Archive | Inflation

CPI jumps to 1.3%/year

Inflation made it to 1%/year in the December quarter, the first time the consumers price index (CPI) has made it over 0.4%/year since December 2014 and the highest inflation rate since the 1.6%/year in the June 2014 quarter.

The index rose 0.4% from the September quarter to the December quarter, and 0.7% seasonally adjusted.

The index has been marginally higher in the last year – 4 straight quarterly rises after 3 falls in the previous 5 quarters.

Statistics NZ said, for the quarter:

  • Transport prices rose 3.7%, influenced by higher petrol & air transport prices
  • Housing-related prices rose – the purchase of new housing, excluding land, was up 1.4%
  • Vegetable prices fell 15% (up 3.0% after seasonal adjustment).

And on annual change:

  • Housing & household utilities increased 3.3%
  • Transport prices decreased 1.0%
  • Tradeable prices decreased 0.1%, while prices for non-tradeables increased 2.4%.

Average prices:

  • The average price of 1 litre of 91 octane petrol was $1.82 in the December quarter, up from $1.75 in the September quarter.

The CPI measures the rate of price change of goods & services purchased by New Zealand households. Statistics NZ visits 2800 shops around New Zealand to collect prices for the CPI and check product sizes & features.

Statistics NZ prices senior manager Jason Attewell said today: “Household price inflation is up from a historical low of 0.1% for the December 2015 year. Non-tradeable goods & services showed a 2.4% increase, influenced by housing-related price increases.

“Housing-related prices continued to increase, up 3.3% in the December 2016 year. Prices increased for newly built houses excluding land (up 6.5%) and for housing rentals (up 2.0%).

“Housing-related prices in Auckland increased more than the national average, with new houses up 8.2% and rents up 3.2% from a year earlier.”

Attribution: Statistics NZ.

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CPI slips again

Statistics NZ said yesterday the consumers price index (CPI) inflation rate was 0.2% in the September quarter, down from 0.4% in the June quarter.

Consumer prices manager Matt Haigh said lower transport prices countered higher housing-related prices: “Housing & household utilities prices rose 1.1% in the September quarter. This rise was influenced by higher prices for purchase of new housing, excluding land (up 2.0%), and local authority rates (up 3.0%).

Transport prices were down 3.0%. Petrol prices fell 1.7%, with the average price of a litre of 91 octane petrol at $1.75. Prices for new & used cars also fell.

The latest quarterly figures took annual CPI inflation to 0.2%. It’s been under 1% for 2 years and under 10% for all but 5 quarters of the last 4 years.

Mr Haigh said housing-related prices continued to be the main upward contributor, up 3.2% in the year. This increase was influenced by higher prices for purchase of new housing, excluding land (up 6.3%), and rentals for housing (up 2.1%). Property maintenance prices, such as painting & plumbing, have also increased steadily throughout the year and are now 3.1% higher than a year ago.

Transport prices made the largest downward contribution for the year, down 6.7% as prices for petrol & vehicle relicensing fell.

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.

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CPI down for quarter, up 0.1% over year

The consumers price index (CPI) fell 0.5% in the December quarter and increased by only 0.1% over the year.

Statistics NZ said yesterday the index often fell from the September quarter due to seasonally lower vegetable prices & seasonal discounting, but this was the largest quarterly fall since December 2008. After adjusting for seasonal effects, the CPI fell 0.2%.

The 0.1% annual shift followed 2 quarters of 0.4% annual movements and a 0.3% rise in the March quarter. Statistics NZ said the previous smallest annual movement was a 0.5% fall in the year to the September 1999 quarter.

The largest downward contribution for the year was an 8.1% fall in petrol prices. Excluding petrol, the CPI showed a 0.5% increase for the year. The small movement for the year was also influenced by both lower vehicle relicensing fees & international air fares.

Housing & household utility prices rose 2.8%, housing rentals 2.5%, newly built houses excluding land 5%, local authority rates 6.2%. In Auckland, new houses rose 7.2%, rents 3.3%.

For the December quarter compared to the September quarter, Statistics NZ consumer prices manager Matt Haigh said lower prices for petrol & vegetables were partly countered by higher prices for housing-related costs & airfares.

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.

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Auckland housing costs push CPI higher

The consumers price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in the June quarter after falling 0.3% in the March quarter & 0.2% in December. Statistics NZ said yesterday the annual increase was 0.3%, up from 0.1% in March.

Rises in housing costs in Auckland were well above the national level.

Statistics NZ prices manager Chris Pike said the main impact came from higher petrol prices, which were up 8.8% in the June quarter: “Without petrol, the CPI was flat for the quarter.”

Prices for the housing & household utilities group rose 0.7% for the quarter. Prices for newly built houses excluding land were up 1.5% nationally (2.8% in Auckland, 0.7% in Canterbury). Housing rental prices rose 0.6% (Auckland up 0.8%, Canterbury 0.7%).

The prices of tradable goods & services (which face foreign competition) fell 2% over the year, and non-tradable goods & services rose 2%, the smallest annual increase since the December 2001 quarter.

Housing & household utility prices were up 2.5% in the year – newly built houses excluding land up 5.3% nationally, but up 7.6% in Auckland & 3.5% in Canterbury; housing rentals up 2.3%, but up 2.9% in Auckland & 3.5% in Canterbury; and local authority rates up 3.9% nationally.

Attribution: Statistics NZ release.

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Reserve Bank aims to lift inflation

Assistant Reserve Bank governor John McDermott said yesterday monetary policy would remain stimulatory to support output growth above potential, to help lift inflation back to the bank’s target range of 1-3%.

He said the near-zero inflation New Zealand is seeing is mostly due to low tradables inflation, caused by the slow global economic recovery, the high exchange rate and the recent sharp falls in oil prices.

He told the Waikato Chamber of Commerce & Industry and Waikato branch of the Institute of Directors in Hamilton: “There is little monetary policy can to do influence inflation outturns in the near term.

“The impact of some factors influencing headline inflation will prove temporary. Past declines in oil prices will reduce headline inflation substantially in 2015 but, if there are no further falls, then this negative contribution will drop out of the annual inflation rate by the start of next year.

“Our approach, as a flexible inflation targeter, is to support ongoing sustainable growth in New Zealand. Growth is currently underpinned by high net immigration, strong employment & construction activity and robust household spending.

“At present, the bank is not considering any increase in interest rates. Before considering any tightening in monetary policy we would need to be confident that increased capacity utilisation & labour market tightness was generating, or about to generate, a substantial increase in inflation.

“Evidence of weakening demand & domestic inflationary pressures would prompt us to consider lowering interest rates. There are some areas of uncertainty surrounding the outlook for capacity pressures, including the lingering effects of the recent drought in parts of the country, fiscal consolidation, lower dairy incomes and the impact of the exchange rate on export & import substitution industries.

“Beyond these factors, we are also assessing the outlook for tradables inflation that is being dampened by global conditions & the high exchange rate. The fact that the exchange rate has appreciated while our key export prices, such as dairy, have been falling, is unwelcome.”

Dr McDermott said this cycle was unusual in that CPI inflation was staying very low, requiring interest rates to also remain low. The timing of future adjustments in interest rates will depend on the evolution of inflationary pressures in both the traded & non-traded sectors.

Link: McDermott speech, The dragon slain? Near-zero inflation in NZ

Attribution: Bank release.

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Propbd on Q Th23Apr15 (2) – Leckie moves, migration inflow up again, bank to induce inflation, auction results

Leckie quits Colliers
Migrant inflow continues to soar
Reserve Bank aims to lift inflation
3 sell at Ray White auction

This is the second page of Propbd on Q for Thursday 23 April.

Leckie quits Colliers

Longtime Colliers Wellington agent Bill Leckie will move to CBRE at the beginning of May as senior director in the capital markets team. Mr Leckie ran international sales for Colliers in Wellington for many years and was joint managing director of the agency’s Wellington office for 8 years.

Migrant inflow continues to soar

The net migrant inflow continued to rise in March – a net 4051 for the month and the annual net inflow rising from 55,121 to 56,275. Immigration for the month rose to 9561 while emigration was steady at 5510.

The departure rate fell by 8500 to 57,514 for the year, while the arrivals rate climbed by 16,000 to 113,789, so the net annual inflow has reached an astonishing 97.85% of departures. That’s a rise from a net inflow of 31,914 in the March 2013 year, when the escalation was well under way, but that figure represented only 48.3% of departures.

Reserve Bank aims to lift inflation

Assistant Governor Dr John McDermott said today monetary policy would remain stimulatory to support output growth above potential, to help lift inflation back to the bank’s target range of 1-3%.

3 sell at Ray White auction

3 of the 5 apartments taken to auction at Ray white City Apartments today were sold under the hammer. Auction results:

Bankside Waldorf, 8 Bankside St, unit 8E, sold for $230,000, sales agents May Ma & Mark Li
Columbia, 15 Whitaker Place, unit 7A, sold for $140,000 + gst, Victor Liu
The Cambridge, 32 Anzac Avenue, unit 103, passed in at vendor bid of $400,000, Gillian Gibson
The Quadrant, 10 Waterlo Quadrant, unit 1701, sold for $350,000, My Ma & Mark Li
H47, 47 Hobson St, unit 810, passed in at $325,000, May Ma & Mark Li

Attribution: Statistics NZ, CBRE, Reserve Bank, auction.

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Inflation falls to just 0.1%

CPI (the consumers price index) fell for the second consecutive quarter in March, the first time it’s done that since March 1999. In those 2 steps, the annual inflation rate has dropped to just 0.1%.

Falling petrol prices were the cause but, by the end of the March quarter, petrol prices had risen slightly.

CPI fell 0.2% in the December quarter and 0.3% in the March quarter, after 3 quarters of 0.3% rises. On an annual basis, the inflation rate fell from 1.6% in the December 2013 & June 2014 quarters and 1.5% in between, to 1% in September, 0.8% in December and now 0.1%.

Statistics NZ prices manager Chris Pike said today the quarterly fall in petrol prices was 11% and, without that, CPI would have been up 0.3%.

An 11% rise in excise duty in January lifted cigarette & tobacco prices by 12% in the March quarter as the average price for a pack of 25 cigarettes rose from $23.30 to $26.40.

Housing rents rose in Auckland & nationally by 0.8%, but rose by 1.2% in Canterbury

Housing rentals rose 0.8%, with Canterbury up 1.2% and Auckland up 0.8%. Prices for newly built houses excluding land rose 0.7% in Auckland, 0.8% nationally.

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.

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CPI down for quarter, still up for year

The consumers price index (CPI) fell 0.2% in the December quarter, following 3 consecutive rises of 0.3%.

That fall is likely to widen talk of New Zealand suffering from deflation, but Statistics NZ said today the CPI often falls in December quarters.

Prices manager Chris Pike said: “Lower prices for petrol & vegetables were partly countered by higher prices for international travel & housing-related costs.”

Petrol prices (down 5.7%) made the largest downward contribution. Excluding petrol, the CPI showed a 0.1% rise this quarter. The average price of a litre of 91 octane petrol in the December quarter was $2.00, compared with $2.12 in the previous quarter. By the end of the December quarter, petrol pump prices were 7% below the average price for the quarter, and as at 16 January were 17% below the average for the quarter.

Prices for newly built houses excluding land rose 1.7% overall, with Auckland up 2.8% and Canterbury up 1.7%. Housing rentals rose 0.3% overall, with Canterbury up 0.9%.

The CPI increased 0.8% in the year to the December quarter, the smallest annual rise since the June 2013 quarter.

Housing & household utilities were the main contributor in the latest year, as newly built houses (up 5.4%), housing rentals (up 2.1%) & electricity (up 3.6%) all increased in price.

Attribution: Statistics NZ release.

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Annual CPI rise slips to 1%

Published 23 October 2014
The consumers price index rose 0.3% in the September quarter, and just 1% for the year to September.

The quarterly rise was the third consecutive 0.3% increase. The annual CPI shift, however, has taken the index from 1.5% for the March year to 1.6% in June, down to 1% in the latest calculations.

Statistics NZ prices manager Chris Pike said today: “Higher housing-related prices were responsible for about three-quarters of the rise in the CPI this quarter. The rest of the basket was relatively subdued.”

Prices for housing & household utilities rose 1.0%, reflecting higher local authority rates (up 3.8%), housing rentals (up 0.6%) & newly built houses (up 1.1%). Local authorities set their rates annually, and these are mainly shown in the September quarter CPI.

Lower prices for household contents & services (down 1.3%) reflected falls for textiles, furniture & whiteware. Communication also fell (down 1.4%), reflecting better-value telecommunication services (down 1.1%) & cheaper telecommunication equipment, mainly cellphone handsets (down 7.5%).

Transport prices were up 0.1%, with higher petrol prices (up 1.0%) & international air fares (up 1.4%) countered by cars (down 1.0%) & warrants of fitness. Fewer cars now require a six-month warrant of fitness, which has been shown as a price fall in the CPI.

Housing & household utilities was the main contributor to the annual index rise as housing rentals (up 2.2%), newly built houses (up 4.8%) & electricity (up 3.7%) all increased in price.

Audio-visual & computing equipment (down 9.8%) was the main downward contributor, and petrol prices were 1.8% lower than they were this time last year.

Mr Pike said Statistics NZ calculated the September quarter CPI using an updated basket of goods & services and updated expenditure weights as part of a 3-yearly review. “We are now using retail transaction data (scanner data) to measure price change for consumer electronic goods, which is a world first,” he said.

Attribution: Statistics NZ release.

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Statistics NZ to produce more household group inflation indexes

Statistics NZ said on Monday it would produce 8 new indexes to give greater insight into inflation affecting different household groups.

The suite of household living costs price indexes for 4 household groups – beneficiaries, income groups (quintiles), Maori & superannuitants – will be published by early 2016.

Government Statistician Liz MacPherson said Statistics NZ would also produce seasonally adjusted analytical CPI series by the June 2015 quarter.

The decisions are in response to recommendations an independent CPI advisory committee made.

Statistics NZ will fund them by reducing, from 15 to 12, the number of regional centres CPI prices are collected from. “We stopped collecting prices in Rotorua, Wanganui & Timaru on 1 July. Price change for these regions will be directly represented by Tauranga, Palmerston North & Christchurch.

“The CPI advisory committee recognised that a trade-off could be made that would allow these CPI-related initiatives, without compromising the quality of the national CPI or the range of regional CPIs. Some of the cost savings will also go towards making greater use of ‘big data’ (eg, retail transaction or scanner data) to measure price change in the CPI.

Link: Decision on 2013 CPI Advisory Committee recommendations

Attribution: Statistics NZ release.

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