20-30,000/year by enforcing rules more tightly.

Gareth Kiernan.

On Friday, economist Gareth Kiernan warned that cutting the number sharply could cause a slump. Mr Kiernan’s premise seemed to be that more migrants were needed to service the needs of more migrants, and that cutting the number of migrants would take away the workforce needed to service those extra migrants.

His second point was not about migrants but about the behaviour of the Reserve Bank. His slump would arise not so much from cutting immigration but from the central bank ignoring changes in the economy and raising interest rates anyway, thus harming the economy.

All political parties agree that immigrants should add to New Zealand, not detract, and the Government’s critics take that a step further, saying the direction “export education” has taken, toward low-level learning & backdoor entry to permanent residency status, should therefore be curtailed.

Who builds our houses?

The first irony in New Zealand’s immigration debate is that many of the companies building much-needed houses in Auckland are owned by immigrants, often with investor support in Hong Kong or China.

You could say that, without so many immigrants from Asia, the input of these Chinese builders wouldn’t be needed. However, 2 of New Zealand’s biggest housing companies through decades, Universal & Neil, have been Asia-owned for years. A third, GJ Gardner, is an Australian franchise. Would New Zealand have built as many houses as it has in recent years without that foreign input?

How to get voters to switch – or not

The second irony is that, since 1972, no party (or party in coalition) has held power beyond 3 consecutive terms, but Labour & the Greens appear determined to hand National a fourth term because they haven’t enunciated policies which will pull voters to them from outside their bases.

As I was writing this, a new campaign call for support arrived in my inbox from the Greens. In the middle of its worthy aspirations was this sentence: “To do this, we need to you.”

We all make mistakes, but I read that puzzling sentence shortly after trying to wade through the party’s verbiage on migration, which read more like a call to support refugees and close the door to people the party doesn’t like, notably rich people.

Under policy point 5, Selecting voluntary migrants, I took greatest delight in point 4, which followed a statement that “people shouldn’t be able just to buy their way into Aotearoa”:

  1. Tighten up on scams in which overseas millionaires buy up NZ property by making business-development promises that they don’t keep. We will do this by
  2. Using a 3-year provisional visa for investor migrants
  3. Undertaking annual audits of investor migrants’ businesses via extended case management, paid for by the business being audited
  4. Ensuring that the audits include checks for viability, sustainability & desirability and are undertaken by immigration officials, an accountant & a marketing consultant. These audits, prepared independently, together with a police report & any complaints, will form the basis of the decision.

I’ve always found the chip-on-shoulder view of life is as distorted as the silver spoon version, and bludgeoning aspiring Kiwis with this vengeful kind of red tape doesn’t seem a good way to make friends.

Labour acknowledges migrant heritage, but…

The Labour Party acknowledges New Zealand’s immigrant heritage in its policy, but says National, in its 9 years heading the Government, “has failed to make the necessary investments in housing, infrastructure & public services that are needed to cope with rapid population growth. This has contributed to the housing crisis, put pressure on hospitals & schools, and added to the congestion on roads.”

Labour, in government, had an immigrant spike in 2003-04 – unannounced, unmanaged and, because local councils had no warning of the influx, they weren’t prepared to cope with it. The economic boost helped the party get re-elected in 2005. National’s spike of the last 3 years has gone for longer, but both have left large infrastructure deficits and speculation-promoting price escalation as direct consequences.

Labour reckons it can cut net immigration by 20-30,000/year.

That’s going to happen anyway as soon as Australia gets back on to what had been assumed to be a never-ending economic growth path, so the immigration cut in New Zealand could go deeper, reducing the net inflow to 10-20,000/year.

Australians thought wrecking the economy was beyond the ability of any politician, but finally they found a couple who could do it. However, the mining sector is looking more positive by the day and “the lucky country” will soon be just that again, and thereby thoroughly inviting to thousands of New Zealand tradesmen.

When those tradesmen start to head west again, New Zealand will once more be left pondering how to fill the gaps. Kneejerk responses aren’t an effective alternative to sound long-term policies, but kneejerk is where the migration debate has headed.

GST sharing rebuff was an opportunity missed

The National government’s unwillingness to share gst windfalls from the rise in tourist numbers made it plain that the governing party’s floundering was exasperating business people around the country; an opposing party that offered a raft of constructive new economic policies incorporating changes to tax distribution could have lifted its vote immensely.

Slump talk

Mr Kiernan, Infometrics’ chief forecaster, thrust his tuppence-worth into this policy abyss on Friday, when the economic forecasting company’s latest predictions indicated gdp growth would slip below 2%/year this year – before any further help downward from politicians slashing migration.

The threatened migration clampdown would lead to an economic slump, he wrote, adding: “New Zealand’s economic growth is being constrained by shortages of labour in key areas, and this problem will become more widespread if there is a significant & rapid tightening in migration policy following this year’s election”.

Slower near-term growth in construction activity & household spending would cut growth, he said.

“Although growth is forecast to rebound during 2018, that pick-up is contingent on the continued supply of labour provided by foreign migrants coming to New Zealand for work, on which businesses have become increasingly dependent.

“High levels of immigration have undoubtedly contributed to stresses around infrastructure & the housing market, particularly in Auckland. But employment growth of more than 1%/quarter over the last 18 months demonstrates the need for workers across the economy.

“Without these inflows of foreign workers & returning New Zealanders, businesses would have struggled to meet growing demand, and cost pressures would be even more intense in areas such as the construction & tourism sectors.”

Mr Kiernan’s warning invites the question: If the number of immigrants falls, so too will demand, and the economy should become more manageable, supposedly enabling a catch-up in the supply of infrastructure & houses. A slowdown, yes, but a damaging slump?

Mr Kiernan said cutting immigration this year would have negative repercussions for economic growth during 2018 & 2019, constraining activity through higher labour costs: “The inflationary risks associated with these cost pressures would also be likely to compel the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates sooner than would otherwise be the case.

“Given the slowdown already occurring in sales activity & house price growth, this potential cocktail of rising interest rates mixed with a government clampdown on migration would be lethal.

“Even with modest increases in interest rates from mid-2018, medium-term growth in household spending will be constrained by high debt levels, which have climbed from 146% to a record high of 167% since 2012.

“Faster lifts in mortgage rates & debt-servicing costs would threaten a jump in forced house sales, hastening a correction in the housing market and hammering consumer confidence.”

Those supposed consequences look like consequences of not adjusting policy to match changed conditions.

Mr Kiernan said the surge in migration over the last 4 years could have been more carefully managed, thereby preventing the housing market imbalances from becoming so critical. But, although he expected net immigration to gradually ease over the next 5 years, “a cautious approach is needed to avoid replacing one lot of problems in the economy with a completely new set. Ultimately, high migration levels are a positive reflection on New Zealand’s economic performance. We’ve been able to attract & retain workers in this country because our growth over recent years has outpaced that in other developed economies.”

Not quite true. A high proportion of immigrants have been low-level students-come-menial workers who have held bottom-rung wages down. At the same time they have increased demand for services, and for housing.

While I’ve said Labour hasn’t enunciated policies that would pull voters from other parties, elaborating on how a reduction in immigration would be done – and what it would achieve for other groups – would rebalance the political scales.

Links to party immigration policies:
Act
Greens
Labour
NZ First
TOP (The Opportunities Party)
Infometrics

Attribution: Infometrics release, party policies.

Continue Reading

Net migrant inflow just short of 72,000/year

The net inflow of migrants dropped slightly from April to May and fell 36 short of 72,000 for the year to May, according to Statistics NZ’s monthly figures released yesterday.

Statistics NZ also released a study yesterday of migrants from other countries using the easier entry to New Zealand as a backdoor way of getting into Australia (link below). That flow spiked in 2001, when Australia changed its welfare rules, and has fluctuated since.

The present rise in net immigration began in 2014 and the net inflow has doubled since then.

The annual net inflow hit 71,885 in April and rose to 71,964 in May, but the net inflow for the month of 3117 was down from April’s 3406.

Compared to last year’s figures, the monthly net inflow was up by 79 on last year and up by 3532 on the previous year.

The number of migrants arriving on student visas has dropped by 4000 to 23,700 for the year, principally affecting migration from India, which dropped by a net 4681. Net immigration from the UK jumped by 2592 to 6534 for the year, and from South Africa by 1801 to 4729. The net inflow from China was up by 551 to 10,218 for the year.

Net migration into Auckland for the month was 1899 (1493 last May), and for the year 36,270 (31,623).

Link:
Statistics NZ paper, 22 June 2017: Backdoor entry to Australia

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.

Continue Reading

Migrant tide turning?

You could sense an almost imperceptible turning of the tide: the net inflow of migrants slipped by 47 for the year in the rolling 12-month count released by Statistics NZ on Friday.

After 3 years of substantial rises every April from a negative 28 in 2013 to a gain of 2424 and up by 500 more in each of the next 2 years, the flow stopped.

The change occurred in Auckland too – up another 1788 in April, but that was only 92 more than in April last year; the previous April the rise had been by 352. Auckland was up another 4282 over 12 months to a net inflow of 35,864, but that annual growth was down from 5476 the previous year.

It becomes a political question: the Government has 3-plus years of economic growth from the migrant tide in the bag, and that growth will continue. And although the Government’s not the dictator of personal travel preferences, will an easing of the inflow in the 4 months to the election change public perceptions that record immigration has been a highly negative influence?

The immigrant flow rose again, as it’s done every April since 2012, this time by 261 to 8637. The emigrant flow had been decreasing, but this April it rose by 308 to 5231.

The immigrant flow for the year rose by 5110 to 129,779 – that’s over 45,000/year more than in each of the 3 years 2010-12, and a 3-year supply in 2 years. On the other side of the equation, emigration peaked at 87,813 in 2012 and slumped to about 57,000 over the last 3 years. In the latest 12 months, it was 57,894, up by 1325 on the previous year.

The net inflow in April was 3406 (3453 the previous April), and the net inflow for the year was 71,885 (68,110 the previous year).

Australia & the 5 big inflows

Exits to Australia peaked at 53,904 in the August 2012 year, and the net outflow was running at around 40,000 in that period. Now the flow each way is about 24-25,000 – in the latest 12 months, 24,680 out & 25,460 in for a net gain of 780, down from 1721 the previous year.

The other 5 big net inflows are from China, India, the Philippines, the UK & South Africa.

For the 12 months to April, the net inflow from China was up at 10,225 (9615 the previous period), India’s was sharply down at 7792 (12,218), the Philippines was down at 4532 (5151), the UK was well up at 6439 (3891) and South Africa was also well up at 4749 (2730).

NZ citizen moves

The net outflow of NZ citizens was up in April compared to the 2 previous years, but nowadays you’re looking at very small numbers – 1025 in April (2067 in, 3092 out; the net outflows the previous 2 years were 960 & 969). For the year, the net outflow continued to slide, dropping from 3560 to 1406. In 2012 that outflow was a net 39,491; it dropped by 5000, then 20,000, in the next 2 years.

The annual inflow of non-citizens, at 97,810 in the last 12 months, was 36,000 more than in 2012. 24,519 non-citizens departed, the highest annual figure since 25,825 left in 2012. Net immigrant numbers have grown from a low of 32,416 in the April 2010 year to 73,291 in the latest 12 months.

For Auckland, arrivals have been up by 5000 in each of the last 2 years, rising from 47,868 to 52,870 to 57,885. Departures have been stable in a range 21,288-22,021. The net inflows to Auckland over those 3 years were 26,106, 31,582 & 35,864.

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables.

Continue Reading

Net migrant inflow tops 71,900 for year

New Zealand’s net migrant inflow jumped again in March to a new record of 71,932 over 12 months.

That’s 6.4% (4300) ahead of the net inflow in the previous 12 months.

The net inflow in March has exceeded 4000 for the last 3 years, and this time round the number jumped by 600 – 14% – to 4878.

The number of migrants coming into Auckland jumped by 13% in March, from 4194 a year ago to 5267, and by 10% for the year, from 52,443 to 57,710.

The net inflow to Auckland is up 14.5% over 12 months, from 31,230 to 35,772.

That means 49.73% of the whole net inflow over the last year has made Auckland the destination.

Statistics NZ said migrant arrivals in the last 12 months, 129,518, were a record, while departures were up by 1100 over the previous year to 57,586 after 4 years of declines.

Continue Reading
WordPress Appliance - Powered by TurnKey Linux