Archive | Economy

Reserve Bank holds cashrate, warns of Government policy uncertainties

The Reserve Bank left the official cashrate unchanged at 1.75% today. Alongside that certainty, bank governor Grant Spencer said the impact of policies of the new government were uncertain.

Bank governor Grant Spencer said: “Global economic growth continues to improve, although inflation & wage outcomes remain subdued. Commodity prices are relatively stable. Bond yields & credit spreads remain low and equity prices are near record levels. Monetary policy remains easy in the advanced economies but is gradually becoming less stimulatory.

The exchange rate has eased since the August monetary policy statement and, if sustained, will increase tradables inflation and promote more balanced growth.

GDP in the June quarter grew broadly in line with expectations, following relative weakness in the previous 2 quarters. Employment growth has been strong and gdp growth is projected to strengthen, with a weaker outlook for housing & construction offset by accommodative monetary policy, the continued high terms of trade and increased fiscal stimulus.

The bank has incorporated preliminary estimates of the impact of new government policies in 4 areas: new government spending, the KiwiBuild programme, tighter visa requirements and increases in the minimum wage. The impact of these policies remains very uncertain.

House price inflation has moderated due to loan:value ratio restrictions, affordability constraints, reduced foreign demand and a tightening in credit conditions. Low house price inflation is expected to continue, reinforced by new government policies on housing.

Annual CPI inflation was 1.9% in September, although underlying inflation remains subdued. Non-tradables inflation is moderate but expected to increase gradually as capacity pressures increase. Tradables inflation has increased due to the lower $NZ & higher oil prices, but is expected to soften in line with projected low global inflation. Overall, CPI inflation is projected to remain near the midpoint of the target range and longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored at 2%.

Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.

Link: Monetary policy statement

Attribution: Bank release.

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Tripartite economic summit opens in Guangzhou

Auckland mayor Phil Goff leads a group of 97 delegates representing 70 Auckland businesses taking part in the third Tripartite Economic Alliance summit which opens today in Guangzhou, China.

2 councillors, finance & performance committee chair Ross Clow and planning committee chair Chris Darby, are also in the delegation.

Mr Goff said before leaving for China: “This will be Auckland’s largest ever trade delegation. Businesses clearly see the advantage of interacting with our 2 sister cities at the summit. Each are gateway cities to 2 of the most important & powerful economies in the world.”

The Guangzhou summit is the last of 3, which started in Los Angeles in 2015 and continued in Auckland last year. However, the 3 city councils have agreed to extend the special relationship for another 3 years with opportunities for interaction between them outside the formal summit process.

The Guangzhou summit runs for 3 days, allowing Auckland businesses to generate partnership & investment opportunities with counterparts from Los Angeles & Guangzhou, and for Auckland to showcase the city as a destination for investment & tourism.

Mr Goff said: “Auckland is New Zealand’s international city and represents 38% of the country’s gdp. As our city grows, investment & business partnerships become increasingly important to it & New Zealand’s future.

“Guangzhou & Los Angeles are global economic powerhouses, as well as a major source of migrants, students & tourists. The formal partnership between our cities creates opportunities for us to facilitate the continued growth of local businesses & our economy.

“The summits provide real economic value & jobs to Auckland, with deals ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars sealed as a result of the past 2 events.

“For Auckland, those agreements mean more jobs, business expansion, talent coming to our city, and New Zealand innovation & expertise finding new opportunities offshore.”

Mr Goff said the Bank of NZ, Huawei Technologies Co Ltd and NZ Trade & Enterprise were supporting Auckland’s delegation to the summit this year, which had enabled about half the cost of Auckland’s delegation budget to be met by the private sector.

One point of interest for Mr Goff is the Haizhu electric tram: “We are working with government to bring light rail to Auckland as quickly as possible. It’s a good chance to learn from the success of other light rail systems around the world and consider what is the best system for Auckland.”

Link: Summit & tripartite economic alliance

Attribution: Mayoral release.

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Fed holds rate, issues one-liner on its debt mountain

The US Federal Reserve’s open market committee decided overnight to hold its federal funds rate in the range of 1-1.25%.

It issued a one-liner on its debt reduction programme. You can check the background on that at the foot of this article.

The committee’s position, now fairly forlorn as its hope for an inflation rise keeps not happening, but with the jobs picture stronger as the unemployment rate strengthened by 0.2% in September to 4.2%: “The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labour market conditions and a sustained return to 2% inflation.”

Below is the committee’s full statement on the US economy:

“Information received since the committee met in September indicates that the labour market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions.

“Although the hurricanes caused a drop in payroll employment in September, the unemployment rate declined further. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. Gasoline prices rose in the aftermath of the hurricanes, boosting overall inflation in September; however, inflation for items other than food & energy remained soft.

“On a 12-month basis, both inflation measures have declined this year and are running below 2%. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

“Consistent with its statutory mandate, the committee seeks to foster maximum employment & price stability. Hurricane-related disruptions & rebuilding will continue to affect economic activity, employment & inflation in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term.

“Consequently, the committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labour market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2% in the near term but to stabilise around the committee’s 2% objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

“In view of realised & expected labour market conditions & inflation, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1.25%. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labour market conditions and a sustained return to 2% inflation.

“In determining the timing & size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will assess realised & expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment & 2% inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labour market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures & inflation expectations, and readings on financial & international developments.

“The committee will carefully monitor actual & expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

“The balance sheet normalisation programme initiated in October is proceeding.”

Background to “normalisation”

In its June release, the committee said it was “maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt & agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

“The committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalisation programme this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. This programme… would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities.”

The normalisation programme has 2 parts to it, as outlined in June:

  • For payments of principal that the Federal Reserve receives from maturing Treasury securities, the committee anticipates that the cap will be $US6 billion/month initially and will increase in steps of $US6 billion at 3-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches $US30 billion/month.
  • For payments of principal that the Federal Reserve receives from its holdings of agency debt & mortgage-backed securities, the committee anticipates that the cap will be $US4 billion/month initially and will increase in steps of $US4 billion at 3-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches $US20 billion per month.

On that basis, the total reduction should now be $US10 billion/month.

14 June 2017: Federal Reserve board & federal open market committee release economic projections from the June 13-14 FOMC meeting
FOMC issues addendum to the policy normalisation principles & plans

Attribution: Fed release.

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10% becomes 5.9%, just like that

This little snippet at the foot of today’s building consents release from Statistics NZ shows how kind I was to readers and to statisticians by declining to use seasonally adjusted figures many years ago.

In a note to today’s release, Statistics NZ said: “We have improved the way we calculate the seasonally adjusted number of new homes consented. We now include an adjustment for the timing of Easter. As a result, the seasonally adjusted increase in the number of new homes consented in August 2017 has been revised down from 10% to 5.9%.”

For its latest seasonal adjustment calculations, Statistics NZ said: “The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented fell 2.3%, following a 5.9% rise in August. For houses only, the seasonally adjusted number fell 1.7%, following a 3.1% fall in August.

“The trend for the number of new dwellings consented increased, and is at its highest level since early 2004.”

I haven’t gone back to Statistics NZ to ask what Easter has to do with August. Such a large revision – what looks like an admission of a 41% miscalculation, and lacking a real, credible explanation – will keep me wary of these adjustments for some time yet.

In these columns, you’ll continue to get comparisons from year to year, one month against the same month. Or, as I noted in May 2008, my solution when I quoted then-Government Statistician Geoff Bascand, showing the difficulty Statistics NZ had with seasonal adjustments: “The earlier occurrence of the Easter holidays in March, rather than April, may have contributed to this increase, although the exact effect is difficult to measure.”

My solution was to lump the 2 months together, March + April, when comparing hotel occupancy, for example.

But the changes are refreshing

Government Statistician Liz MacPherson warned of this month’s change in the September release on building consents, under the heading Upcoming changes to seasonally adjusted & trend series. I’ve repeated her message below:

“We are improving the way we calculate the seasonally adjusted & trend series in building consents issued. These changes will be introduced in the September 2017 release (published on 31 October 2017).

“All seasonally adjusted series will now include an adjustment for the timing of Easter. This will account for when Easter moves between March & April. This change will affect the entire time series.

“We are also updating the way we treat outliers in the trend for the value of non-residential building consents. Currently, we exclude consents with a value of $50 million or more from the calculation of the trend. This threshold will be increased to $100 million, backdated to 2006. Currently, these outliers are only excluded from the monthly trend. For consistency, we will now also exclude these outliers from the quarterly trend.”

Despite my scepticism about some calculations, I’m enjoying the changes emanating under new leadership at Statistics NZ. They’re aimed at giving more people better information that they can use – a worthy cause.

Statistics NZ: Building consents issued seasonal adjustment and trend changes in September 2017

Related story today: New home consents jammed in 1000/year range

Earlier stories:
2 October 2017: A new understanding of seasonal adjustment
13 May 2008: Campers lift March accommodation use, but hotel & motel occupancy down
1 February 2008: Statistics, lies & don’t knows
2 September 2006: Pick an apple, an orange and you can concoct statistical fruitcake
13 May 2006: Late Easter takes March occupancy down
8 May 2006: Don’t believe everything you read…

Attribution: Statistics NZ release.

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Auckland population growth spills into Northland & Waikato

Auckland’s population grew by 2.6% in the last year, and Statistics NZ said yesterday the regions immediately north & south, Northland & Waikato, both grew by 2.4%.

Statistics NZ estimated that New Zealand’s population grew by 100,400 in the year to June, including 72,300 immigrants. According to Statistics NZ’s population clock, it’s now 4.828 million.

Auckland’s population grew by 42,700 over the year to June to 1.66 million.
The only region where the population declined was the West Coast, down from 33,100 in 2012 to 32,500 in 2016, and down another 100 this year.

Statistics NZ said half the growth in the last year was in the 15–39 age group, due to the impact of migration: “About two-thirds of the gain from net migration this year was in this age range. The population growth in this age group has affected regional age structures, where 5 of the regions with the highest net migration either had a stable or decreasing median age in the last year.

“Tasman had the highest median age of the 16 regions, at 46.1 years in 2017. In contrast, Auckland had the lowest median age, with half the population under 33.9 years.”

Attribution: Statistics NZ release.

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Exiting Kiwi number shrinks again, but annual net migrant inflow slips

The net emigration rate of New Zealand citizens shrank by another 470 in the year to September, while the net immigration rate of non-citizens rose by 560.

For the last 3 Septembers, returning Kiwis have outnumbered those leaving long-term – from 44 2 years ago to 524, then 351. For the September year, departing Kiwis numbered 52-62,000 in 2011-13, but have been below 40,000/year for the last 4 years, down to 33,348 last year and rising slightly this year to 33,656.

The result has been a decline in the net outflow of Kiwis from almost 40,000/year 5 years ago to just below 10,000 3 years ago, and continuing steadily downward to 2108 last year, 1637 this year.

On the non-citizen side of the ledger, the net inflow dipped this September to 6467 (7380 a year earlier).

The number of immigrants stopping in Auckland in September fell slightly to 5283 (5365), while departures rose to 1734 (1424). For the year, arrivals in Auckland were up by nearly 6000 and departures also rose, by 2000, for a net gain of 36,404 (32,768).

The bald statistics:

Net migrant inflow September: 6818 (7904 in September last year)
Net migrant inflow September year: 70,986 (69,954 for the previous 12 months; 72,402 in the 12 months to this July, 72,072 to August)
Migrants into Auckland in September: 5283 (5365)
Migrants into Auckland in September year: 59,618 (53,844)
Net Auckland inflow in September: 3549 (3941)
Net Auckland inflow in September year: 36,404 (32,768)
Net outflow to Australia in September: 155 (447)
Net outflow to Australia in September year: 66 inflow (1965 outflow).

Earlier story:
22 September 2017: An immigration pause – or a turning point?

Attribution: Statistics NZ.

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Housing rises & transport falls maintain modest inflation increase

CPI – the consumers price index – rose 0.5% from the June quarter to September, and rose 1.9% for the year, pushed up by housing-related rises and held down by transport-related falls.

There was nothing unusual about the rise from one quarter to the next. Statistics NZ’s graph shows only one quarterly rise reaching 1% since June 2011, and 5 quarterly falls along the way. The March 2017 quarter was notable for a rise from the same quarter a year earlier exceeding 2% (it was 2.2%), falling back to 1.7% and then 1.9% in the 2 most recent quarters.

The index was last in bigger-than-2% territory in September 2011, with a 4.6% annual rise as New Zealand began to emerge from the depth of the global financial crisis. Since then, housing prices have skyrocketed, without great effect on the CPI.

In the latest quarter, however, Statistics NZ said:

  • Rents rose 0.6% from June & 2.2% over a year
  • The cost of construction of new homes, excluding land, rose 1.1% from June, 5.4% for the year
  • Council rates rose 3.5% from June, 3.7% for the year, and
  • Home insurance rose 6.1% from June, 12% for the year.

Regional shifts in rent & construction

Auckland had the lowest annual increases in rent & construction costs since March 2015.

In Canterbury, rents fell 1.9% for the year, the fifth consecutive annual decrease in rents for the region. The 2.6% increase for the year for construction of new homes (excluding land) was the lowest annual increase since September 2010, before the Canterbury earthquakes.

In Wellington, construction costs rose 1.4% from June, 3.2% for the year, and rents rose 1.0% from June, 3.7% for the year. That was the largest annual increase in Wellington rents since December 2008.

Among other price shifts:

  • Petrol fell 1.7% from June but rose 4.5% for the year
  • International airfares fell 5.5% for the quarter, 2.7% for the year
  • Vehicle relicensing fees fell 8% for the quarter & year
  • Prices for second-hand cars fell 0.9% from June but rose 1.8% for the year

Updated CPI for the December quarter

Statistics NZ said it would release the December quarter CPI a week later than usual because it’s implementing a review of the index. It carries out these reviews every 3 years to ensure the index remains relevant. The next quarterly index will be published on 25 January 2018, and a paper on the review will be released on 12 January.

Attribution: Statistics NZ release & tables.

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Reserve Bank plays unchanged game, and Peters unimpressed

The Reserve Bank left the official cashrate unchanged at 1.75% yesterday.

The bank’s acting governor, Grant Spencer, said: ‘”Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

This nudging along of economic policy doesn’t sit well with the man with the most influential say on future directions, NZ First leader Winston Peters.

Winston Peters.

While voters who believe we’re still in the era of first-past-the-post elections have been busily writing letters to editors explaining that, as National got most votes, it therefore won and should govern, Mr Peters has issued a few statements indicating likely shifts in economic direction:

  • He said the decision to hold the official cashrate at 1.75% “maintains the tone of complacency on New Zealand’s economic outlook”
  • He criticised National for taxing the NZ Superannuation Fund and not making taxpayer contributions for 10 years, and
  • 2 days before the election, he issued a statement affirming his view that the immigration level was too high, criticising the National government “for deluding the public these migrants are skilled”.

Those who see Mr Peters as a negative poser should find his advocacy for change refreshing, because all his policies of the last week have been about improving economic performance.

He issued succinct statements on what the Super Fund ought to be doing, how the Government ought to be supporting it and how international markets bloated with ultra-cheap money are riding for a fall.

Crucially, Mr Peters might change the view commonly held by Western central bankers, including New Zealand’s, that the policy of printing money to stimulate economies is flawed.

But first the Reserve Bank view, from Mr Spencer:

Grant Spencer.

“Global economic growth has continued to improve in recent quarters. However, inflation & wage outcomes remain subdued across the advanced economies and challenges remain with ongoing surplus capacity. Bond yields are low, credit spreads have narrowed and equity prices are near record levels. Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward.

“The trade-weighted exchange rate has eased slightly since the August Reserve Bank monetary policy statement. A lower $NZ would help to increase tradables inflation and deliver more balanced growth.

“GDP in the June quarter grew in line with expectations, following relative weakness in the previous 2 quarters. While exports recovered, construction was weaker than expected. Growth is projected to maintain its current pace going forward, supported by accommodative monetary policy, population growth, elevated terms of trade and fiscal stimulus.

“House price inflation continues to moderate due to loan:value ratio restrictions, affordability constraints and a tightening in credit conditions. This moderation is expected to continue, although there remains a risk of resurgence in prices given population growth & resource constraints in the construction sector.

“Annual CPI inflation eased in the June quarter, but remains within the target range. Headline inflation is likely to decline in coming quarters, reflecting volatility in tradables inflation. Non-tradables inflation remains moderate but is expected to increase gradually as capacity pressure increases, bringing headline inflation to the midpoint of the target range over the medium term. Longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at around 2%.

“Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

If you think those closing words are familiar, you’re right: they’re identical to the bank’s closing paragraph in its March statement.

Peters on Reserve Bank

Mr Peters saw less of the smoothing, more a likelihood of troubled times internationally: “Beneath the veneer of stability, large risks are lurking in the global economy. The prolonged era of ultra-cheap money has created expectations that this unprecedented period will continue forever. Fed by cheap money, share & property markets are at record levels and have a long way to fall. In particular, the US share market has had an amazing run with barely a hiccup. In China, debt levels are staggering.

“Irrational exuberance rules. It is impossible to predict when, but something will go wrong and New Zealand should be prepared.”

On the Super Fund

The NZ Super Fund reported a 20.7% return for the year on Wednesday, but Mr Peters went behind that performance to look at a gigantic loss brought about by 2 National acts: “National should apologise to New Zealanders for robbing their NZ Super nest egg,” he said.

“Taxing the NZ Superannuation Fund, and not making taxpayer contributions for 10 years is a serious economic loser.

“The magnificent 20.7% return achieved by the fund in the year to 30 June will help meet future demand for NZ Super, but the nest egg could have been so much bigger if the National government had kept its hands off it.

“In 2015, then Finance Minister Bill English said: ‘Over time, along with the other funds, it will become a more & more significant part of the economy’. That’s ironic given he started taxing it in 2014.

“NZ First would encourage the fund’s managers to invest in infrastructure in New Zealand so it works for New Zealand’s long-term interests.”

On immigration

As for the high net immigration level – 73,500 in the year to August – Mr Peters said it would ensure housing, health services & infrastructure would continue at bursting point.

“The Government deludes the public these migrants are skilled – it’s a myth, most of them are unskilled & drawn to this country in many cases by the generosity of our social services.

“Few countries in the world are as generous, or soft, as we are. Where are the new hospitals, the extra doctors & nurses, the new schools & general infrastructure to cope with all these people?

“New Zealanders find it harder to get a job with the influx from overseas. The fact is, every year we are creating a city the size of Rotorua and the country cannot handle it. Even the Prime Minister [Bill English, in a reference 2 days before the election] admits they can’t keep up with population growth.”

Earlier stories:
22 September 2017: An immigration pause – or a turning point?
6 September 2017: Updated: Reserve Bank sublets to help pay the rent
5 July 2017: Super fund explains tilting strategy
9 June 2017: Reserve Bank raises question of new debt:income loan limits
23 March 2017: Housing supply the main concern as Reserve Bank holds cashrate
30 September 2014: Super guardians pose some investment thoughts
29 September 2008: NZ Super Fund has $2 billion turnaround to $880 million loss

Attribution: Bank & Peters releases.

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An immigration pause – or a turning point?

The net annual inflow of migrants dropped back by 330 from July to August – not much, but 2 Australian indicators suggest it might be a turning point.

Those indicators (links below) are from Victoria, where demand for construction workers is increasing, and Western Australia, where recent minerals price shifts suggest the mining sector will soon start to pull out of its steep downturn.

Higher wages across the Tasman have long attracted Kiwis to Australia’s construction & mining sectors, and in the downturns many have come home. Prime Minister Bill English, apparently without paying attention to the unusual state of the Australian economy, expressed surprise during the election campaign at the high number of Kiwis coming home in this downturn. Mining exports collapsed.

An Australian upturn can also happen quickly. The mining sector has projects ready to proceed, waiting for a cyclical reversal of the price decline.

While the Australian economy has been badly affected by the mining downturn, it still managed a boom in house prices, helped by strong immigration and offshore speculators.

Net inflows of migrants have helped New Zealand grow, albeit at some notable costs, such as traffic congestion which has made travel in Auckland entirely unpredictable, and extreme pressure on the housing market, including extreme price support from speculators.

There is now an expectation, no matter who wins government in this election, that more houses will be built to meet population growth, especially in Auckland, and that much of the building sector workforce may have to be imported. That ignores other population & work flows, especially to Australia.

The Kiwi flow

The global financial crisis started to get underway in late 2007, and was severe for New Zealand through to 2011. Australia, unusually, stayed in a recession for another 5 years.

New Zealanders didn’t worry too much about all that for several years, as Kiwi emigrant numbers stayed above 40,000/year through to 2013, getting above 62,000 for the August 2013 year. For the last 4 years, however, the outward flow has fallen below 40,000/year.

Most of that flow has been to Australia, above 50,000 in some 12-month periods 4 to 5 years ago, dwindling to a trickle in some recent months. In August years, the net outflow of NZ citizens to Australia from 2007-14 totalled 215,000, but in the last 3 years totalled only 14,000.

Looking at trends

Statistics NZ’s migration figures for August show a net inflow for the month of 5120, down from 5450 last year, and a net inflow for the year of 72,072, up from 69,119 for the previous 12 months but down by 330 from the 72,402 in the 12 months to July.

Long-term migrant arrivals tend to drop off slightly from July to August and they’ve done that again this year, though the inflow this July made it over the 10,000 mark (to 10,014) after nudging it in the previous 2 Augusts (9950 last year, 9942 2 years ago).

Exits had been in the range of 4500-4600 over the last 3 Augusts, but jumped to 4894 this time.

In annual terms, from a low point in the August 2010 year of 82,106 arrivals, the number climbed in large jumps over the last 5 years – over 90,000 in 2013, then to almost 104,000, to almost 118,000, to 125,000 and this year to 132,153.

Exits exceeded 87,000 in 2012, then dropped in the next 4 years to 77,500, 60,400, 57,600 & 55,900, but have jumped in the last 12 months to 60,081.

The net results have been a big turnaround from an outflow of 4118 in the August 2012 year to inflows of 12,800, 43,500, 60,300, 69,100, and this year to 72,072 – a net gain of 257,812 in 5 years.

About 25,000 migrants have arrived from Australia in each of the last 3 years, 1900/August month in the first 2 of those years, dropping to 1703 this August. Exits have closely matched those numbers, so in the last 3 August years there was a net outflow of 529 Australia followed by net inflows of 1759 & 226.

The annual net inflow from Asia fell from 36,124 last year to 32,750 this year, including 9859 (10,029 last year) from China, 7278 (10,631) from India (down because of student visa changes), 4649 (4907) from the Philippines.

The net inflow from Europe rose from 14,021 to 16,956 – 3100-3400 each year from both France & Germany, the UK up from 4588 to 6725.

Net US numbers for the year rose from 1199 to 1983, and South Africa from 3415 to 4931.

Into Auckland

The number of immigrants citing Auckland as their destination has continued to grow – 4683 in August (4430), 59,700 for the August year (53,365). Over the 3 years, exits from Auckland have been in the range of 21-23,000.

The net inflow to Auckland rose marginally this August to 2754 (2711), but has climbed annually to 36,796 (32,187 last year, 27,862 the year before).

The bald statistics:

Net migrant inflow August: 5120 (5450 in August last year)
Net migrant inflow August year: 72,072 (69,119; 72,402 in the 12 months to this July)
Migrants into Auckland in August: 4683 (4430)
Migrants into Auckland in August year: 59,700 (53,365)
Net Auckland inflow in August: 2754 (2711)
Net Auckland inflow in August year: 36,796 (32,187)
Net outflow to Australia in August: 330 (22 inflow)
Net outflow to Australia in August year: 1464 (2588).

The West Australian, 16 September 2017: Boom in jobs as resources takes off
Sydney Morning Herald, 16 September 2017: Lack of tradies causes two-year home building delay

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables.

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Migration – quick numbers

Below are the basic migration numbers for the month of August & 12 months to August. I’ll fill in some gaps this afternoon with a longer story, including a few inputs likely to change the trend.

The bald statistics:

Net migrant inflow August: 5120 (5450 in August last year)
Net migrant inflow August year: 72,072 (69,119; 72,402 in the 12 months to this July)
Migrants into Auckland in August: 4683 (4430)
Migrants into Auckland in August year: 59,700 (53,365)
Net Auckland inflow in August: 2754 (2711)
Net Auckland inflow in August year: 36,796 (32,187).
Net outflow to Australia in August: 330 (22 inflow)
Net outflow to Australia in August year: 1464 (2588).

Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.


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